特朗普时代美联储角色将发生何种转变
Three and a half decades ago, a Yale student called Adam Glick tried to persuade his fellow students to embrace the freshly elected president Ronald Reagan.
35年前，耶鲁大学(Yale)学生亚当.格利克(Adam Glick)试图说服同学接受刚刚当选为总统的罗纳德.里根(Ronald Reagan)。
It was hard.
那很难。
Back in 1980 most of the establishment — and gilded students — sneered at the idea of a former B-list Hollywood actor in the Oval Office.
在上世纪80年代，大多数建制派——以及家境较好的学生——嘲笑前好莱坞二流演员入主椭圆形办公室的想法。
Almost nobody guessed that Reagan might end up a Republican icon.
几乎没人能猜到里根最终会成为共和党的偶像人物。
Mr Glick is now a successful asset manager running a multibillion-dollar private fund.
格利克如今是一位成功的资产管理者，经营着一只数十亿美元的私募基金。
He feels a sense of déjà vu.
他现在有似曾相识的感觉。
The election of Donald Trump has left elites shocked and outraged — and Mr Glick is once again trying to tell friends (and fellow financiers) this is a mistake.
唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)当选总统让精英们感到震惊而愤怒——而格利克再一次尝试着告诉朋友（以及金融界同行）这是不对的。
Instead, he insists that what investors need to recognise is that the wisdom of crowds has given the next president a powerful mandate for change.
相反，他坚称，投资者需要认识到，群众的智慧赋予了下一任总统推行改变的强大授权。
As a result, in 30 years’ time, historians might see 2016, like 1980, as a big economic policy inflection point.
其结果是，再过30年，历史学家或许会把2016年视为重大的经济政策拐点，就像1980年一样。
Can this optimistic interpretation of events be correct? In some ways, it seems hard to believe.
对当前事件的这种乐观解读有可能正确吗？在某些方面，这似乎很难相信。
On the campaign trail Mr Trump seemed very different from Reagan.
在竞选之路上，特朗普似乎与里根截然不同。
He has no experience of public office.
他没有担任公职的经历。
He projects anger rather than optimism about an American morning.
他渲染愤怒，而不是关于美国清晨的乐观态度。
He does not seem inclined to collaborate with enemies.
他不像是有意与敌人合作。
The Republican elite (mostly) shunned him.
共和党精英们（多数）看不起他。
His personality is at best undisciplined and at worst abusive.
他的个性往好了说是散漫、无纪律，往坏了说是辱骂他人。
But one striking detail about this week’s events is that his victory speech was calm and conciliatory.
但是本周的事件中有一个令人瞩目的细节：他的胜选演讲平静而且和缓。
That might — just possibly — suggest Mr Trump the president will not be quite the same as Mr Trump the angry candidate.
这或许（只是有可能）表明，身为总统的特朗普不会和身为愤怒候选人的特朗普完全一样。
A second important detail is that the president-elect, like Reagan before him, appears to recognise that he needs to rely on advisers to compensate for his lack of policy knowledge.
第二个重要的细节是，就像之前的里根一样，这位当选总统似乎意识到，他需要依靠顾问来弥补他在政策知识上的不足。
And if you look at the advisory team around him, it is possible to see a policy platform emerging that might indeed turn out to be bold.
而如果你看看他身边的顾问团队，就有可能看到，一个真正大胆的政策平台或许会浮出水面。
Nobody should describe this platform as Reaganism 2.0 or a free-market revolution.
没人会把这个平台形容为里根主义2.0或自由市场革命。
Mr Trump is deeply protectionist, reluctant to reform benefits such as Social Security and favours an extensive infrastructure programme.
特朗普是坚定的保护主义者，不愿改革社会保障之类的福利，并且支持大手笔的基础设施项目。
If implemented in full, which seems unlikely, these bold pledges would add $10tn to the public debt in the next decade.
如果完全实施（似乎不太可能），这些大胆承诺将在未来十年增加10万亿美元的公共债务。
This (rightly) appals conservatives.
这吓坏了保守派，而且理应如此。
But Mr Trump’s advisers are also batting around ideas that Reagan’s heirs can applaud.
但是特朗普的顾问们也在介绍一些里根的信徒可能称赞的构想。
They want to cut personal taxes and slash corporate tax rates from 35 per cent to 15 per cent, a move that Anthony Scaramucci, one adviser to Mr Trump, thinks could boost corporate earnings by 30 per cent.
他们想要削减个人税收，并把企业所得税税率从35%下调至15%，特朗普的顾问之一安东尼.斯卡拉穆齐(Anthony Scaramucci)认为，此举有望提高企业盈利30%。
Advisers such as Tom Barrack, of Colony Capital, want to fund infrastructure with public-private partnerships.
柯罗尼资本(Colony Capital)的汤姆.巴拉克(Tom Barrack)等顾问希望以公私合作伙伴关系的方式为基建提供资金。
They want to use tax incentives to repatriate companies’ overseas cash piles.
他们想利用税收激励来鼓励企业把囤积在海外的现金汇回美国。
They also plan widespread deregulation, ranging from a bonfire of energy rules to a reversal of new fiduciary rules for asset managers and a repeal of Obamacare, the US’s healthcare act.
他们还计划大范围放宽管制，从能源规则篝火、到逆转针对资产管理公司的新的受托规则、以及废止奥巴马医改(Obamacare)，美国的医保法律。
This may look like a bewildering mix, knitted together only with populism.
这可能看起来像是令人困惑的组合——仅靠民粹主义编织到一起。
But what links them is a deep conviction that governments cannot reignite growth by relying on monetary policy alone.
但是贯穿这些主张的是一种深层次的信念，即政府无法仅仅依靠货币政策来重新激发增长。
Rather, fiscal and supply-side reforms are needed.
相反，政府需要进行财政和供应面改革。
Indeed, Mr Trump’s advisers are so scornful of ultra-loose monetary policy that some are keen to push for the early exit of Janet Yellen as US Federal Reserve chair.
的确，特朗普的顾问如此仇视超宽松的货币政策，以至于一些人热衷于让珍妮特.耶伦(Janet Yellen)提早卸任美联储(Fed)主席。
As a result, when historians look back at this week, they may well conclude that the most important inflection point is not about deregulation or tax cuts.
因此，当未来历史学家回顾本周时，他们很可能得出结论认为，最重要的转折点并不关乎放宽管制或减税。
Instead, the pendulum swing that matters is about the role of central banks.
相反，重要的改变关乎央行的角色。
After all, the howl of voter anger shows with cruel clarity that it was a mistake to expect central bank policy experiments alone to deliver sustainable economic growth.
毕竟，选民的愤怒发泄无情地表明，指望单纯依靠央行政策实验来实现可持续经济增长的想法是错误的。
That might now pave the way for a long-awaited recognition that central banks cannot — and should not — be the only game in town, to quote Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz.
现在，这可能为央行不能、也不应该成为城里的唯一游戏——借用安联(Allianz)首席经济顾问穆罕默德.埃尔-埃利安(Mohamed El-Erian)的话——这一期待已久的共识铺平道路。
Fiscal and supply-side policy is now centre stage.
财政政策和供应面政策如今站上了舞台中央。
If so, this is an inflection point that is long overdue.
若果真如此，这将是一个早就该来的转折点。
There is no guarantee that Mr Trump can corral his team to deliver; his personality may in the end prove too erratic, and his advisers’ economic policy dreams may ultimately collapse into foreign or domestic strife.
没人能保证特朗普有能力指挥其团队实现这些：他的个性最终可能被证明过于任性，其顾问的经济政策梦想或许最终沦为国际或国内冲突。
But the fact that the stock market has rallied shows that Mr Glick is not the only asset manager who thinks he can smell a domestic economic policy turning point.
但是股市上涨的事实表明，格利克并不是唯一认为自己嗅到国内经济政策拐点的资产经理。
Yes, he may turn out to be misguided.
没错，他可能最终被证明受到了误导。
But investors discount this possibility at their peril, particularly after a year in which the elites have been wrongfooted so many times.
但是投资者忽视这种可能性或许也会尝到苦果，特别是在精英们多次被打乱阵脚的今年。
