特朗普将葬送美国治下的和平

You hear two things about the US in national capitals around the world. The first is that America is no longer the superpower it was; the second that they have put everything important on hold until they see the outcome of the US presidential election. Now add a third: a Donald Trump presidency is beyond their worst nightmares.

你在世界各国的首都会听到两件事。一是美国不再是曾经的那个超级大国；二是他们已把所有重要的事情暂停，等着看美国总统选举结果。如今可以再加上第三件事：唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)当选总统比他们最糟糕的噩梦还要糟。

American declinism has long been overdone. The US remains the sole superpower: the only nation with the capacity to intervene just about everywhere. It stands at the apex of a formidable system of alliances. What has changed during the past decade or so is that there are now some checks — shifting power balances internationally and the political mood domestically.

认为美国衰落的看法长期言过其实。美国依然是唯一的超级大国：它是唯一有能力干预全球差不多任何地方的国家。它处于一个令人敬畏的联盟体系的顶端。过去10年左右发生的变化在于，现在有了某些制衡——不断变化的国际力量均衡和国内政治情绪。

That said, there is no one else to match the US. It will be decades, if at all, before China equals its military reach and technological prowess. Washington remains an indispensable guardian of global order. So yes, it is for Americans to decide who they want in the White House, but the choice matters hugely for everyone else.

话虽如此，其他任何国家都无法与美国匹敌。中国的军事触角和技术实力要赶上美国还需要数十年时间——如果有那么一天的话。美国政府仍然是全球秩序不可或缺的监护者。因此，虽然说起来道理没错，谁入主白宫要由美国人民决定，但是这一选择对其他所有国家都至关重要。

Never more so now that Mr Trump has become the presumptive Republican nominee. Lots can be said about his triumph in the primary race: about how the Grand Old Party of Abraham Lincoln became the author of its own destruction; about how a real estate developer turned reality television star tapped into rising anxiety and anger about stagnant living standards and cultural dislocation that for many Americans has become the story of globalisation; and, sadly, how the media half-conspired in the process by treating him for much of the time as lucrative box office entertainment.

既然特朗普已成为假定的共和党提名人，这个问题空前突出。对于他在初选阶段的胜利，有许多可以点评的地方：亚伯拉罕•林肯(Abraham Lincoln)的共和党怎样成为自身的掘墓人；一位房地产开发商出身的电视真人秀明星，是如何利用人们对生活水准停滞和文化上的错位日益焦虑和愤怒的情绪的——在许多美国人心目中，这种停滞和文化错位已变成全球化的同义词；还有就是一个令人悲哀的事实，即在整个过程中，媒体在多数时间里是怎样把他当做票房娱乐的摇钱树，从而成为半个共谋的。

It is true also that populist politicians of right and left across the democratic world are playing similar tunes. Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s National Front, promotes the same Islamophobia, as does the rightwing Alternative für Deutschland party. In Britain, the pro-Brexit camp is relying on popular hostility towards the political elites to wrench the country out of its own continent.

同样没错的是，举目全球民主国家，右翼和左翼的民粹主义政客都唱着类似的论调。法国国民阵线(National Front)领导人马琳•勒庞(Marine Le Pen)宣扬着同样的对伊斯兰的恐惧，右翼的德国新选择党(Alternative für Deutschland)也同样如此。在英国，支持英国退出欧盟(EU)的阵营也在依靠人们对政治精英的普遍憎恶，以达到把英国剥离其所在的大陆的目的。

Politics tends to accommodate itself to events. The temptation now is to say that, well, maybe it would not be quite as bad as all that. Candidates always play to their base during the primaries before tacking back to the centre. Mr Trump would be no different. The point, though, is that this candidate is different. The presumptive nominee is not a conservative, nor even a Republican. His platform mixes leftwing economic populism with a singularly ugly rightwing nationalism. What passes for his foreign policy can best be described as bellicose isolationism. Walling off Mexico and barring Muslims from the US — these are not policies that can be easily unsaid.

政治倾向于使自己适应事件。目前的诱惑是说，或许情况没有上面说得这么糟糕。候选人总是在初选时迎合自己的基础选民，之后再退回中间立场。特朗普或许也同样如此。不过，问题在于这位候选人是不一样的。这位假定的提名人并不是保守派人士，甚至不算是共和党人。他的竞选平台夹杂着左翼的经济民粹主义和异常丑陋的右翼民族主义。对于号称是其外交政策的政见，最准确的形容是好斗的孤立主义。筑墙隔离墨西哥和把穆斯林挡在美国门外——这些都不是容易改口的政策。

Ah, you hear old-school Republicans respond, he cannot win in November. He has alienated 70 per cent of women and still higher proportions of Hispanics and African Americans. His personal disapproval ratings are off the scale. So the basic arithmetic condemns him to defeat. What really worries the Republican establishment is that he will bring down the rest of the party with him. The Democrats already have a fair chance of taking back control of the Senate. Mr Trump could surrender the House of Representatives.

哦，你听到老派的共和党人回答说，他赢不了11月份的选举。70%的妇女不喜欢他，西语裔和非裔美国人不喜欢他的比例更高。他的不支持率简直爆表。因此，简单的算术意味着他输定了。真正令共和党建制派担忧的是，他会连累全党与他一起倒霉。民主党已经有夺回参议院控制权的较好机会。特朗普可能把众议院也拱手让人。

True enough, it is one thing for Republicans to choose him as nominee, quite another for Americans to put him in the White House. And yet. If there has been another lesson from the primary race it is that opponents have consistently underestimated Mr Trump.

没错，共和党选他做候选人是一回事，美国人选他入主白宫则是另一回事。然而，如果说初选阶段还有什么教训的话，那就是特朗普的对手一直低估了他。

It is striking also that Republicans — those most confounded by Mr Trump — seem rather more certain than their Democrat opponents that he will blow up on the road to the election. Hillary Clinton would be a well-qualified president. Democrats know that does not make her a good candidate.

同样引人注目的是，共和党人（被特朗普搞得最狼狈的那些人）似乎比民主党竞争对手更确定，他将在问鼎白宫的路上折戟。希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)将是一位完全具备条件的总统。民主党人知道，这未必意味着她会是一个优秀的候选人。

So to Mr Trump’s foreign policy. The bumper sticker says it is all about making America great again. There would be no more pussy-footing around. Enemies, notably Isis, would not know what had hit them. Unpredictability, in Mr Trump’s book, is a strength. Mostly though, he would attach unapologetic nationalism to old-fashioned isolationism. He wants America’s allies in Europe and Asia to pay up or watch the US ship its forces back home. He is relaxed if nations such as Japan and South Korea respond to insecurity in East Asia by building their own nuclear bombs. He is an admirer of Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president. Trade agreements deemed damaging to US business and jobs — that means almost all of them — would be torn up, and new tariffs slapped on imports from China.

再回到特朗普的外交政策。他的招牌是，根本目的是让美国再度伟大。不会再缩手缩脚了。敌人（特别是“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(ISIS)）到死都不会知道是什么先进武器砸到他们头上。按照特朗普的逻辑，不可预测性是一种优势。然而，多数情况下，他只是会把毫无歉意的民族主义与陈腐的孤立主义搅在一起。他想要美国在欧洲和亚洲的盟友加大力度为国防买单，否则就会眼睁睁看着美国把部队撤回国内。如果日本和韩国等国通过制造自己的核弹对东亚的不安全作出回应，他不会觉得有问题。他是俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)的崇拜者。被视为对美国企业和就业有害的贸易协定（这意味着几乎全部协定）将被撕毁，新的关税将强加在中国输美产品上。

Put this all together and Mr Trump is proposing in effect the dismantling of the global architecture established by the US at the end of the second world war. The underlying assumption is that the Pax Americana has been an entirely altruistic venture, an international order gifted by a generous US to an ungrateful world.

综上所述，特朗普实际上正提议拆除美国在第二次世界大战结束时构建的全球架构。其根本假设是，“美国治下的和平”(Pax Americana)是一项完全利他的计划，是慷慨的美国向一个忘恩负义的世界馈赠全球秩序。

The hard-edged reality, of course, is that these rules and institutions have embedded US national interests in the international system. American prosperity and security cannot be separated from its preponderance of global power. This is why China and other rising states are now demanding a stronger voice in managing the system. Upending all this by packing up and going home would serve greatly to diminish US power. The decision lies with Americans, but such a choice would be bad for everyone.

当然，无情的现实是，这些规则和机构已经把美国的国家利益嵌入全球体系。美国的繁荣和安全不可能脱离其全球实力优势。这正是为何中国和其他崛起中的国家正要求在管理这个体系方面拥有更大话语权。美国收拾行李回家的做法颠覆了这一切，这将大大削弱美国的实力。这个决定要由美国人民做出，但选择特朗普对所有人都不利。