从肯尼迪到特朗普 美国全球战略的危险转变
It is symbolic and poignant that the election of Donald Trump was confirmed on the morning of November 9, 27 years to the day after the fall of the Berlin Wall.
唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)在11月9日早上被确认当选美国总统，这具有令人伤感的象征意义——27年前的这一天，柏林墙倒塌。
That was a moment of triumph for US leadership — and ushered in a period of optimism and expansion for liberal and democratic ideas around the world.
那是一个美国领导力胜利的时刻，还开启了一段令人乐观、自由和民主思想在世界各地传播的时期。
That era has been definitively ended by Mr Trump’s victory.
那个时期无疑随着特朗普的胜选而终结。
The electoral triumph of a race-baiting demagogue represents a profound blow to the prestige of US democracy — and thus to the cause of democracy around the world, which America has championed, on and off, since 1945.
一个打种族牌的煽动者赢得大选，代表着对美国民主体制威望的沉重打击，也是对世界各地民主事业的沉重打击——美国自1945年以来断断续续地捍卫着民主事业。
The most eloquent and moving statement of that American commitment was made by John F Kennedy in 1961 — Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, to assure the survival and the success of liberty.
美国作出的最精辟也最令人感动的承诺是约翰.肯尼迪(John F Kennedy)在1961年所说的：让每个国家都知道——不论它希望我们繁荣还是希望我们衰落——为确保自由的存在和自由的胜利，我们将付出任何代价，承受任何负担，应付任何艰难，支持任何朋友，反抗任何敌人。
The generosity, breadth and eloquence of Kennedy’s vision makes a sad contrast with the pinched nationalism of Mr Trump’s proclamation that — Our plan will put America first.
肯尼迪愿景的大气、广度和雄辩与特朗普那种小家子气的民族主义宣告构成了令人悲哀的对比——我们的计划将首先考虑美国。
Americanism not globalism will be our credo.
美国主义而非全球主义将是我们的信条。
The difference between these two visions is profound and ominous.
这两种愿景之间的差异是深远和不祥的。
It was not just idealism that led America’s postwar generation to commit to the protection of liberty around the world.
促使美国战后一代人承诺保护世界各地自由民主的，并不只是理想主义。
As Kennedy observed, his generation was tempered by war, disciplined by a hard and bitter peace.
正如肯尼迪所指出的，他们这代人在战争中受过锻炼，在艰难困苦的和平时期受过陶冶。
They make a stark contrast with the generation who have voted for Mr Trump — fattened by fast food and infantilised by reality television.
他们与当今这一代把特朗普选上台的美国人（因吃多了快餐食品而变得肥胖，因看多了真人秀节目而变得幼稚）不可同日而语。
The Kennedy generation had learnt bitter lessons from the Great Depression and the second world war.
肯尼迪那代人从大萧条(Great Depression)和二战汲取了惨痛的教训。
They knew that America First policies — those that sought to isolate the US from the problems of the wider world — had ultimately led to economic and political catastrophe.
他们知道，美国优先政策——那些寻求让美国对外部世界的问题不理不问的政策——最终导致经济和政治灾难。
So after 1945, a new generation of US leaders, both Republicans and Democrats, built an economic and security architecture for the world — based around US leadership and international institutions and alliances, such as Nato, the UN and the World Bank.
因此在1945年之后，美国新一代领导人（无论是共和党还是民主党人）为世界打造了一套经济和安全架构，其基础是美国的领导力以及国际机构和联盟，如北约(Nato)、联合国和世界银行(World Bank)。
Mr Trump has forgotten these lessons drawn from the experience of the 1930s, if he ever knew them.
特朗普忘记了从上世纪30年代汲取的这些教训——如果他曾经明白过这些教训的话。
He appears to have even more contempt for international bodies than for the institutions of America itself.
在他眼里，国际机构似乎比美国自己的机构更值得蔑视。
His proposed policies threaten to take an axe to the liberal world order that the US has supported and sustained for many decades.
他拟议的政策可能砍掉美国几十年来支持和捍卫的自由主义世界秩序。
In particular, he has challenged two of the main bipartisan principles that underpin America’s approach to the world.
尤其是，他挑战了支撑美国对外政策的两大跨党派原则：
The first is support for an open, international trading system.
一是支持一个开放的国际贸易体系；
The second is the commitment to the US-led alliances that underpin global security.
二是承诺维护以美国为首的联盟以支撑全球安全。
Mr Trump is the first avowed protectionist to be elected US president since before the second world war.
特朗普是自二战之前以来首个当选美国总统的公开的保护主义者。
He has promised to renegotiate America’s terrible trade deals, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement, and threatened to pull the US out of the World Trade Organisation.
他承诺重新谈判美国糟糕的贸易协定，比如《北美自由贸易协定》(NAFTA)，并威胁让美国退出世贸组织(WTO)。
He has also mooted tariffs as high as 45 per cent on Chinese goods.
他还提议对中国输美商品征收高达45%的关税。
If Mr Trump were to follow through on these threats, he would spark a global trade war and could well plunge the world into recession — similar to the depression of the 1930s, which was greatly deepened by America’s embrace of protectionism.
如果特朗普真的兑现这些威胁，他将引发全球贸易战，很可能让世界陷入衰退，类似于上世纪30年代的大萧条，那场萧条因美国采取保护主义而严重加剧。
