希拉里再度问鼎白宫的胜算

It was possibly the most anticipated declaration in US electoral history. Yet, for all the waiting, Hillary Clinton’s presidential launch was notably light on content. In her opening video, she said she would hit the road to “earn” America’s vote. That struck the right note. The first rule of Mrs Clinton’s second White House bid is that she must avoid giving any hint of entitlement. Beyond that, however, there is little sense of what Mrs Clinton would do if she won the presidency. Unless and until she sets this out, voters will be right to question her motives.

这可能是美国选举历史上最令人期待的一份声明了。不过，尽管等了这么久，希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的启动总统竞选的内容明显有些轻描淡写。她在开场白视频中表示，她将上路“赢得”美国的选票。她这么讲是恰到好处。希拉里第二次向白宫发起冲击的第一条准则，是她必须避免留下任何她有资格的暗示。不过，除此之外，目前还看不出来她如果获胜会如何施政。除非她把这一点阐述明白，选民们将有理由质疑她的动机。

The challenge is least steep on foreign policy. A former US secretary of state, Mrs Clinton will be the most experienced potential nominee in either party. Detractors argue that she achieved little of note in her four years in the job. That is unfair. While there are no groundbreaking treaties to which she can point, she helped to put in place President Barack Obama’s welcome course correction from George W Bush’s aggressive unilateralism.

挑战最小的是外交政策领域。作为美国前国务卿，在两党中来看希拉里都将是最有经验的潜在候选人。贬低她的人认为，她在4年任期中基本没有什么可圈可点。这一说法是不公平的。尽管她无法说自己达成了具有突破性的条约，但她帮助总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)扭转了小布什(George W Bush)的激进单边主义路线，回到了广为接受的正途。

Moreover, it was Mrs Clinton who framed Mr Obama’s “pivot to Asia”. The logic of this manoeuvre is enduring. Although the turmoil in the Middle East continues, this should not undermine the enhanced US focus on Asia. Mrs Clinton can also claim some credit for the Iran nuclear framework hammered out by John Kerry, her successor, earlier this month. She helped to orchestrate the sanctions that brought Iran to the negotiating table.

此外，奥巴马的“亚洲再平衡”(pivot to Asia)战略正是希拉里制定的。这一动作的逻辑是持久的。尽管中东混乱局势在继续，却不应妨碍美国加强对亚洲的关注。希拉里也可以声称其继任者约翰•克里(John Kerry)本月早些时候达成的伊朗核协议框架有她的一份功劳。她帮助策划了对伊制裁，才将伊朗拉到了谈判桌前。

As the 2016 campaign heats up, Mrs Clinton will be called on to defend Mr Obama’s legacy. She cannot repudiate its basic contours. For political reasons, she will be tempted to distance herself from the Iran deal in order to win the support of the more hawkish pro-Israel lobbyists. She should resist. Assuming it can be finalised, an Iran pact will be very much in America’s national interest. But Mrs Clinton can, and should, signal a greater willingness than Mr Obama to engage the world in more sustained US diplomacy. If she is mildly more hawkish than Mr Obama, that is no sin. Her centrist instincts are broadly aligned with the American public’s mood. As she has let it be known, Mr Obama’s “don’t’ do stupid stuff” mantra does not amount to a foreign policy doctrine.

随着2016年总统竞选活动的升温，希拉里将责无旁贷地捍卫奥巴马的遗产。她不可能批判其基本框架。出于政治原因，她应该抵制住诱惑，远离伊朗协议，以便赢得立场更强硬的亲以色列游说势力的支持。假设最终能敲定一份伊朗协议，那么它将非常符合美国的利益。但希拉里可以且应该展现示出，同奥巴马相比，她更愿意通过更具持续性的美国外交与世界互动。如果她的立场比奥巴马更显强硬，那也没什么不对。她偏向中间立场的本能基本上契合美国公众的情绪。正如她让外界知道的，奥巴马的“不做蠢事”原则并不构成一项外交政策信条。

Mrs Clinton’s bigger challenge is to convince voters that she will have more luck than Mr Obama in breaking Washington’s gridlock. In terms of substance, there is little to differentiate Mrs Clinton’s promise to revive the fortunes of the squeezed middle from the policies that Mr Obama has failed to push through Congress. Whether it is more infrastructure investment, better worker training, a corporate tax overhaul or early childhood learning, Mr Obama’s priorities are broadly the right ones. Mrs Clinton’s task is to convince voters she can create the “warm purple space” necessary for bipartisan action. The odds are not good. Fairly, or not, Mrs Clinton is just as polarising a figure as Mr Obama and the electoral map makes it very unlikely the Democrats will regain control of Congress in 2016. Mrs Clinton must somehow explain how she would better navigate a system that has all but broken down.

希拉里面临的更大挑战是让选民相信，在打破美国政治僵局方面，她比奥巴马运气好。本质上而言，希拉里提出的改善受挤压的中产命运的承诺，与奥巴马未能在国会获得通过的政策几乎没有什么差异。不管是扩大基础设施投资、加强员工培训、企业税改革还是儿童早期教育，奥巴马的优先任务基本上都是正确的。希拉里的任务是让选民相信她能够创造一个两党行动所必需的“温暖紫色空间”（“warm purple space”，在美国红色代表共和党，蓝色代表民主党，紫色意味着介于红和蓝之间，即偏中间立场，编者注）。不过她的胜算并不大。不管公平与否，希拉里只是一个与奥巴马一样立场很明确的人物，从目前的选情来看，民主党极不可能在2016年重新获得国会控制权。希拉里必须用某种方法解释她将如何更好的驾驭这个已几近瓦解的体系。

The big difference from 2008 is that Mrs Clinton is a strong favourite to win the Democratic nomination this time. That gives her the luxury of avoiding having to tack too far to the left in order to appeal to the liberal base. Mrs Clinton should use that leeway to prepare a solid general election campaign. Whether her Republican opponent is Jeb Bush, or someone else, the battle ahead is certain to be gruelling. Mrs Clinton is not destined to win. As she said on Sunday, the presidency is a job that must be earned.

与2008年的一个重要不同之处在于，这一次希拉里是一个备受青睐、有望赢得民主党提名的强有力人选。这让她可以不必为了迎合自由派的选民基础而过多的转向左派。希拉里应利用这种自由度制定一个稳健的大选计划。不管她的共和党对手是杰布•布什(Jeb Bush)还是其他人，未来的战斗必定艰苦。希拉里并非注定会赢。正如她在上周日所说的，总统职务本就是一份需要去努力争取的工作。