Lex专栏 中国股市的恐怖袭向世界

It is scarily circular when a company can lend money that may end up financing the buying of its own shares. At Chinese brokerages this might easily happen: nearly one-fifth of the free float of their shares is owned by investors who have borrowed money to buy them (otherwise known as buying on margin.) Across the market as a whole, margin lending in China’s mainland A share markets has quintupled in a year, to reach $350bn. That is one-tenth of the market’s free float, according to broker estimates.

如果一家公司贷款的成果只是为购买自己的股票融资，那将形成一个可怕的循环。这种事情可能正发生在中国券商身上：它们近五分之一的自由流通股由借钱购股（这被称为融资交易）的投资者所有。从整个市场来看，中国内地A股市场的融资规模在一年内增长4倍，至3500亿美元。根据券商的估计，这占市场自由流通股规模的十分之一。

Such statistics should frighten, and the market is finally scared. Last Friday the Shenzhen and Shanghai indices dropped 7 per cent apiece. A correction was overdue. Before last friday, Shanghai’s index had returned 40 per cent in the year to date. Racier mainland sibling Shenzhen — which holds more technology and healthcare companies — had doubled in the same period. The indices were no longer cheap. Shenzhen trades at 30 times 2016 earnings estimates, half again as much as the US Nasdaq, although it offers more earnings growth. Still, the growth prospects have not inspired the rally: that has mostly come from a liquidity-driven re-rating. Economic recovery has yet to materialise.

这些数据应该让人害怕，而市场终于感到害怕了。上周五，沪深股指各下跌7%。市场回调早该出现了。在上周五之前，上证综指今年迄今的回报率为40%。表现更为活跃的深证成指（拥有更多科技和医疗企业）同期翻了一番。中国的股指不再廉价。深圳股市2016年预期市盈率为30倍，两倍于美国纳斯达克指数(Nasdaq)，尽管它提供较高的盈利增速。然而，推动股市近期上涨的原因并非增长前景：此轮涨势的主要推动力是由流动性驱动的价值重估。经济复苏尚未成真。

Not all Chinese stocks look pricey. Further south languishes Hong Kong, where the China-related H share index trades on a mere 8 times 2016 earnings. It has returned a relatively paltry 11 per cent this year. With reason, perhaps. Its companies — mostly banks, property and carmakers — are not as sexy as cousins across the border (such as Shenzen’s Wuhan Golden Laser, trading on 666 times historic earnings).

并非所有中国股票看上去都很昂贵。再往南一点的香港股市处于低迷状态，与中国内地相关的H股指数的2016年预期市盈率只有8倍。该指数今年的回报率只有区区11%。这或许是有原因的。该指数的成分股（多数为银行、房地产公司和汽车制造商）并不像边界另一侧的深圳股市那样令人兴奋（例如深圳上市的武汉金运激光(Wuhan Golden Laser)，历史市盈率高达666倍）。

Away from the H shares, Hong Kong has more opportunities. Boring, old-fashioned businesses, including circuit board maker Kingboard Chemical, or glassmaker Xinyi Glass , trade on single-digit multiples of 2016 earnings. They yield nearly 4 per cent. Despite this week’s scary headlines, not all Chinese stocks should engender fear.

抛开H股，香港有着更多机遇。乏味、老派企业的2016年预期市盈率为个位数，包括电路板制造商建滔化工(Kingboard Chemical)或玻璃制造商信义玻璃(Xinyi Glass)。它们的股息收益率接近4%。尽管上周的新闻很可怕，但并非所有中国股票都应当带来恐惧。