Lex专栏 马化腾减持腾讯股票

Do not be fooled by the name: Tencent is neither a rapper nor a penny stock.

不要被名称糊弄了：腾讯(Tencent)既不是饶舌歌手，也不是细价股。

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index — comprisingHong Kong blue-chips as well as leading China “red” chips — has rallied by more than one-tenth this month, and returned one-quarter since January. The Chinese mobile gaming and messaging platform Tencent is enjoying the ride. The company, which owns the messaging app WeChat, began the year with a market capitalisation of $120bn. On Monday it was briefly valued at more than $200bn, larger than HSBC.

香港恒生指数(Hang Seng index)——包括香港蓝筹股和中国内地领先企业的红筹股——本月已上涨逾10%，今年1月以来累计上涨25%。身为中国手机网游和短信平台的腾讯的股价同大盘一起不断上涨。年初时，旗下拥有即时信息app微信(WeChat)的腾讯市值为1200亿美元，本周一，腾讯市值短暂超过2000亿美元，大于汇丰(HSBC)。

No surprise, then, that some people are taking profits. After market on Monday, the company revealed that its chairman and founder, Ma “Pony” Huateng, sold part of his holding last week, raising more than $400m. On Tuesday, sellers pushed the stock down as much as 8 per cent on big volumes as they followed him out. Mr Ma may not be the best lead to follow; last December he sold part of his holding at a price around one-fifth below current levels.

既然如此，有人获利回吐是不足为奇的。周一市场收盘后，该公司披露，其董事长和创始人马化腾(Pony Ma)上周减持了自己的持股，回笼逾4亿美元。周二，卖家争先恐后追随马化腾离场，一度导致股价下跌8%，成交量极高。马化腾也许不是值得效仿的天才操盘手，毕竟，去年12月他就抛出了自己持有的一部分公司股票，而那时的股价比目前水平低了五分之一。

But even for an investor who does not own nearly $20bn in Tencent stock, recent performance may seem overdone. The shares trade at 38 times forecast earnings (against 28 at the start of the year). But the company has plenty of potential. In the fourth quarter of last year, monthly active users on the messaging apps WeChat and Weixin reached 500m, 40 per cent higher than the previous year. More importantly, Tencent is finding new ways to make money from its users. Around 100m of them have linked their credit cards to Tencent’s payment services through Mobile QQ wallet and Weixin payment. Tie-ups with content providers such as the NBA and HBO offer opportunities for targeted advertising; revenue from this service, though still only one-eighth of the total, grew 75 per cent in the fourth quarter.

但是，即使是对不拥有近200亿美元腾讯股票的投资者来说，近期的表现也似乎有些过火。该股目前的预期市盈率达到38倍（年初为28倍）。但该公司大有潜力。去年第四季度，即时信息app微信的月活跃用户达到5亿，比上年高出40%。更重要的是，腾讯正找到新的方法从用户那里赚钱。大约1亿用户已通过手机QQ钱包和微信支付，将自己的信用卡与腾讯的支付服务绑定。与内容提供商如美国篮球职业联赛(NBA)和美国家庭电影频道(HBO)结盟，带来了定向广告的机遇：这项服务的营收尽管仍只有总额的八分之一，但在去年第四季度猛增75%。

Tencent is also trying to get users to pay for content. But in a country where content has often been free, this will not be easy. The enthusiasts behind the recent share price jump are betting that the shift to paid content is a “when” rather than an “if”.

腾讯还在试图让用户为内容付费。但在一个内容往往免费的国家，这不会容易。推动腾讯近期股价飙涨的投资者押注的是，转向付费内容是“何时”而不是“如果”的问题。