特朗普能被政治精英驯服吗
Remember when Donald Trump said, I alone can fix it? It turns out he will need help.
还记得唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)曾说过我一个人就能搞定吗？事实证明，他也需要帮助。
Here is the good news.
现在有了好消息。
Mr Trump’s advisers are distancing the president-elect from some of his most outlandish promises — making Mexico pay for the border wall, for example.
特朗普的顾问们正在让这位候任总统远离他最荒诞的一些承诺——例如，让墨西哥为修建边境隔离墙负担费用。
The reason: Mr Trump’s team is already dominated by the special interests whose same grip he promised to end.
原因是特朗普的团队已经被特殊利益集团把持，而后者对政治的主宰正是他承诺要终结的。
Having vowed a hostile takeover, the populist outsider is surrounding himself with insiders.
这位曾发誓进行敌意接管的、信奉民粹主义的局外人周围已全是局内人。
Washington is rolling out the red carpet for Mr Trump.
华盛顿正在为特朗普展开红地毯。
There is not a pitchfork in sight.
没人举着干草叉等他。
There are two dangers facing any populist who manages to get elected.
任何成功当选的民粹主义者都面临两大风险。
The first is the impossibility of carrying out most of their promises.
首先，他们的大多数竞选承诺都不可能兑现。
Mr Trump is a populist on stilts.
特朗普是一个言行夸张的民粹主义者。
He vowed to make America great again, drain the swamp of corruption, and resurrect the forgotten blue-collar American.
他誓言要让美国再次变得伟大，根除腐败，让被遗忘的蓝领美国工人重新崛起。
He cannot satisfy such expectations.
他无法满足人们的这些期待。
The second is that populist outsiders lack governing experience.
第二，信奉民粹主义的局外者缺乏执政经验。
They must therefore rely on those who do — people who can write laws, draw up regulations, issue executive orders and so on.
因此，他们必须依赖有执政经验的人士——能够起草法律、制定法规、发布行政命令等等的人。
These are the types who prefer things the way they are.
这些人都更倾向于循规蹈矩。
Less than a week after his stunning victory, Mr Trump has already acknowledged both realities.
取得令人震惊的胜利不到一周，特朗普就已承认了这两大现实。
Beware a populist mugged by reality.
要当心一个被现实碾压的民粹主义者。
When the public realises their champion lacks magical powers, they suffer buyer’s remorse.
当公众意识到自己拥护的得胜者没有魔力时，他们便会陷入买家懊悔(buyer’s remorse)之中。
At this point he must find methods of rekindling their support.
到那时，他必须找到能重新燃起他们的支持的方法。
In Mr Trump’s case, this would be a very worrisome prospect.
对特朗普而言，前景将非常令人担忧。
For the time being, however, we are on phase one of the populist manual.
然而，目前我们还处于民粹主义的第一阶段。
Mr Trump’s transition team will be run by Mike Pence, the vice-president-elect, and one of Washington’s most experienced operators.
特朗普的交接团队将由当选副总统迈克.彭斯(Mike Pence)带领，后者是华盛顿最有经验的老司机之一。
Mr Pence is already being seen as a powerful — even prime ministerial — deputy in the mould of Dick Cheney in George W Bush’s first term.
彭斯早已被视为一位实权、甚至总理式的副总统，类似迪克.切尼(Dick Cheney)在乔治.W.布什(George W Bush)第一任期的角色。
He will oversee the roughly 4,000 jobs to be filled.
他将负责填补约4000个岗位。
Some of these appointees, such as Rudy Giuliani, Ben Carson and possibly Sarah Palin, fit the Trumpian mindset.
其中一些被任命者，如鲁迪.朱利安尼(Rudy Giuliani)、本.卡森(Ben Carson)、或许还有萨拉.佩林(Sarah Palin)，符合特朗普式的思维。
Most, however, will be experienced Washington hands.
然而，大多数被任命者都将是华盛顿经验丰富的老手。
The seeds of Mr Trump’s backlash are already being sown.
特朗普遭遇反弹的种子早已播下。
As a small government conservative, Mr Pence’s worldview sits uneasily with Mr Trump’s populist nationalism — as is true of most of the Republican Party in Congress.
作为一个小政府保守主义者，彭斯的世界观与特朗普的民粹民族主义格格不入——国会中大多数共和党人士也是如此。
But their fiscal visions overlap.
但是他们在财政方面的观点有相同之处。
Mr Trump wants to sharply reduce income and corporate taxes.
特朗普希望大幅削减所得税和企业税。
He also wants to abolish the inheritance tax, which only the wealthiest Americans pay.
他还想废除只有最富有的美国人才缴纳的遗产税。
These are the likeliest pieces of his agenda to go through.
这些是他议程上最有可能推进的部分。
They will only deepen the income inequality that helped sweep Mr Trump to power.
但这样做只会加剧收入不均，而正是这种不均帮助特朗普登上了权力宝座。
So would repeal of Obamacare, which has brought 20m Americans into the insurance net — another goal on which Republicans and Mr Trump agree.
还有废除已将2000万美国人纳入了保险网络的奥巴马医改(Obamacare)——这是共和党和特朗普的另一个一致目标。
It is too soon to know how each of these bills will be framed.
要知道这些法案将如何一一出台还为时尚早。
But they will not do much for the forgotten American.
但是它们不会为被遗忘的美国人带来多少好处。
Mr Trump’s tax cuts may stimulate growth.
特朗普的减税计划或许能刺激经济增长。
But they would greatly enrich the wealthiest Americans without providing much relief to others.
但这样做将大大增加最富有的美国人的财富，却无法为其他人提供多少救助。
Billionaires, such as Mr Trump, would be the biggest winners.
特朗普之类的亿万富翁将成为最大的赢家。
Then there are Mr Trump’s amorphous business interests.
还有特朗普五花八门的商业利益。
Here we are in uncharted territory.
这是我们未知的领域。
Mr Trump will put control of his empire under a blind trust that will be run by three of his children, Ivanka, Eric and Donald Junior.
特朗普将把自己帝国的控制权置于一项保密信托(blind trust)之下，该信托将由他的三个子女——伊万卡(Ivanka)、埃里克(Eric)和小唐纳德(Donald Jr)——负责。
There is patently nothing blind about this.
这里显然不存在任何保密。
All three have also taken leading positions on Mr Pence’s team that is busy staffing their father’s administration — the same one that will take regulatory, tax and enforcement decisions that will affect Trump Inc’s bottom line.
三人也都在彭斯忙于为他们父亲的政府招兵买马的团队中担任领导职务，而特朗普政府作出的监管、税收和执法决策也将影响特朗普公司(Trump Inc)的最终盈亏。
Such conflicts of interest will not go unnoticed Mr Mr Trump’s opponents.
这样的利益冲突不会不被特朗普的对手注意到。
He already faces 75 pending civil law suits, with the first courtroom drama opening in two weeks.
他已面临75项待决的民事诉讼案，第一场庭审大戏将于两周后开幕。
The spectre of a rapid public souring on Mr Trump will put a question mark over everything he does.
迅速失去民心这一挥之不去的前景将给特朗普做的一切都打上问号。
How quickly the backlash comes may depend on whether he was serious in promising a big infrastructure bill.
反弹何时出现可能取决于他是否认真兑现大型基础设施法案。
If well crafted, it could boost middle America.
如果起草得当的话，该法案可能提振美国中产阶级。
Most Republicans have strongly opposed similar proposals in the past.
大多数共和党人过去都曾强烈反对类似的提议。
It also depends on whether Mr Trump keeps his promise to preserve entitlements, such as Medicare and Social Security, which most Republicans want to cut.
何时出现反弹还取决于特朗普能否信守承诺，维持一些基本福利，如多数共和党人希望削减的联邦医疗保险计划(Medicare)和社会保障计划(Social Security)。
Much of Mr Trump’s base relies on government assistance to make ends meet.
特朗普选民基础中的许多人依赖政府援助来维持生计。
Mr Pence’s mediating role with Capitol Hill will be critical.
彭斯与国会沟通的角色将至关重要。
Will Mr Trump submit to the orthodox conservative agenda? Or will he try to bend Washington to his will?
特朗普会屈服于正统保守的议程吗？或者，他会尝试让华盛顿屈从自己的意志吗？
The answer is some of both.
答案是两者都有。
Congress will almost certainly embrace a big tax cut.
国会几乎肯定会支持大幅减税计划。
Passing spending bills will be far harder.
但通过开支法案将困难得多。
Mr Trump is obsessed with his poll numbers.
特朗普痴迷于自己的支持率。
When they fall, he will begin to strain on the leash.
当支持率下降时，他将开始在压力下奋力一搏。
His Trumpian inner circle will be ready with another agenda.
特朗普的核心圈将为另一项议程做好准备。
On Saturday, Marine Le Pen, the far right French presidential hopeful, accepted an invitation from Stephen Bannon, head of Mr Trump’s campaign, to work together.
上周六，有望赢得法国总统大选的极右翼人士马琳.勒庞(Marine Le Pen)接受了特朗普竞选活动负责人斯蒂芬.班农(Stephen Bannon)进行合作的邀请。
Mr Bannon, who is tipped as Mr Trump’s White House chief of staff, is a radically different figure to Mr Pence.
被认为将出任特朗普白宫幕僚长的班农是一个与彭斯截然不同的人物。
It was Mr Bannon who framed Mr Trump’s hardline (Le Pen-iste?) election campaign.
正是班农为特朗普制定了奉行强硬路线（勒庞式？）的竞选策略。
The US and the world should dig in for an unending struggle between the tamed Mr Trump and his dangerous alter ego.
美国和世界应对被驯服的特朗普与其危险的另一面之间无休止的斗争严阵以待。
Mr Trump, alone, cannot fix it.
特朗普一个人无法搞定。
