特朗普与普京可能相互毁灭

If Vladimir Putin did help to put Donald Trump in the White House, it would be the ultimate intelligence coup. Yet, it might also prove to be the ultimate own goal. An operation designed to ease the pressure on Mr Putin’s government by installing a friendly face in the White House has instead led to a tightening of sanctions on Russia, and a dangerous increase in the domestic political pressure on the Russian president.

如果真是弗拉基米尔?普京(Vladimir Putin)帮助把唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)送入了白宫，那真是一场终极的情报胜利。然而，这或许也将成为一场终极“乌龙”。一项旨在通过让一位友好面孔入主白宫来减轻普京政府所受压力的行动，反而导致对俄罗斯的制裁收紧，导致普京面临的国内政治压力加大至危险地步。

As for Mr Trump, his campaign’s alleged collusion with Russia may have aided his electoral victory at the risk of destroying his presidency. It would be a strange irony if the intimacy of the Putin and Trump camps ultimately ended both presidents’ political careers.

对特朗普而言，其竞选活动涉嫌与俄罗斯勾结，可能帮助了他胜选，但带来了可能致其倒台的风险。如果普京阵营与特朗普阵营的密切关系最终导致了两位总统政治生涯的终结，那将是一种奇特的讽刺。

Of course, the Russian government and Mr Trump’s diehard defenders still deny that any such collusion took place. But the US intelligence services are certain that Russia was behind the hacking of Democratic party emails.

当然，俄罗斯政府和特朗普的死硬维护者们仍拒不承认发生过此类勾结行为。但美国情报机构确信，俄罗斯正是民主党电子邮件遭黑客入侵的幕后黑手。

It seems likely that the hack influenced the course of a tight election. I was in Philadelphia on the eve of the Democratic convention in July 2016 when the first leaked emails were released. The revelation that Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the co-chair of the Democratic National Committee, had been privately disparaging the Bernie Sanders campaign forced her resignation, and ensured that the convention got off to a chaotic start.

那场黑客入侵看起来很有可能影响了那场竞争异常激烈的选举的进程。2016年7月民主党全国代表大会召开前夕，我正在费城，当时首批遭泄露的电邮被公布。民主党全国委员会(Democratic National Committee)主席黛比?沃瑟曼?舒尔茨(Debbie Wasserman Schultz)曾私下对伯尼?桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)的竞选表示轻蔑，这一情况的曝光使她被迫辞职，并致使这次大会一开始就陷入了混乱。

Mr Sanders’ supporters were convinced that their man had been robbed. And Sanders voters who switched to the Republicans, were crucial to Mr Trump’s victories in the vital states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. We now also know that Russian operators used Facebook and Twitter to spread anti-Clinton messages.

桑德斯的支持者深信这个他们看好的人选遭到了暗算。转投共和党阵营的那些桑德斯支持者，对于特朗普在宾夕法尼亚、密歇根和威斯康星这几个关键州的胜利至关重要。我们现在还知道的是，俄罗斯操作人员曾利用Facebook和Twitter来散播对希拉里不利的信息。

Throughout the campaign, Mr Trump was consistently sympathetic to the Kremlin. Whether he was motivated by ideology, investment or some embarrassing secret has yet to emerge.

在整个竞选过程中，特朗普一直对克里姆林宫表示同情。他这样做是受到意识形态、还是投资或者一些难堪的秘密的驱使，目前还不得而知。

But the Russian connection set off the chain of events that may ultimately unravel his presidency. Alarmed by the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s probe into his Russian contacts, Mr Trump sacked James Comey, the head of the FBI.

但“通俄门”引发了一系列事件，这些事件最终或将令特朗普倒台。惊慌于联邦调查局(FBI)对其通俄问题的调查，特朗普炒掉了FBI时任局长詹姆斯?科米(James Comey)。

The backlash against the Comey sacking led to the appointment of Robert Mueller, a former head of the Bureau, as a special prosecutor to look into the Trump-Russia connection. And the remorseless progress of the Mueller inquiry is likely to spark indictments and resignations. That, in turn, could lead to the impeachment of Mr Trump — and the destruction of his presidency.

炒掉科米引发强烈反弹，结果是，FBI前局长罗伯特?米勒(Robert Mueller)被任命为调查特朗普与俄罗斯关系的特别检察官。而米勒调查的无情推进，很可能引发起诉和辞职。这反过来可能导致特朗普被弹劾——其总统生涯毁于一旦。

As for Mr Putin, the moment it became clear that his gamble might backfire was when Mr Trump was forced to sack General Michael Flynn, his first national security adviser, for not disclosing contacts with the Russian government. From that point on, it became politically impossible for Mr Trump to help Russia by easing sanctions. On the contrary, the backlash against Russian interference in the US election has led to the intensification of sanctions, with a distrustful Congress ensuring that Mr Trump cannot lift these measures unilaterally.

从特朗普被迫解雇其首任国家安全顾问迈克尔?弗林(Michael Flynn)将军（原因是后者未披露与俄罗斯政府的接触）那一刻起，普京的豪赌可能搬起石头砸自己的脚，就变成很清楚的事了。自那时起，特朗普通过放松制裁来帮助俄罗斯，从政治角度而言已经绝无可能了。相反，俄罗斯干预美国大选引发的反弹导致了对俄制裁的加剧，同时，持怀疑态度的国会确保特朗普单凭自己无法解除这些制裁措施。

Indeed, for the Republican Congress getting tough on Russia seems to have become a surrogate for getting tough on Mr Trump. The sanctions added over the summer were aimed specifically at the Russian mining and oil industries, In response, Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian prime minister, accused the US of “a declaration of full-fledged economic warfare on Russia”.

实际上，对共和党控制的国会而言，对俄罗斯采取强硬立场似乎成了对特朗普强硬的替代。今夏新增的对俄制裁措施特地针对俄罗斯采矿业和石油工业。作为回应，俄罗斯总理德米特里?梅德韦杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)指责美国“对俄罗斯发起全面经济战”。

So far from improving under Mr Trump, US-Russian relations are now as bitter as at any time since the height of the cold war. Realising that the Trump administration will not be able to lift sanctions, the Kremlin resorted to a mass expulsion of US diplomats in response to an earlier expulsion of Russians by the Obama administration. The prospect that the US might supply arms to Ukraine has become much more real. And Russia is about to embark on some major military exercises in eastern Europe, which will heighten US fears.

在特朗普的领导下，美俄关系非但没有改善，而今已处于自冷战高峰期以来的最差时期。意识到特朗普政府无力解除制裁，克里姆林宫便诉诸大规模驱逐美国外交官的作法，作为对奥巴马(Obama)政府早些时候驱逐俄外交官的回应。美国向乌克兰提供武器的可能性已变得愈加真实。而俄罗斯即将开始在东欧进行一些重大军事演习，这将加剧美国的担忧。

The irony for Mr Putin is that, if he had simply let events take their course, sanctions on Russia could have been eased in the natural run of events — even with Hillary Clinton in the White House. Mrs Clinton had already tried one “reset” with Russia as secretary of state, and might have been prepared to try another. Many in Europe were also tiring of sanctions on Russia.

对普京而言，具有讽刺意味的是，如果他不干预美国大选，那么对俄罗斯的制裁将会自然而然得到放松——即便希拉里?克林顿(Hillary Clinton)入主白宫。希拉里曾在担任国务卿期间尝试过“重启”美俄关系，她或许已准备好再尝试一次。在欧洲，许多人也已经厌倦了对俄罗斯的制裁。

When the Mueller inquiry reports, there is likely to be a renewed spike in American outrage towards Russia. The most obvious threat is posed to Mr Trump. But the Mueller inquiry also poses an indirect threat to Mr Putin. He will contest a presidential election in March and faces a re-energised opposition, led by the popular and daring Alexei Navalny, and a deteriorating economy that has hit Russian consumers hard. Even though very few people expect Mr Putin to lose the election, the pro-Putin euphoria of a couple of years ago is clearly fading. Articles about the post-Putin era have begun to appear in the Russian media.

米勒的调查报告出炉的时候，美国人对俄罗斯的愤怒可能会再次高涨。受到最明显威胁的将是特朗普。但米勒调查也会对普京构成了间接威胁。明年3月，普京将角逐总统大选，他面对的将是一个由受欢迎且大胆的阿列克谢?纳瓦尔尼(Alexei Navalny)领导的、重现活力的反对党，以及对俄罗斯消费者造成沉重打击的不断恶化的经济。尽管很少有人预期普京会在大选中落败，但几年前的那种对普京的疯狂拥戴显然正在消退。关于后普京时代的文章已经开始出现在俄罗斯媒体上。

Above all, the most powerful economic interests in Russia now know that there is no longer any light at the end of the sanctions tunnel. In fact, things are likely to get worse. Something radical will have to change to get sanctions lifted. And that change might be the removal of Mr Putin from the Kremlin. Indeed, it is only when Mr Trump and Mr Putin both go that it may truly be possible to reset US-Russian relations.

最重要的是，俄罗斯最强大的经济利益集团如今已经明白，再也没有解除制裁的希望。事实上，形势可能变得更糟。俄罗斯必须有一些彻底的改变，才能让制裁得到解除。而这一改变可能是普京从克里姆林宫下台。实际上，只有当特朗普和普京都下台时，美俄关系才真正有可能重启。