警惕与普京打交道的危险

For Donald Trump, the attractions of making a pact with his future counterpart Vladimir Putin are many and obvious.

对唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)来说，在就职后与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔.普京(Vladimir Putin)达成某种协议的吸引力又多又明显。

Russia’s challenge to American global dominance is the most acute foreign policy issue on the US agenda.

俄罗斯对美国全球主导地位的挑战是美国外交政策议程上最尖锐的议题。

Defusing tension with a nuclear-armed rival is a laudable goal.

化解与一个拥有核武器的对手的紧张关系是一个值得称赞的目标。

Politically, striking a deal would go a long way towards turning Mr Trump from a tycoon, entertainer and political outsider into a statesman.

从政治上说，与克里姆林宫达成协议将大大有助于特朗普从一个大亨、明星和政治局外人转变成一位政治家。

The world must hope that Mr Trump also sees the huge risks inherit in any grand bargain with Russia.

全世界一定希望特朗普还能看到与俄罗斯达成的任何大妥协必然伴随的巨大风险。

Mr Putin wants to tear down the current US-backed political order in Europe and indeed worldwide, which he sees as unfair and inimical to Russia’s interests.

普京想要搅乱欧洲（更确切地说是全世界范围内）当下由美国支撑的政治秩序，他认为这一秩序不公平，且有损俄罗斯的利益。

A softening of the international constraints that restrict his ambitions might deliver a temporary thaw in US-Russian relations.

软化限制其野心的国际制约，可能暂时让美俄关系解冻。

But it could also undermine long-term US and western interests and undercut security and stability elsewhere.

但这也将损害美国和西方的长远利益，并危及其他地区的安全与稳定。

Multilateral co-operation, in Mr Putin’s vision, would be replaced by a world carved up into the great powers’ spheres of influence.

按照普京的愿景，多边合作将被一个由大国势力范围划分的世界取代。

In such a world Moscow would have a free hand in much of the former Soviet space.

在这样一个世界，莫斯科可以在前苏联空间的很多地方为所欲为。

Mr Trump, for his part, must reject any attempt to reproduce the 1945 Yalta conference in the modern day.

从特朗普来说，他必须抵制任何再现1945年雅尔塔会议的企图。

To do so would seem to reward Russia’s annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine.

因为那将被看作对俄罗斯吞并克里米亚和入侵乌克兰东部的奖励，

That could set a dangerous precedent, emboldening powerful nations elsewhere.

进而开创一个危险的先例，给其他地区的强国壮胆。

It would undermine, too, the principle established since the fall of the Berlin Wall, and enshrined in the 1990 Paris Charter, that European countries are free to choose their policies and alliances.

这还将破坏自柏林墙倒塌以来确立的、载入1990年《巴黎宪章》(Paris Charter)的原则：欧洲国家可以自由选择各自的政策和联盟。

Ukraine, in particular, must not be sold out.

尤其是，绝对不能出卖乌克兰。

This could prompt the collapse of its pro-western government.

那样做可能导致该国的亲西方政府垮台。

Other nations in the Russian sphere might similarly refuse to submit.

处于俄罗斯势力范围之内的其他国家或许同样会拒绝对其屈服。

In dealings with Mr Putin, therefore, the incoming US president should follow several principles.

因此，在与普京打交道时，即将上任的美国总统应当坚持几项原则。

First, his administration should make its commitment to Nato, a pillar of European and global security since its 1949 foundation, absolute and unequivocal.

首先，特朗普政府应该对北约(NATO)作出无条件且毫不含糊的承诺；该组织自1949年成立以来一直是欧洲乃至全球安全的支柱。

The alliance should accelerate its existing efforts to ensure all member states meet minimum defence spending targets.

北约应加快现有努力，确保所有成员国达到最低国防支出目标。

But the US commitment to defend even the newest and smallest Nato members must remain unconditional.

但即使对那些最新加入、面积最小的北约成员国，美国也必须承诺无条件为它们提供防卫。

Second, Mr Trump should not, as he hinted during his campaign, drop sanctions on Russia — undermining solidarity with Europe and Japan — without progress on the issues over which they were imposed.

第二，在导致对俄罗斯制裁的问题未取得进展的情况下，特朗普不应像他在竞选期间暗示的那样，取消这些制裁，否则将破坏美国与欧洲和日本的团结。

He should not recognise Russia’s claim to Crimea, whose occupation was a blatant breach of international law.

他不应承认俄罗斯对克里米亚的主权主张，俄罗斯占领克里米亚是悍然违反国际法的行为。

Just as when the west refused to recognise the Soviet occupation of the Baltic states, respecting these bright lines does not rule out pursuing a new form of detente in other areas.

就像当年西方拒绝承认苏联侵占波罗的海诸国那样，尊重这些明线并不排除在其他领域寻求一种新形式的缓和。

Mr Trump should not immediately put all issues on the table, but seek to make gradual progress on specific topics, helped by confidence-building measures.

特朗普不应把所有问题都直接摆上桌面，而应在一些建立信任的措施的帮助下，寻求在具体问题上循序渐进。

Syria is one area where renewed US-Russian co-operation is a prerequisite to end the conflict, although the resumption of raids on Aleppo demonstrate Russian intractability.

在叙利亚，美俄重启合作是结束冲突的先决条件——尽管对阿勒颇恢复空袭展示出俄罗斯的不讲道理。

In dealing with Moscow, Mr Trump should place just as much importance on the rights and interests of Russia’s neighbours as he does on those of Russia.

在与莫斯科打交道时，特朗普应该像重视俄罗斯的权利和利益那样，重视俄邻国的权利和利益。

With tension at its highest level since the 1980s, the prize of improved relations with Russia is significant.

在美俄关系处于自上世纪80年代以来最紧张时刻之际，改善与俄罗斯关系的好处是显著的。

It cannot be achieved by caving in to Moscow’s terms, however.

但这不能通过屈从于莫斯科开出的条件来实现。

Whatever the risks today, a bad deal with Mr Putin would be worse than none at all.

无论当今的风险有多大，与普京达成糟糕的协议还不如根本没有协议。