为什么中国可能会在南中国海问题上与美国摊牌

LAST JULY AN international tribunal made a landmark ruling against China over their historical claim to territory in the South China Sea. The world’s most populous nation claims sovereignty over the majority of the region east of Vietnam north of Malaysia and west of the Philippines. Within this territory is the island of Taiwan as well as areas of sea claimed by China’s closest neighbours.

去年七月一个国际法庭做了个里程碑式的裁决，反对中国在南中国海对其领土的历史主张。世界上人口最多的国家对越南东边、马来西亚北边及菲律宾西边的大部分地区声称拥有主权。这片地区里包括台湾岛，以及同样被中国的近邻们声称拥有主权的海域。

No fan of trump but this is a scaremongering piece to suggest that Trump will cause a conflict over the South China Sea territory. The US under Obama has already moved massive naval assets into this sphere of the globe and he admonished Beijing a number of times in regards to this issue. In August under the Obama regime three b1 bombers were sent over the area as a show of strength these planes are capable of carrying a nuclear payload. It’s a much more complicated mess then suggesting it’s limited to the US backing Taiwan or the one china question. Japan the Philippines Korea both north and south all have claims on the territory which is currently in international waters. There have already been many clashes with Chinease naval forces in the area much more serious than the one with the Indian naval vessel over the disputed territory. Trump may be a nut but this has been brewing for many years and if you are going to do a piece on this powder keg do a balanced and fair one covering all the nations and theirclaims rather than a puff piece to scare people about trump you also forgot to mention the landing strips that have been built on the reefs or the the Sam missiles the Chinease have moved there already or the fact they seized the us naval drone in December

称不上特朗普的粉丝但这确属一篇危言耸听的言论，意味着特朗普将引发在中国南海领土上的冲突。奥巴马时期美国已经大规模将海军力量布置进入这个区域，并就此问题多次告诫北京。在8月，奥巴马政府将三架B1轰炸机派到此区域，以强力显示这些飞机携带核弹头的能力。这引发了更复杂的混乱，并暗示着美国将有限的支持台湾或者改变一个中国的原则。日本、菲律宾、韩国、朝鲜都宣称目前在国际水域，在该地区已经发生许多与中国海军的冲突，比与印度海军舰艇在有争议的领土发生的纠纷还要严重。特朗普很可能面临难以解决的问题，但这已酝酿多年。假如你想在这个火药桶上做一点平衡或者做一个让所有的国家以及他们言论因为认可的公正的观点，而不仅是做一些唬人的吹吹捧文章，更别提建立在珊瑚礁上的机场跑道和中国已经搬到那里的“萨姆”导弹以及他们在12月捕获的美国海军无人探测设备。

It came to war this is a war that the U.S. could not win. It would cost them an absolute fortune given the logistics and their production capabilities are nowhere near what China’s are now. China is a juggernaut of heavy industry.

如果开战，这是一场美国无法获胜的战争。考虑到后勤和生产能力根本不及中国，这势必让他们付出巨大的代价。在重工业方面中国是龙头老大。

@Phil Magee: Hi Phil The US armed forces vastly outnumber both China and Russia when it comes to arms several times over. The US has a massive army. No comparison. Under Obama the US had a weak commander but not now. Trump will not be pushed around by Chinese threats

@Phil Magee: 嗨，Phil 美军的武力装备比中国和俄罗斯都多出很多，都可以装备他们好几回了。美国有一支庞大的军队。无人能比。在奥巴马时期美国有一个懦弱的司令官，但是现在不一样了，川普不会被中国的威胁所左右的。

@Burke John: I’m not sure you understand the scale here. Sure Americas military might is greater but they would not be able to pit all their might against China. Remember when China shot down the spy plane? who went to war because his daddy went to war demanded the plane back he got it back or at least the shell of it 6 weeks later. China does not fear America they may not be as powerful but are powerful enough to face them down.

@Burke John：我不知道你怎么理解这里说的规模。是的美国的军事力量可能更强大，但他们不能动用所有的力量对付中国。记得中国击落了间谍飞机那事吗？ 小布什要求把飞机要回来（小布什开战是因为他爹开战），他6周后拿回了它，或至少拿回了它的壳。中国不怕美国，他们可能没有那么强大，但有足够的力量面对对手。