美国有一个机会来击退中国的南海战略

Ahead of the looming International Tribunal ruling on the Philippine-initiated arbitration case against China’s contested maritime sovereignty claims in the South China Sea (SCS) Chinese diplomats and government officials are conducting an aggressive PR campaign throughout the region and across the globe to influence world opinion and present China and its legal and political positions as correct through the publication of various comments by sympathetic world leaders legal scholars and international relations experts.

在即将到来的国际法庭对由菲律宾发起的针对中国在南海有争议的海上主权索赔案的裁决做出之前，中国外交官和政府官员正在整个地区和全球各地进行一项积极的公关活动：通过对中国有好感的世界领导人、法律学者和国际关系专家发表各种评论，以影响世界舆论，并展示中国以及它的法律与政治立场是正确的。

They want to highlight the positive aspects of Beijing’s maritime security comportment and accentuate the benevolent features of its growing presence in the SCS while peddling the same familiar public-diplomacy themes—the United States as the destabilizing aggressor; China as the virtuous but hapless victim; and the source of all regional trouble as Washington’s arm-twisting of its allies and partners in Manila Hanoi and Kuala Lumpur—and steadily messaging that it does not recognize the jurisdiction and authority of the International Tribunal of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) at the Hague to rule in this case.

他们想突出北京的海上安全行为的积极方面，强调其在南海日益频繁现身时友善的特点，并且兜售同样为世人熟悉的公共外交的主题----美国是造成不稳定的侵略者；中国是善良而不幸的受害者；以及造成地区所有麻烦的根源：华盛顿在马尼拉、河内和吉隆坡强迫其盟友和伙伴服从自己----并向外界持续释放这样的信息：中国不会承认设于海牙的常设仲裁法院下的国际法庭审理本案的管辖权和权威性。

All in all this PR shift may be part of a larger adjustment by Beijing of its assertive actions in the SCS in response to the mounting unfavorable geopolitical conditions and regional trends.

概言之，这一公关行为可能是北京在南海转向强硬行为的更大调整的一部分，以应对越来越多的不利的地缘政治条件和区域趋势。

If so what does the PR shift reveal about Beijing’s maritime strategy and more importantly what can Washington do to shape and influence that evolving strategy?

如果是这样的话，公关重点的转移揭示了北京会采取什么样的的海洋战略，更重要的是，华盛顿能采取什么行动来左右和影响不断调整的战略？