特朗普对美国民主的伤害如何估量

Whoever said the personal is political did not have Donald Trump in mind. In the last week alone, the US president berated a chain store for dropping his daughter’s branded product line; the White House counsellor, Kellyanne Conway, then urged television viewers to go out and buy Ivanka Trump’s products. Meanwhile the first lady, Melania Trump, is suing a newspaper on the grounds its defamation ruined a “once in lifetime” chance for her to make money. No US president in history has triggered anything close to this many conflicts of interest — and this is just his family. Trump Inc is turning into America’s newest fourth estate.

那些说出“个人的即政治的”的人，头脑里一定没有想到唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)。仅在过去一周里，这位美国总统就曾因为一家连锁店将其女儿品牌的产品线下架而对其大加鞭笞。接着，白宫顾问凯莉安妮?康韦(Kellyanne Conway)敦促电视观众上街去买伊万卡?特朗普(Ivanka Trump)的产品。与此同时，第一夫人梅拉尼娅?特朗普(Melania Trump)正在起诉一家报纸，理由是该报的诽谤毁了她“一生只有一次”的赚钱机会。引发这么多利益冲突，历史上任何一位美国总统都望尘莫及——这还只是他家人的情况。目前，“特朗普公司”(Trump Inc)正在变成美国最新的“第四阶级”(the fourth estate)。

Mr Trump’s ability to benefit personally from office is immense. Every time he tweets against a company, its stock briefly nosedives. A minute’s notice would enable a savvy operator to monetise the damage by shorting the stock. Federal enforcement of insider trading laws is handled by the Securities and Exchange Commission, whose head Mr Trump hopes will be Wall Street lawyer Jay Clayton. On a strict reading, Mr Trump is already in breach of the US constitution’s emoluments clause, which bans officer-holders from accepting gifts from foreign governments. Every time an embassy rents the Trump International Hotel’s ballroom the money will end up in the president’s pocket. Conflicts are assessed by the General Services Administration whose head Mr Trump will appoint.

特朗普从其职务中获取个人好处的能力十分巨大。每次他在Twitter网站上发消息批评一家公司，该公司的股票都会短暂暴跌。假如能提前一分钟得到消息，聪明的操盘手就能通过做空该股票从下跌中获利。内幕交易法律的联邦执法由美国证券交易委员会(SEC)负责，而特朗普希望由华尔街律师杰伊?克莱顿(Jay Clayton)执掌该委员会。严格说来，特朗普已经违反了美国宪法的“报酬条款”(Emoluments Clause)，该条款禁止在政府任职的人士接受外国政府的馈赠。每次有大使馆租用特朗普国际酒店(Trump International Hotel)的宴会厅，租金最终都会流进这位总统的腰包。这些利益冲突由美国总务管理局(General Services Administration)评估，该机构的负责人将由特朗普任命。

Yet the US courts are unlikely to go near anti-Trump lawsuits. A plaintiff must show they have suffered damage. It is hard to see how anyone could prove they were personally harmed by the Trump Hotel’s high occupancy rates, or his booming golf courses. Many of Mr Trump’s potential conflicts are hidden as he has refused to release his tax returns, which means he could pocket any such benefits with impunity. Short of Mr Trump taking a direct foreign bribe, do not expect the judiciary to act as a check on him. Expect even less of Congress. Mr Trump’s Republican colleagues would be the last people to embark on fishing expeditions into his business interests, still less to impeach him. The field is wide open. Those hoping he will be brought down by the system are guilty of wishful thinking.

然而，美国法院不太可能去碰反特朗普的案子。原告必须证明他们蒙受了损失。很难想象有人能证明，特朗普酒店的高入住率、或者他火爆的高尔夫球场损害了他们个人。特朗普许多潜在的利益冲突都是隐性的，原因是他拒绝公开报税单——意味着他可以将所有此类好处不受惩罚地纳入囊中。由于特朗普没有直接收受外国贿赂，不要指望司法机构会调查他。至于国会就更不要指望了。特朗普的共和党同僚，是最不愿意着手调查其商业利益的人群，更不要说弹劾他了。所有的障碍都扫清了。那些希望特朗普被体制拉下马的人们纯属痴心妄想。

But the damage to American democracy — and its global standing — is incalculable. Those wanting to influence America’s 45th president know that the best route is via his family — particularly Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner. China has already invested diplomatic capital wooing the first daughter and her husband, who is seen as the president’s most trusted adviser. Ivanka’s attendance at the Chinese embassy’s Chinese new year celebrations may have played a role in Mr Trump’s endorsement of Beijing’s “One China” policy a few days later.

然而，美国民主（及其全球地位）受到的伤害却是无法计算的。想要影响这位美国第45任总统的人们知道，最好的途径是通过他的家人——尤其是伊万卡?特朗普和贾里德?库什纳(Jared Kushner)。中国已经通过讨好第一女儿和她的丈夫（他被视为这位总统最信任的顾问），投下了外交资本。伊万卡出席中国大使馆的春节庆祝活动，也许对几天后特朗普支持北京方面“一个中国”(One China)政策发挥了作用。

The fact that she sat in on her father’s first meeting with Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, also spoke volumes. Ms Trump’s company is planning to launch a Japanese accessory line in a joint venture with a Japanese state-owned bank. Though Ms Trump has given up control of her company, she has not divested her stake. She is only following her father’s example. The president has retained ownership of the Trump Organization but handed over its running to his two sons, Eric and Donald junior. It is the opposite of a blind trust.

伊万卡列席了她父亲与日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)的首次会谈，这一点也意味深长。伊万卡的公司计划与一家日本国有银行联手开办合资公司，推出一个日本饰品系列。尽管伊万卡放弃了她公司的控制权，但她没有撤股。她只是在效仿她父亲的做法。特朗普保留了特朗普集团(Trump Organization)的所有权，但将其运营交给了他的两个儿子埃里克(Eric)和小唐纳德。这是“保密信托”(blind trust)的反面。

Plenty of US presidents entertain foreign leaders at their retreats — George Bush senior hosted at Kennebunkport in Maine and Bush junior at his Texan ranch in Crawford. But these were private homes. This weekend, Mr Trump hosted Mr Abe at his Mar-A-Lago club on Palm Beach. Mr Trump’s club doubled the $100,000 nomination fee for what is known as the “winter White House” shortly after he was inaugurated. Likewise, Washington’s increasingly pricey Trump International Hotel is turning into the White House’s informal guest house. Everyone knows Mr Trump rewards people who treat him well. Shortly after Mr Trump was elected, Trump Hotels announced plans to quintuple its outlets in America.

很多美国总统在他们的度假别墅款待外国领导人，老布什在缅因州的肯尼邦克港，小布什在他位于德克萨斯州的克劳福德农场。但这些是私产。上周末，特朗普是在他位于棕榈滩的马阿拉歌(Mar-a-Lago)俱乐部招待安倍晋三的。特朗普的俱乐部被称为“冬季白宫”，在他就任后不久，这所俱乐部的会费从10万美元翻了一番。同样的，华盛顿价格日益高昂的特朗普国际酒店将变成白宫的非正式客房。所有人都知道，特朗普会奖励那些对他好的人。就在特朗普当选后不久，特朗普国际酒店宣布，计划将其在美国的酒店数量增加4倍。

But what price will America pay? Even without overt lawbreaking, the reputational damage is bad enough. Mr Trump’s insistence that conflict of interest laws do not apply to him robs America of standing to accuse other countries of bending the rule of law. Even where Mr Trump has the highest motives, he will fail the Caesar’s wife test. Critics of Mr Trump’s “Muslim ban” point out that it omits countries such as Saudi Arabia, in which Trump Inc. has business interests. How much will Trump Inc. benefit from the White House’s big infrastructure plan? What boost will Manhattan property magnates receive from Mr Trump’s tax cuts? How many product lines will Ivanka Trump’s business roll out in China? It will be impossible to quell suspicions of self-dealing.

但美国将付出何种代价？即便没有公开的违法行为，特朗普给美国造成的声誉损害已经非常严重了。特朗普坚称，利益冲突法不适用于他，这剥夺了美国指责其他国家违反法治的权利。即便在特朗普最积极的领域，他也通过不了伟大人物应洁身自好的测试。批评特朗普的“穆斯林禁令”的人指出，它漏掉了沙特阿拉伯等国，而特朗普的公司与沙特阿拉伯有商业往来。特朗普的公司将在多大程度上受益于白宫的大规模基础设施计划？曼哈顿的房地产巨头将从特朗普的减税政策中获得多大好处？伊万卡?特朗普的公司将在中国推出多少产品系列？要消除假公济私的猜测将是不可能的。

The corrosion of faith in US institutions was already deep. Last month, the Economist Intelligence Unit downgraded American democracy to “flawed” from “full”, putting it in the same category as Italy and India. Its chief reason was falling public trust in government. Its decision was based on what happened before Mr Trump was elected. The problem is now many times greater. Mr Trump’s terms of contract are entirely one-sided. The Trumps can only gain. America will pick up the tab.

对美国制度的信任已严重削弱。上月，经济学人智库(Economist Intelligence Unit)将美国民主指数从“完全民主”下调至“部分民主”，与意大利和印度同级。主要原因是公众对政府的信任日益滑坡。该智库的决定基于特朗普当选前的情况。如今，问题变得严重多了。特朗普的合约条款完全是倾向于一边的。特朗普方只能获利。买单的是美国。