美国总统选举启示 如何应对民主的困境
Times are tough for liberal internationalists who believe in a combination of democracy, market economy and globalisation.
对于相信民主、市场经济和全球化的自由国际主义者来说，眼下的日子不好过。
The ideology, faults and all, has proved its worth, but its defenders seem to have gone into hibernation.
这种意识形态——无论功过是非——已证明了它的价值，但它的卫士似乎已进入冬眠。
Europe and North America are still by far the most prosperous continents.
欧洲和北美仍是遥遥领先的最繁荣的两个大陆。
The combination of free trade and enterprise has lifted millions of people out of poverty over the past decades.
自由贸易与企业的组合在过去几十年让数百万人摆脱了贫困。
Yet, attacks on such a system are coming from all directions.
然而，这套体系现在遭受着各个方向的攻击。
Illiberal and protectionist European governments are commonplace.
保护主义和反自由主义的政府在欧洲已经相当常见。
Britain is leaving the EU and the Wallonian parliament wanted to block a free trade agreement with Canada.
英国将要脱离欧盟，比利时瓦隆大区的议会一度想要阻止欧盟与加拿大之间的自由贸易协定。
The US presidential election symbolises everything that can be vulgar in democratic discourse.
美国总统选举象征着民主话语中一切粗俗的东西。
Civility and substance have given way to insult and personal attack.
文明辩论和实质议题已让位于侮辱和人身攻击。
When the US election becomes PG-rated, we know democracy is in trouble.
当美国大选变成PG辅导级时，我们知道民主有麻烦了。
Populists and nationalists are gaining ground.
民粹主义者和民族主义者正在抬头。
The asylum crisis in Europe has led to an avalanche of racist and xenophobic movements that make the Austrian Freedom party of the late 1990s look like an international kindergarten.
欧洲难民危机引发了层出不穷的种族主义和仇外运动，使得上世纪90年代末的奥地利自由党(Freedom Party of Austria)相比之下像一所国际幼儿园。
Donald Trump’s wall against Mexico would be a sick joke if he was not for real.
唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)说要对墨西哥竖起围墙，这听上去像是个病态的玩笑——如果他不是当真的话。
The leaders of authoritarian regimes must be looking at all this with schadenfreude.
威权政府的领导人肯定在幸灾乐祸地看着这一切。
But should we lose hope and succumb to a new authoritarian, protectionist and nationalist world order? No — but resisting it will not be easy.
但是，我们应该失去希望，向一个威权的、保护主义和民族主义的世界新秩序低头吗？不，但抵制它并不容易，
Here are three reasons why.
原因有三点。
First, populist and nationalist movements can be short lived, but this depends on how you deal with them.
首先，民粹主义和民族主义运动可能是短暂的，但这取决于你如何对待它们。
During the interwar period, European leaders allowed nationalist movements to emerge.
两次世界大战期间，欧洲领导人曾放纵民族主义运动涌现，
The reaction was too little and too late.
他们的反制行动太少也太晚，
The consequences were dire.
酿成了灾难性后果。
The litmus test for the moderate centre in 2016 is how it treats the current populist movements.
对2016年的温和中间派来说，关键考验是如何应对当前的民粹主义运动。
Finland, for example, has chosen to give the rightwing True Finns responsibility in government.
芬兰已选择将一部分政府职责交由右翼的正统芬兰人党(True Finns)。
With power come difficult decisions, and as a consequence, policies of immigration, austerity and bailouts have halved the party’s popularity.
权力伴随着棘手决策，其后果是，移民、紧缩以及纾困政策导致该党人气减半。
Others, such as Sweden, have chosen to keep the Sweden Democrats outside government — and have seen their support soar since the 2014 election.
其他国家，比如瑞典，选择将瑞典民主党(Sweden Democrats)挡在政府门外，结果自2014年大选以来该党人气飙升。
There is probably no single solution to every European country’s problems, but one thing is for sure: you have to listen to and engage with the populist movements before it is too late.
欧洲各国的问题很可能没有单一的解决方案，但有一点是肯定的：你必须去倾听、去接触民粹主义运动，以免为时过晚。
Second, market economies have a tendency to bounce back.
第二，市场经济有反弹倾向。
And when they do, the pressure on democratic governance deflates.
而当市场经济果真反弹时，民主治理的压力就会减小，
There is less of a need to vent frustrations on ruling governments and seek solutions from extremes, be they from the right or the left.
人们将不再觉得有必要向现政府发泄不满，或者寄望极端势力（无论是极右还是极左）提供出路。
There are some who contest the link between economic growth and responsible democracy.
有些人质疑经济增长与负责任的民主政体之间的联系。
Many governments were toppled in the aftermath of the financial crisis that began in 2008.
始于2008年的金融危机掀翻了许多政府，
Yet others showed resilience.
但其他国家展现了韧性。
With eight years of government experience I can say that life in politics is a lot easier when the economy is growing.
凭借八年的执政经验，我敢说当经济增长时，政治生涯会容易许多。
Europe might be facing an extended period of low growth, but probably nothing as severe as we saw in the 2008 crisis.
欧洲可能面临长期的低增长，但很可能没有我们在2008年金融危机中见到的那么严重。
The question is how this growth is shared out in welfare states.
问题在于如何在福利国家体制下分享这种增长？
Will the distribution be perceived as fair or unfair by those who have been told of the virtues of global capitalism?
那些一直被告知全球资本主义优越性的人将如何看待这种分配，他们会觉得公平还是不公？
Third, technological development will accelerate globalisation.
第三，科技发展将加速全球化。
Politicians and policymakers must understand the impact of the fourth industrial revolution — artificial intelligence, robotics, the internet of things, 3D-printing and digitalisation.
政治人士和政策制定者必须对第四次工业革命——人工智能、机器人、物联网、3D打印和数字化——的影响有所认知。
It will disrupt everything from labour markets to trade relations.
这场革命将对从劳动力市场到贸易关系的一切方面造成扰乱。
The good news is that technology will make the life of authoritarian regimes more difficult (save surveillance).
好消息是科技将令威权政府的日子更加难过（除了监视）。
A smartphone in the hand of everyone around the world becomes a powerful tool against any centralisation of government.
世界各国人手一部的智能手机成为反抗政府集权的强大工具。
The bad news is that the new machine age will wipe out vast swaths of both white- and blue-collar jobs — everything from taxi and bus drivers to X-ray specialists and market analysts.
坏消息是新的机器时代将淘汰大批蓝领和白领工作——从出租车和公共汽车司机，到X光专家和市场分析师。
The challenge for legislators is how to cope with this radical shift in the labour market.
立法者的挑战是如何应对劳动市场的这种根本性转变。
Liberal internationalists should not lose faith.
自由国际主义者不应失去信心。
At the end of the day it is a question of how we adapt to change and whether we have the courage to defend freedom and democracy.
归根到底，最终问题是我们要如何适应变化，以及我们是否有勇气去捍卫自由和民主。
In the cacophony coming from social and mainstream media this will not be easy.
在社交媒体和主流媒体制造的喧嚣噪音中，想做到这点并不容易。
The desire to go with the perceived flow is tempting.
随波逐流的愿望是诱人的。
I believe human beings are rational; we are able to figure out what is best for us.
我相信人类是理性的，我们能够弄懂什么对自己最好。
If history is anything to go by, authoritarian rule, protectionism and nationalism will fail in the long run.
如果历史经验还靠得住的话，威权统治、保护主义和民族主义长期而言必将失败，
But in the short run they can do a lot of damage.
但短期内它们可能造成很大伤害。
Democracy, the market economy and globalisation are worth defending.
民主、市场经济和全球化值得捍卫。
To survive they must adapt to a world revolution happening faster than any before.
要生存下来，它们必须适应一场比以往更迅速的全球革命。
