如何抵御特朗普的民粹冲击波

This year investors have grappled with aplethora of global mysteries: Brexit, war in the Middle East, negative interestrates, energy prices, the Chinese debt bubble, Russian President Vladimir Putin’spolicy-making and drama in Brazil.

今年，投资者已经在全力应对全球的诸多不确定性：英国退欧、中东战争、负利率、能源价格、中国债务泡沫、俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)的决策以及巴西的戏剧性事件。

Now, however, we face another biguncertainty: what an election battle between Donald Trump and Hillary Clintonmight do to American asset markets.

然而，现在我们又面临一个巨大的不确定性：唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)与希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的选战会对美国资产市场带来何种影响。

Although Mrs Clinton, the presumed Democratnominee, appears to have a fairly big lead over Mr Trump in the polls, theoutcome of November’s presidential vote looks uncertain. We have all learnt in the pastyear how wrong pollsters can be.

尽管有望获得民主党候选人提名的希拉里似乎在民调中远远领先于特朗普，但今年11月总统大选的结果看起来仍是不确定的。我们在过去一年里都明白了，民调机构可能错得多么离谱。

What is even more unnerving for investorsis that, as populism gathers momentum, it is eroding many of the normalboundaries of “right” and “left”, “pro-business” and “anti-business”erning clear policy patterns amid the wild rhetoric is not easy for eitherDemocrats or Republicans.

甚至更让投资者担心的是，随着民粹主义兴起，“右翼”和“左翼”、“支持商业”和“反对商业”之间的许多正常界限变得模糊起来。无论是民主党还是共和党，在他们的一片嘈杂言论当中找出清晰的政策模式并非易事。

So what is an investor to do if they wantto Trump-proof their portfolio —or even benefit from an ugly Clinton-versus-Trump fight? In thecoming weeks, sellside banks and financial advisers will produce acres ofideas. Here are five of my own.

那么，如果投资者想让他们的投资组合抵御特朗普带来的冲击——乃至从希拉里对决特朗普的残酷选战中获利，他们该怎么做？在今后几周，卖方银行和金融顾问将会提出诸多观点，下面是我自己的5个观点。

First of all, do not buy banks; or not ifyou hope government will boost their share price. Until recently, Mrs Clintonwas perceived as being soft on Wall Street; indeed, some financiers hoped thatbank-bashing would end in 2016.

首先，不要买银行股；或者说，假如你指望政府会推升银行股股价，不要买。直至最近，人们都认为希拉里对华尔街持温和立场，实际上，一些金融家期待，银行遭受抨击的局面将在2016年结束。

But Bernie Sanders, her Democratic rival,has performed so well that Mrs Clinton will face pressure to steal his“socialist” language to appease his supporters, and may well pick an anti-WallStreet figure as her running mate, such as Sherrod Brown, an Ohio senator.

但希拉里的民主党竞争对手伯尼•桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)表现得太好了，以至于希拉里将会面临窃取其“社会主义”言论来取悦其支持者的压力，而且很可能选择一位反对华尔街的人物作竞选搭档，比如俄亥俄州参议员谢罗德•布朗(Sherrod Brown)。

Mr Trump may not be so different. ManyRepublicans would love to repeal the post-crisis financial reforms, and he hascriticised the Dodd-Frank Act. But he also seems instinctively hostile to WallStreet. As a self-appointed hero of angry main street voters, he is unlikely toembrace banks.

特朗普可能没有那么大的转变。许多共和党人将会乐于废除危机后出台的金融改革措施，而他已经抨击了《多德-弗兰克法案》(Dodd-Frank Act)。但他也似乎发自本能地对华尔街怀有敌意。作为一名自诩代表愤怒的大众选民的候选人，他不太可能支持银行。

Second, do not expect a rally in Treasurybonds; at least, not one driven by debt cuts. A couple of years ago, it waspresumed that by this point in the economic cycle policymakers would bediscussing how to cut America’s vast debt burden. But Mrs Clinton is no fiscalhawk. On the contrary, she seems to lean towards fiscal stimulus, and may tryto appease supporters of Mr Sanders this way.

第二，不要预计国债价格反弹；至少不要期待债务削减推动国债反弹。两年前，人们认为，到经济周期的这个时点，政策制定者将会讨论如何削减美国庞大的债务负担。但希拉里不是财政政策方面的鹰派人物，相反，她似乎倾向于财政刺激政策，并且可能试图通过这种方式取悦桑德斯的支持者。

And, while the Tea Party wing of theRepublican party is eager to slash debt, Mr Trump has built a career onexploiting leverage. He has vaguely promised to get rid of America’s $15tn debtin eight years; but he also wants to create jobs, boost growth and protectentitlements. Little wonder that traditional fiscally hawkish Republicansdislike him.

而且，尽管共和党内的茶党派系渴望削减债务，但特朗普的职业生涯就是建立在利用杠杆的基础之上。他含糊地承诺在8年内消除美国15万亿美元的债务；但他也希望创造就业机会、促进增长和保护福利。难怪传统的共和党财政鹰派人士不喜欢他。

Third, embrace infrastructure stocks —whoever wins. Mr Trump built his brand with construction, and were he to win inNovember he would be likely to unleash a national infrastructure campaign tocreate jobs and growth. He likes the idea of being a second Franklin Roosevelt,the man who built America’s highway system.

第三，买入基础设施股票——无论谁赢得大选。特朗普通过建筑业创建了自己的品牌，如果他在今年11月赢得大选，他很可能发起全国性的基础设施建设活动来创造就业和促进增长。特朗普喜欢成为第二个富兰克林•罗斯福(Franklin Roosevelt)的想法——罗斯福打造了美国的公路体系。

But Mrs Clinton may do this too. After all,as Lawrence Summers, the former US Treasury secretary, recently pointed out,the beauty of infrastructure spending is that it could create middle-class jobsand growth at a time when monetary policy has reached its limits —at least,if you do not mind raising debt.

但希拉里也可能推动基础设施建设。毕竟，正如美国前财长劳伦斯•萨默斯(Lawrence Summers)最近指出的那样，基础设施支出的魅力在于，它可以在货币政策达到极限的时候创造中产阶级就业和经济增长——最起码如果你不介意债务上升的话。

Fourth, expect currency volatility. Themost eye-grabbing element of Mr Trump’s campaign so far has been his threatsabout trade protectionism. But Mrs Clinton has turned more protectionist, too,toning down her support of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. No one knows if hernewfound caution will actually change trade flows or supply chains. Butsabre-rattling on the global stage could certainly quickly unleash somecurrency swings.

第四，预计汇率会出现波动。特朗普的竞选活动迄今最吸引眼球的地方是他威胁要实施贸易保护主义。但希拉里也越来越带有保护主义色彩，在言语上减少了对《跨太平洋伙伴关系》（Trans-Pacific Partnership，简称TPP）的支持。没有人知道，她的新的谨慎立场是否会真的改变贸易流动或者供应链。但全球舞台上的威胁恫吓肯定会很快引发一些汇率波动。