如何抵御右翼民粹主义的唐纳德特朗普

The rise of Donald Trump is, as I argued last week, a symptom of the failings of elites, notably, but not exclusively, the Republican Party’s elite. Mr Trump is successfully channelling aggression and anger. That tactic is not new. Again and again, it has brought demagogues to power. But demagogues do not give answers. On the contrary, they makes things worse.

正如我上周所辩称的那样，唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的崛起，是美国精英们失败的一个迹象。这主要指共和党精英的失败，但也不全是。特朗普正成功地煽动攻击心理和愤怒。这并不是新手法。古往今来，这种战术一而再、再而三地让煽动者获得大权。但煽动者给不出问题的答案。相反，他们让事情变得更糟糕。

Many seem to think that things could not get worse. Oh yes, they could. Things could get far worse, not just in the US, but across the world. This is why Mr Trump is so dangerous: he has no notion of the foundations of US success.

许多人似乎认为，事情不可能变得更糟。这话不对，它们可能变得更糟，而且糟糕得多，不仅是在美国国内，而且在全世界范围都是如此。这就是特朗普如此危险的原因：他不懂美国成功的根基是什么。

Mr Trump is a rightwing populist. Populists despise institutions and reject expertise. They offer, instead, charisma and ignorance. Rightwing populists also blame foreigners. Mr Trump adds to all this a zero-sum view of “the deal”.

特朗普是一个右翼民粹主义者。民粹主义者鄙视制度，排斥专长。相反，他们提供个人魅力和无知。右翼民粹主义者还会谴责外国人。特朗普为这一切增添了零和观点的大格局概念。

In any country, embrace of the delusions of populism is disturbing. In Italy, for example, Silvio Berlusconi’s ability to play the pied piper to the misguided lost the country two decades of reform. Yet the US matters more: it has shaped the modern world by spreading enduring institutions built upon legally binding commitments.

在任何国家，民众拥抱民粹主义的幻觉都是令人不安的。例如，在意大利，西尔维奥•贝卢斯科尼(Silvio Berlusconi)向被误导者扮演“彩衣吹笛人”的能力，使本国失去了20年的改革机会。不过，美国更为至关重要：美国通过传播在具有法律约束力的承诺基础上打造的持久性制度，塑造了现代世界。

Two results of what was a bipartisan achievement are noteworthy. The first is that the US has potent allies. Neither China nor Russia has such allies. They do not even trust each other. The US has allies only partly because it is so powerful; it is still more because it has been trustworthy. The second is that the US has accepted enduring commitments. The obvious example is in its promotion of trade. Without that, the progress of many emerging economies in recent decades could not have happened.

两党共同取得的成就带来的两个结果值得关注。首先是美国拥有强有力的盟友。中国或俄罗斯都没有这样的盟友。两国甚至彼此都不信任。美国拥有盟友，仅仅在一定程度上是因为美国如此强大；更重要的原因在于美国一直是值得信赖的。其次是美国接受了持久的承诺。美国对贸易的促进是一个明显的例子。没有这一点，近几十年来许多新兴经济体的发展是不可能发生的。

With his transactional view of the world, Mr Trump could well discard both alliances and institutions. This would damage, perhaps destroy, today’s economic and political order. He and his supporters might believe that the US would escape unscathed if it tore up its commitments. They are wrong. If the word of the US proved worthless, everything would change, for the worse.

特朗普的“交易型世界观”意味着，他很可能抛弃联盟和制度。这将损害、甚至摧毁当今的经济与政治秩序。他和他的支持者们可能认为，如果撕毁承诺，美国不会受什么损失。他们想错了。如果美国的承诺被证明毫无价值，那么一切都将变得更糟糕。

Mr Trump’s indifference to the credibility of the US goes deeper still. The country provides the world’s most important financial asset: US Treasuries. Since the fiscal position of the US has deteriorated, caution is necessary. So what does the presumptive nominee of the supposedly fiscally prudent party propose? According to the Tax Policy Centre, his (hugely regressive) tax proposals would raise federal debt by 39 per cent of gross domestic product, relative to the baseline. One response might be huge cuts to spending, which he has not explained to his gullible supporters. Another would be a default. He “loves playing with” debt, he says. He even contemplates buying US debt back at a discount. Such “playing” would destroy the credit built up since Alexander Hamilton, the first US Treasury Secretary, devastating global finance.

特朗普对于美国信誉的漠不关心可能走得更远。美国提供了世界上最重要的金融资产：美国国债。由于美国的财政状况有所恶化，谨慎一些是必要的。那么，理应在财政上审慎的共和党的假定总统候选人提议了什么？根据税收政策中心(Tax Policy Center)的说法，他抛出的（高度累退性质的）税收提议将使联邦债务与基线相比，增加相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的39%。对策或许是大幅削减开支，他并未向轻信的选民解释这一点。另一条对策将是违约。他说，他“喜欢玩”债务游戏。他甚至在考虑以折扣价回购美国债务。如此“玩债”将会摧毁自美国第一任财长亚历山大•汉密尔顿(Alexander Hamilton)以来积累起来的信用，毁掉全球金融。

Some claim Mr Trump feigns commitment to policies he knows would destroy US credibility and devastate global stability. Yet if he were really so dishonest, what might his limits be? Folly or cynicism — which would be worse?

有些人声称，特朗普只是在假装支持那些他知道将摧毁美国信誉和破坏全球稳定的政策承诺。不过，如果他真的如此不诚实，那么他的极限可能是什么？愚蠢或是玩世不恭，哪种情况更糟糕？

It is still quite likely, albeit far from certain, that Mr Trump will be defeated. That might depend on whether Bernie Sanders decides to run as an independent. But if he were defeated, would that be the end of the matter? Arguably, not. Yes, the populist moment might pass. But it might also not do so. The domestic legitimacy of the US role in the world economy has understandably eroded.

尽管远非确定，但特朗普被击败的可能性仍然相当大。这或许要取决于伯尼•桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)是否决定以独立候选人身份参选。但是，如果特朗普真被击败，事情就结束了吗？可以说，不会。是的，民粹主义时刻或许会过去。但也可能不会过去。可以理解的是，国内对于美国在世界经济中角色的合法性认识已被削弱。

This is partly because of the financial crisis, but also because many Americans have done poorly in recent decades. This is not just a US problem. Branko Milanovic has noted in his book Global Inequality that the upper-middle class — largely the middle and lower classes of high-income countries — has done relatively poorly in recent decades. Princeton professors Anne Case and Angus Deaton note, in addition, a sharp relative deterioration in mortality and morbidity among middle-aged white American men, due to suicide, and drug and alcohol abuse. This surely reflects the despair of these people. It is tough to fail in a culture that worships personal success. Support for Mr Trump among this group must express this despair. As their leader, he symbolises success. He also offers no coherent solutions. But he does provide scapegoats.

原因部分在于金融危机，也在于很多美国人近几十年来境况不佳。这并非仅仅美国的问题。布兰科•米拉诺维奇(Branko Milanovic)在他的《全球不平等》(Global Inequality)一书中指出，中上阶层人士——主要是指高收入国家的中下阶层人士——在近几十年里日子过得相对较差。此外，普林斯顿大学(Princeton)教授安妮•凯斯(Anne Case)和安格斯•迪顿(Angus Deaton)指出，由于自杀、吸毒和酗酒，美国中年白人的死亡率和患病率升高得很厉害。这当然反映出了这些人的失望情绪。在一个崇尚个人成功的文化里，失败是很难受的。这个群体对特朗普的支持肯定是在表达这种绝望。作为他们的领袖，他象征着成功。他并未提供说得通的解决方案。但他的确提供了替罪羊。

If rightwing populism is to be defeated, one must offer alternatives. In a forthcoming article, Dartmouth College’s Douglas Irwin notes that protectionism is quack medicine. Productivity growth accounted for more than 85 per cent of the job losses in manufacturing between 2000 and 2010. Effective policies would include generous earned-income tax credits, combined with higher minimum wages. The evidence from the UK is that this mixture can be highly effective. Anger over illegal immigration is also understandable. Employers of undocumented workers should surely suffer heavy penalties.

若想击败右翼民粹主义，我们必须提供替代解决方案。在一篇即将发表的文章里，达特茅斯学院(Dartmouth College)的道格拉斯•欧文(Douglas Irwin)指出，保护主义是一剂假药。2000年至2010年，生产率提高造成了85%以上的制造业失业。有效的政策将包括慷慨的低收入补助工薪抵税额和更高的最低工资。英国的证据表明，这两个办法的结合可能非常有效。对于非法移民的愤怒也是可以理解的。雇用无证工人的公司当然应受到重罚。

US banks have paid more than $200bn in fines. But almost nobody has gone to prison. Combined with the (necessary) rescue of the financial sector, this has generated a widespread belief that the system is being exploited by morally disreputable insiders.

美国的银行支付了逾2000亿美元的罚款。但几乎没有人入狱。再加上对金融部门（必要的）纾困，这让人们普遍相信，整个体制被道德败坏的内部人利用了。

More fundamentally, within the high-income countries, the gainers from globalisation and technology feel no apparent responsibility for losers. Lowering taxes should not be everything. Above all, the system’s legitimacy depends on elite performance, which has been poor.

更为根本的是，在高收入国家内部，受益于全球化和技术的赢家显然没觉得自己对输家有什么责任。减税不应该是一切。最重要的是，体制的合法性取决于精英的表现，而他们的表现非常糟糕。

The US commitment to both institutions and alliances was right. The creation of an open and dynamic world economy and broadly co-operative relations among the powers remains a great achievement. Yet the greed, incompetence and irresponsibility of elites has now brought forth great populist rage. Mr Trump’s rise is a symptom of a disease that he would undoubtedly exacerbate. If it is not too late, people must now find more effective ways to cure it.

美国对制度和联盟的承诺是正确的。创造出一个开放且具有活力的全球经济，并在大国之间建立起大体上合作的关系，仍是一项伟大的成就。然而，贪婪、无能且不负责任的精英们现在引燃了民粹主义怒火。特朗普的崛起是一种疾病的症状，他无疑会加剧这种疾病。如果现在还不算太晚的话，人们必须找到更为有效的“治病”方法。