曾俊华担心香港面临一场完美风暴

Hong Kong's finance chief is having a mid-summer's nightmare, worried that political problems could collide with economic ones to wreak havoc on the city.

香港政府财政主管担心，政治、经济问题相碰撞可能会给香港造成恶劣影响。

In an entry posted to his personal blog Sunday, Financial Secretary John Tsang said he was very worried that the cloud of political uncertainty looming over Hong Kong could help to bring about a 'perfect economic storm.'

香港财政司司长曾俊华(John Tsang)在周日发表的一篇博客文章中称，他非常担心香港当前面临的政治风险可能会引发一场“完美的金融经济风暴”。

Mr. Tsang painted a gloomy picture of the city's outlook amid a slowing economy, rising unemployment and other complicated risk factors and said political problems could exacerbate the negative climate. 'If there is an additional factor of political uncertainties, it may cause a perfect financial and economic storm, opening up the opportunities for international speculators. The consequence would be very undesirable,' Mr. Tsang wrote.

曾俊华在博文中为香港的未来描绘了一幅阴暗的图景，经济增长放缓、失业率上升等各种错综复杂的风险因素令香港难以应付，而政治问题可能进一步加剧恶劣形势。他写道：“如果再加上本地政局不稳，可能引发一场完美的金融经济风暴，为国际大鳄提供机会，后果不堪设想。”

Mr. Tsang's stark warning doesn't come totally out of the blue. Despite recent heated debate and massive protests against Beijing's influence over the development of Hong Kong's democratic process, demand for Hong Kong's currency has spiked over the last few weeks. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the city's de facto central bank, has injected billions dollars in the foreign-exchange market over last few weeks to prevent the Hong Kong dollar from rising beyond its currency peg -- a range of HK$7.75-HK$7.85 per U.S. dollar.

曾俊华的警告并非完全出人意料。尽管近期有关北京干涉香港民主进程的争论加剧并引发了大规模的抗议活动，但港元需求在过去几周大幅上升。香港金管局(Hong Kong Monetary Authority)过去几周向外汇市场注入了数十亿港元，以防港元汇率突破1美元兑7.75-7.85港元交易区间的上限。

This uneasy balance between economic and political freedom has only served to fuel protests in Hong Kong. The 'Occupy Central' movement has called for protesters to paralyze the city's business district later this year if a promised government blueprint for universal suffrage fails to meet international standards. In recent months, the clashes have become more intense. The pro-establishment camp--representing the government and business interests--has launched a counter-offensive of its own, trying to derail the Occupy Central movement.

经济自由与政治自由之间这种不稳定的平衡只加剧了香港的抗议活动。“占领中环”运动发出了这样的号召：如果政府承诺的普选方案未能达到国际标准，示威者就要在今年晚些时候让香港的商业区陷入瘫痪。最近几个月，冲突已更加激烈。代表政府和企业利益的亲建制派已开始反击，试图瓦解“占领中环”运动。

But many analysts say Mr. Tsang's concerns are likely overblown and that they don't expect the protests to have a huge effect on the city's economy.

但许多分析人士认为，曾俊华的担忧可能有些过头，他们预计抗议活动不会对香港经济产生太大影响。

'We remain hopeful that a last-minute deal on universal suffrage will be struck between Beijing and Hong Kong,' said Daiwa Capital Market senior economist Kevin Lai. 'But even if this does not happen, to say the Occupy Central protest would bring devastating consequences to the city is far-fetched,' he said, adding that Hong Kong demonstrators don't have a reputation for violence or revolutionary bravado.

大和资本市场(Daiwa Capital Market)的高级经济学家赖志文(Kevin Lai)表示：我们仍希望中央与香港能在最后一刻就普选达成一致意见。但他说，即便双方没有达成一致，断言“占领中环”将给香港带来灾难性后果也有些言过其实。他还称，香港的示威者从来没有搞暴力或革命运动的名声。

Politics in mainland China, rather than at home, look most likely to affect the city's economy in the short to medium-term. 'Hong Kong's tourism and retail sales have been hit by China's anti-graft and thrift campaign,' Mr. Lai said. Changes in Chinese visitors' spending patterns have dampened Hong Kong's retail revenue as well, he said.

与香港政局相比，中国大陆的政治形势似乎更能在中短期影响香港经济。赖志文说，香港的旅游业和零售额已经因中国大陆的反腐倡廉运动而受到重创。他说，大陆游客消费模式的变化也对香港的零售额构成拖累。