香港奢侈品市场风光不再
Wander around Hong Kong’s Harbour City on any given weekend, and among the crowds thronging the shopping mall, talk of a downturn might appear overdone. But it is quieter than in 2014, when queues of mainland Chinese formed just to get into luxury boutiques, driving sales that made the mall responsible for almost a tenth of the city’s entire retail spend.
找一个周末在香港的海港城(Harbour City)逛一逛，在商场拥挤的人群中，谈论衰退似乎有点小题大做。但这里的确比2014年安静多了，那时候从中国内地来的游客排成长队，只为进入这里的奢侈品专卖店，带来的销售额让这家商场几乎占了全港零售消费额的十分之一。
Recent retail news in Hong Kong has been disappointing. Year-on-year sales were down 21 per cent in February, according to government figures, as Chinese tourists sought new experiences in cities such as Seoul, Tokyo and Paris. After stripping out price changes, this was the biggest fall in Hong Kong retail sales since September 1998. Chow Tai Fook, the largest Chinese jewellery chain, said this month that it expects profits to be down 40-50 per cent on “weaker consumer sentiment in [the] Greater China region”.
香港零售业的近期新闻一直让人失望。随着内地游客到首尔、东京和巴黎等城市寻求新体验，根据政府数据，香港2月零售销售额同比下降21%。在剔除价格变化后，这是香港零售销售额自1998年9月以来的最大跌幅。中国最大的珠宝连锁店周大福(Chow Tai Fook)本月表示，预计利润将因为“大中华区消费者意愿减弱”而下滑40%到50%。
While Hong Kong’s swift change of fortune — as recently as 2014 Harbour City boasted the world’s highest sales per square foot — is unlikely to be exactly replicated elsewhere, it contains lessons for luxury watchers on how quickly China’s appetite for upscale goods and experiences can shift.
就在2014年，海港城还自豪地宣称其每平方英尺销售额为世界最高。香港零售业的风云变幻不太可能在别的地方完全重现，同时也给奢侈品行业的观察人士带来一个教训：中国人对高端商品和体验的兴趣转移得有多快。
Analysts attribute China’s changing habits to several factors, including exchange rate moves, but more importantly to evolving habits and tastes.
分析人士将中国人消费习惯的变化归因于几种因素，包括汇率变动，但更重要的是习惯和品味的不断变化。
“The luxury experience is not just about shopping. In Hong Kong, all the luxury brands are here and some of the fast fashion brands too — but there is not much diversity at mid-price points and there are a limited number of museums or cultural activities,” says Aaron Fischer, head of consumer and gaming research at brokerage CLSA. “But go to Tokyo, Seoul, Paris or Milan and you have a much wider number of options.”
“奢侈体验并非只包含购物。在香港，奢侈品牌应有尽有，还有一些快时尚品牌——但中端商品不太丰富，博物馆或者文化活动的数量也有限，”里昂证券(CLSA)主管消费品和博彩行业研究的艾伦•费舍尔(Aaron Fischer)说，“但如果去东京、首尔、巴黎或者米兰，你的选择要多得多。”
Japan and South Korea have become particularly hot, helped by favourable exchange rates. According to CLSA’s luxury price checks, goods in Tokyo 12 months ago were about 20 per cent cheaper than in Hong Kong — far from their long-run average of being about 20 per cent more expensive. But more recently, the yen’s rise against the US dollar — to which Hong Kong’s dollar is pegged — means that Japanese prices have again become more expensive, with a premium of roughly 10 per cent.
受到有利的汇率的助推，日本和韩国变得尤为热门。根据里昂证券的奢侈品价格调查，12个月前在东京售卖的商品要比在香港便宜20%——与长期以来东京比香港贵20%的情况相去甚远。但最近，日元相对于美元升值，而港币和美元挂钩，这意味着日本的商品价格再次变得更加昂贵，大约比香港贵10%。
More important for the luxury sector is the fact that last year marked a sea-change in habits: for the first time since it began its research in 2013, FT Confidential Research found Chinese tourists spent more on accommodation, food and entertainment combined abroad than on shopping. Year on year, shopping fell on average 6.9 per cent, and 10 per cent among wealthier travellers.
对于奢侈品行业而言，更重要的是，去年标志着消费者习惯出现了重大变化：英国《金融时报》旗下研究部门“投资参考”(FT Confidential Research)自2013年开始这项研究以来，发现在海外旅游的过程中，去年中国游客花在住宿、食物和娱乐上的总支出首次超过了购物支出。购物支出同比平均下降6.9%，较富裕游客的购物支出更是下降了10%。
Analysts put this down to well-travelled Chinese becoming more discerning. “The first time I went to Paris I bought a Hugo Boss suit because I could and it was my first trip. Now I buy coffees, I don’t buy more suits,” says Spencer Leung, a consumer industry specialist at UBS.
分析人士将这归结于旅游经历丰富的中国人正变得更有眼光。“我第一次去巴黎的时候买了一套Hugo Boss的西装，因为我买得起，而且那是我第一次旅行。现在我买咖啡，我不买更多的西装了，”瑞银(UBS)驻香港消费行业专员梁裕昌(Spencer Leung)说。
Mr Leung attributes the impressive recent rise in overseas trips and the sales growth for favoured brands to the pent-up demand within China where, for years, rising personal wealth was held back by travel restrictions.
梁裕昌将近期中国出境游大增和受青睐品牌销售额增长归因于中国受到压抑的需求。多年来，中国人日益增长的个人财富受到旅行限制的束缚。
“We haven’t had this situation anywhere else — where so much demand was held back. For Chinese, the world opened up much more quickly only after 2012 when countries started fighting for the Chinese tourist dollar and eased visa restrictions,” says Mr Leung.
“其他任何地方都没有过这样的情况——有如此之多的需求被抑制。对中国人来说，在2012年后世界的开放要快得多，各国开始争夺中国游客的美元并放松签证限制，”梁裕昌说。
Changing habits among western shoppers are repeated with their Chinese counterparts, particularly in fashion. Younger consumers are increasingly interested in niche brands they discover online — and which may not even need any physical presence such as a flagship store to drive sales.
西方购物者习惯的变化也在中国消费者身上重现，尤其是在时尚方面。更年轻的消费者对他们在线上找到的小众品牌日益感兴趣——这些品牌可能甚至都不需要如旗舰店等任何线下实体来拉动销售。
Global luxury brands have had mixed fortunes among Chinese consumers in the past year. According to FT Confidential Research’s Annual Chinese Outbound Tourism report, Chanel increased its popularity, with 26 per cent of respondents buying the brand, up from 20 per cent. Other winners include Coach, Hermès and Gucci, while Dior and Armani lost share.
过去一年中，全球奢侈品牌在中国消费者中间的人气有升有降。根据FT“投资参考”的《中国出境游年度报告》，香奈儿(Chanel)的人气提高了，购买该品牌的受访者比例从20%上升到26%。其他的赢家包括蔻驰(Coach)，爱马仕(Hermès)和古驰(Gucci)，而迪奥(Dior)和阿玛尼(Armani)的市场份额下降了。
For newer entrants, “to reach the level of brand awareness in China of a Chanel or a Louis Vuitton is going to take years,” says Aude Bousser, founder of LBB Asia, a luxury brand consultancy.
对于新入行者，“要在中国达到像香奈儿或者路易威登(Louis Vuitton)那样的品牌知名度需要许多年，”奢侈品牌咨询机构LBB Asia的创始人奥德•布塞(Aude Bousser)说。
The survey puts much of Chanel’s gains down to its bold strategy of cutting prices for some products by as much as 20 per cent in the mainland and in popular overseas destinations, including Hong Kong. This move is attributed in part to making up for the weakness of the euro against the renminbi and also to combating the grey market, where goods are sold through unauthorised retailers. Chanel increased prices in Europe at the same time so they would be “harmonised”, the company said.
该调查将香奈儿人气上升的一大原因归结于其大胆的策略。在中国内地以及热门的境外目的地（包括香港），香奈儿将某些产品降价高达20%。此举被认为部分是为了弥补欧元对人民币贬值，同时也是为了打击灰色市场（商品通过未授权的零售商卖出）。香奈儿同时在欧洲提高了价格以达到“协调”，该公司表示。
Among the challenges of working out prices and retaining Chinese shoppers, one of the most remarkable features is the unmatched pace of change.
在定价和留住中国购物者的种种挑战中，最显著的一个特征是变化快得让人无法跟上步伐。
Businesses catering to China’s luxury appetite are catching on. Despite the lack of queueing these days in Hong Kong’s Harbour City, last year the mall’s shift in strategy towards focusing on the overall experience helped pull in higher gross revenues than in the boom years — and bigger profits, too.
致力于迎合中国人奢侈品口味的企业正在迎头赶上。尽管近来香港海港城少有排队的现象，去年这家商场的策略转向更着重整体体验，这帮助实现了比繁荣时期更高的总收入——以及更高的利润。
