中国奢侈品市场风光不再 China's wealthy no longer putting on Ritz

On a quiet afternoon this week, one female shopper was browsing through pricey handbags in Beijing’s largely empty Shin Kong luxury mall.

最近一个静静的午后，一位女顾客在空荡荡的北京新光天地豪华购物中心浏览高价手袋。

“I buy all sorts of brands — Louis Vuitton, Chanel, Prada, Gucci,” said the financial consultant. “Now the price of luxury products in China is much better than before but mostly, I buy them when I go abroad every year.”

“我买各种品牌，路易威登(LV)、香奈儿(Chanel)、Prada、Gucci，”这位财务顾问说道，“现在国内奢侈品的价格比过去便宜多了，但我大多是在每年去国外时购买。”

She may be willing to splash out on big brand names at home and abroad, but Chinese shoppers like her are becoming scarcer. The effects of a government crackdown on expensive gift-giving and the deceleration in the economy are being compounded by changing consumer tastes.

她可能愿意拿出大笔钱在国内外购买大牌奢侈品，但像她这样的中国消费者正变得更加难找。政府对赠送昂贵礼品的打击以及经济增速放缓的影响，正与消费者品味改变交织在一起。

Luxury companies are also suffering from heady expansion based on what a report this week, from US think-tank the Demand Institute and its parent institution, the Conference Board, described as “overly optimistic growth and consumption projections” that have “misled foreign investors”.

奢侈品公司还尝到迅猛扩张的苦果，美国智库"需求研究所"(Demand Institute)及其上级机构“世界大型企业联合会”(Conference Board)最近的一份报告称，这种扩张基于“误导外国投资者”的“过于乐观的增长和消费预测”。

Luxury spending in mainland China fell last year for the first time, according to Bain & Co, to roughly 5bn. The consultancy expects it to contract a further 2 per cent at constant currency rates, steeper than last year’s 1 per cent decline.

根据贝恩(Bain & Co)的数据，去年，中国内地奢侈品支出首次下滑，为150亿欧元左右。该咨询公司预测，按不变汇率计算，今年将进一步下滑2%，降幅大于去年的1%。

That is a sharp reversal of a decade of remarkable growth, when Chinese luxury spending, at home and abroad, leapt tenfold — from 3 per cent of global luxury spending in 2004 to 30 per cent last year, according to Exane BNP Paribas.

那是对10年大幅增长的急剧逆转。根据法国巴黎银行证券部(Exane BNP Paribas)的数据，过去10年中国人在国内外的奢侈品支出跃增10倍，从2004年占全球奢侈品支出3%，升至去年的30%。

Without its main motor for growth, it is no longer a life of luxury for the world’s ㈠50bn industry, which is having to work harder to adjust to the complexities of a more mature and fragmenting market.

没有了主要增长推动力，2500亿欧元的全球奢侈品行业日子不再好过，该行业不得不加倍努力，以适应一个更成熟更分化的市场的复杂性。

Luca Solca, analyst at Exane BNP Paribas, says the Chinese market “hasn’t been great for anyone recently, but Prada and Burberry seem to be under greater pressure from China than their peers”.

巴黎银行证券部分析师卢卡∠尔卡(Luca Solca)表示，中国市场“近期的表现对任何品牌而言都不怎么好，但Prada和博柏利(Burberry)在中国面临的压力似乎超过业内同行。”

Burberry warned in October that sales had been dented by an “increasingly challenging environment for luxury, particularly Chinese customers”.

今年10月，博柏利警告称，“越来越具挑战性的奢侈品环境，尤其是中国顾客”影响了该公司销量。

Many of China’s wealthiest spenders have had their fill of the big names and are looking for something different, say analysts. Other, more price-conscious consumers, are buying online. Meanwhile, more Chinese citizens are travelling abroad, where they can see that prices are often 30 per cent cheaper abroad than at home.

分析师们表示，对很多中国富豪来说，该买的大品牌都买了，他们正在寻找不同的东西。对价格更敏感的其他消费者正在网上购物。与此同时，更多的中国公民到海外旅游，他们发现国外的价格往往比国内低出30%。

The devaluation of the renminbi in August reduced the price gap with Europe, though some luxury brands — notably Chanel — had already tried to address the problem by standardising prices on some of its bags worldwide.

8月的人民币贬值缩窄了与欧洲的价格差距，尽管一些奢侈品牌（特别是香奈儿）此前已试图通过对部分手袋实行全球统一价来解决这个问题。

As Angelica Cheung, editor-in-chief of Vogue China, says: “The market has changed so much in the past 12 months, not only because of the economy but also because of technology and travel. The companies haven’t moved as quickly.”

正如《Vogue》中国版总编张宇(Angelica Cheung)所言：“过去12个月里，市场改变了很多，其原因不仅仅在于经济，还在于科技和旅游。相关企业未能跟上。”

But luxury companies will have to move fast because their expectations of cohorts of new spenders from an emerging middle class are too bullish, as highlighted by the Demand Institute. “Most Chinese citizens have a long way to go before entering the middle class,” it said.

但奢侈品公司将必须快速拿出对策，因为他们对于不断壮大的中产阶层带来大批新顾客的预期过于乐观。正如“需求研究所”所指出的：“多数中国公民在跻身于中产阶层之前还有很长一段路要走。”

Louise Keely, a co-author of its report, described as a “myth” the expectation of reaping benefits by opening luxury emporia in a host of smaller cities.

“需求研究所”报告作者之一路易丝蘒襗(Louise Keely)表示，通过在大批中小城市开设奢侈品购物中心来获益的指望是一个“神话”。

Luxury companies were attracted by the cheap rents on offer from local mayors anxious to boast a shiny new mall and by the big populations of even tertiary cities. But these consumers do not necessarily have the money for a Gucci or Louis Vuitton handbag.

近几年，奢侈品公司被地方政府提供的廉价租金以及二三线城市的庞大人口数量所吸引；地方政府官员急于用崭新的光彩夺目的购物中心来炫耀自己的政绩。但那里的消费者不一定有钱购买Gucci或路易威登手袋。

As a result of this rapid expansion, China has more luxury stores than any other country in the world, outpacing the US by a wide margin, according to Bernstein Research, and nearing saturation.

这种快速扩张的结果是，中国的奢侈品门店数量超过全球其他任何国家，伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)的数据显示，其数量大大超过美国，并正在接近饱和。

“Quietly brands have stopped opening new stores,” says Torsten Stocker, Hong Kong-based partner at consulting group AT Kearney.

咨询机构科尔尼(A.T. Kearney)驻香港合伙人唐仕敦(Torsten Stocker)表示：“一些大品牌正悄悄叫停开张新门店的计划。”

LVMH, the world’s biggest luxury goods group by sales, has closed three Louis Vuitton shops in China, including the brand’s first outlet in the southern city of Guangzhou, following closures in Harbin and Urumqi.

全球销售额最大的奢侈品集团LVMH已关闭其在中国的3家路易威登门店，包括该品牌在南方城市广州的首家门店，以及哈尔滨和乌鲁木齐的门店。

Jean-Jacques Guiony, the French company’s finance director, had said last month that the group might close some shops in second-tier cities. “China, Hong Kong and Macau are suffering,” he said. Sales of luxury goods are expected to contract 25 per cent in Hong Kong this year, according to Bain.

今年10月，这家法国公司的财务总监让-雅克盖恩伊(Jean-Jacques Guiony)表示，集团可能关闭其在中国二线城市的一些门店。他表示：“中国内地、香港和澳门正出现困境。”根据贝恩的数据，预计今年香港奢侈品销售额将收缩25%。

The UK’s Burberry and Coach of the US have scaled back in Hong Kong, where rents are rising but the number of Chinese visitors is falling.

英国的博柏利和美国的蔻驰(Coach)均缩减了香港的业务，在这里，租金在上涨，但中国内地游客数量却在减少。

Beneficiaries of this shift include North Face, an outdoor brand, and sports companies such as Nike and Adidas, reflecting a growing emphasis on healthier lifestyles.

这种转变的受益者包括户外品牌North Face以及耐克(Nike)和阿迪达斯(Adidas)等运动品牌，这反映出人们越来越注重更健康的生活方式。

Some brands are going against the trend with new openings. Hermès, a relatively late entrant to the Chinese market, has expanded slowly, partly because of production constraints. It opened two new shops last year, making a total of 23, which is less than half the size of the network of Kering’s Gucci or Louis Vuitton.

一些品牌正逆势开店。进入中国市场相对较晚的爱马仕(Hermès)一直扩张缓慢，部分原因是产量限制。该品牌去年在中国新开两家门店，门店总量达到23家，不到开云集团(Kering)旗下的Gucci或路易威登门店数量的一半。

As Christopher Bailey, Burberry chief executive, said last month: “The fundamentals of the luxury industry are changing. Growth in Chinese luxury spending is moderating.”

正如博柏利首席执行官克里斯托弗贝利(Christopher Bailey)在10月所说过的：“奢侈品行业的基本面因素正在变化。中国人的奢侈品支出增速正在放缓。”

Those fundamentals include a newfound confidence among Chinese consumers that makes them less willing to accept what western luxury brands say they should buy.

这些基本面因素包括中国消费者找到了新的自信，不再那么愿意接受西方奢侈品牌传递的有关他们该买什么的信息。

“There been a real shift over the past two years in consumer perception about what the right product to buy should be,” says Benjamin Cavender of China Market Research in Shanghai, who says that these consumers perceive big brands as catering to the nouveau riche.

位于上海的中国市场研究集团(China Market Research Group)的本杰明愠蝓德尔(Benjamin Cavender)表示：“过去两年，消费者对于自己购买哪些产品才合适的观念真的发生了变化。”他表示，这些消费者认为大品牌迎合了暴发户的需求。

“It used to be about making a safe big brand purchase to show off. That’s shifted towards making purchases depending on the individual’s interests and lifestyle,” he adds.

他补充称：“过去，人们购买保险的大品牌产品是为了炫富。如今则转向根据个人兴趣和生活方式购买。”

Consumers also want to differentiate themselves by spending money on experiences, such as travel, fine dining and the home, instead of buying another designer product, says Emmanuel Hemmerle, managing partner at Emmanuel Hemmerle, a leadership consultancy.

埃曼努埃尔眠默尔埃梅莱(Emmanuel Hemmerle)是以他自己的姓名命名的领导力咨询公司的管理合伙人。他表示，消费者还希望通过把钱花在体验方面（例如旅游、美食和家居）来体现自己的不同，而不是购买另一款设计师产品。

He adds that seven years ago, the Michelin-starred Jean Georges restaurant in Shanghai “had a clientele which was 80 per cent French; now it’s 80 per cent Chinese”.

他补充称，7年前，上海的米其林(Michelin)三星餐厅Jean Georges “80%的客人是法国人；如今80%是中国人”。

Consumers are also showing more of an interest in homegrown brands, he says, which could favour a nascent domestic luxury industry. “People are going back to their roots because of a pride and a security in their identity.”

他表示，消费者还显示出更多的对本土品牌的兴趣，这可能有利于新兴的国内奢侈品行业。“出于对自身身份认同的自豪和安全感，人们正追本溯源。”

Luxury goods companies are reacting to these changes. Coach, the US leather goods group, is reaping the benefits within China of being more affordable than many of its upscale competitors, but says that spending by Chinese tourists is also growing.

奢侈品公司正对这些变化做出反应。美国皮革制品集团蔻驰在中国正因为产品价格较很多高端竞争对手更亲民而受益，但该集团表示，中国游客的支出也在增加。

“The Chinese tourist is an increasingly large part of our business globally — notably in Japan and Europe. We are staffing into this trend, increasing the number of Mandarin speaking store associates in these geographies,” it says.

该集团表示：“中国游客对我们全球业务的贡献越来越大，特别是在日本和欧洲。我们正迎合这种趋势，在这些地区增加说普通话店员的数量。”

The UK’s Burberry is focusing on digital marketing and shifting away from stores, cutting the number of retail staff in Hong Kong by 25 per cent. “In Hong Kong, we’re switching our investment from iconic out-of-home sites that target tourists, to emails, events and media more relevant to the local customer,” said Mr Bailey this month.

英国的博柏利正聚焦于数字营销并转向门店以外，将香港零售员工的数量减少25%。贝利最近表示：“在香港，我们正把投资从瞄准游客的标志性户外广告转向与当地顾客更相关的电邮、活动和媒体。”

The upside of shutting underperforming stores, and focusing on the more dynamic locations, is that China could become a more profitable country for luxury companies.

关闭业绩不佳的门店、专注于更具活力的经营地点的好处在于，对奢侈品集团而言，中国有望成为一个更加利润丰厚的市场。

Erwan Rambourg, luxury goods analyst at HSBC in Hong Kong, says: “Staff costs and rents remain reasonable relative to the rest of the world. We think profit margins will improve because the brands already have enough shops, so can rein in the capex for retail expansion that has weighed on profit margins.”

汇丰(HSBC)驻香港奢侈品分析师埃尔文朗堡(Erwan Rambourg)表示：“相对于全球其他地区，中国的员工成本和租金仍相对合理。我们认为，利润率将改善，因为各品牌已经拥有足够多的门店，能够压缩资本支出，无需进行拖累利润率的零售扩张。”

He says sales will recover but not overnight. It will take time for import taxes and consumption taxes to be lowered, which would reduce the gap between prices in China compared with other countries.

他表示，销售额将复苏，但不会一蹴而就。降低进口税和消费税（这将缩窄中国与其他国家之间的价格差距）需要时间。

There are some tantalising signs of improvement. Burberry said sales were picking up in China relative to its last quarter. Cartier-owner, Richemont said this month that growth had resumed in mainland China, lifted by retail sales through its own boutiques.

目前有一些令人心动的改善迹象。博柏利表示，在华销售额较上一季度出现起色。卡地亚(Cartier)所有者瑞士历峰集团(Richemont)上月表示，受专卖店零售销售的提振，中国业务已恢复增长。

Gary Saage, finance director of the Swiss group, last month told analysts that in Hong Kong “it’s getting a little less worse...戠甀琀 you know, I’m not going to be popping champagne on that”.

这家瑞士集团的财务总监加里萨吉(Gary Saage)在10月告诉分析师，在香港，“情况变得不那么糟糕了……但你们知道，我们不会为此开香槟庆祝”。

Broadened horizons: Chinese spending overseas

拓宽视角：中国人海外支出

Chinese tourism has taken off spectacularly in recent years, even though only 6 per cent of the population has a passport. Almost 120m Chinese travelled abroad last year, more than double the number five years ago.

近年中国旅游业的发展引人注目，即使全国仅有6%的人口持有护照。去年，赴海外旅游的中国游客达到近1.2亿人次，是5年前的两倍多。

These tourists are hugely important for the luxury goods industry because two-thirds of the 65bn of Chinese luxury spending last year took place outside China, some of it by middleman used by consumers to bypass the high taxes on luxury imports that make it cheaper to buy abroad.

这些游客对于奢侈品行业极其重要，因为中国人去年650亿欧元的奢侈品支出中，有三分之二发生在中国境外，其中一部分源自消费者利用中间人代购，绕过高额奢侈品进口税，后者使奢侈品在海外购买更便宜。

Wealthy travellers are tightening their purse strings, however. Per capita spending on shopping fell 8 per cent in 2014, year on year, according to FT Confidential Research, a Financial Times’ investment research service, because of the economic slowdown and the clampdown on gift-giving.

然而，富有的游客正收紧钱包。根据英国《金融时报》旗下的投资研究服务部门“投资参考”(FT Confidential Research)的数据，2014年，人均购物支出同比下降8%，原因是经济放缓和政府对礼品馈赠的打击。

Total spending increased, however, because the number of overseas trips grew 20 per cent.

不过，整体支出增加，因为海外旅行人次增长20%。

Yet the traditional destinations of Hong Kong for shopping and Macau for gambling, are not reaping the benefits of this rise because increasingly Chinese tourists prefer to travel to new destinations.

然而。传统的购物目的地香港和赌博目的地澳门没有从中获利，因为越来越多的中国内地游客更青睐新的目的地。

Hong Kong is also suffering from unfavourable exchange rates and the aftermath of last year’s political protests that have left many Chinese feeling unwelcome.

香港还受到不利汇率以及去年让很多内地人感到不受欢迎的政治抗议余波的影响。

South Korea and Japan are instead growing in popularity. A quarter of Chinese tourists chose South Korea for their first trip this year — double the number last year, according to FT Confidential.

韩国和日本正越来越受欢迎。根据“投资参考”的数据，今年有四分之一的中国游客把韩国作为首个出境游目的地，是去年人数的两倍。

France tops the list of destinations, though it is too soon to say whether last week’s terrorist attacks will deter visitors.

法国列在中国出境游目的地名单的首位，现在就断言最近的恐怖主义袭击会不会吓退游客还为时尚早。

The government in Beijing is trying to encourage shoppers to spend at home rather than abroad, through the development of domestic duty-free shopping zones, such as on Hainan island in the south.

中国政府正努力发展国内的免税购物区，例如南方的海南岛，鼓励消费者在国内支出。

Erwan Rambourg, analyst at HSBC, says: “We think that luxury sales in China will recover, thanks to lowered taxes and more domestic duty free outlets that will make purchasing abroad less compelling.”

汇丰分析师埃尔文朗堡表示：“我们认为，中国的奢侈品销售将复苏，因为税收下调以及国内更多的免税门店将让出国购物的吸引力下降。”