以色列安全不能靠枪炮维持

When last week I saw a White House spokesman say that Israel’s bombing of a UN school was “totally indefensible”, I briefly thought that I had witnessed something new. Surely the Americans had never before been that strong in condemning Israel? But a colleague with a longer memory reminded me that Israel’s siege of west Beirut in 1982 had provoked President Ronald Reagan (yes, Reagan) to telephone Menachem Begin, the Israeli prime minister, and accuse him of perpetrating a “holocaust”. There is nothing new about Israeli military action killing hundreds of civilians. There is also nothing new about the international outcry it provokes.

上周，当我看到一位白宫发言人形容以色列轰炸一所联合国(UN)创办的学校是“完全站不住脚的”，我在短暂的一瞬间以为自己看到了一些新的发展。以往美国人肯定从未这么强硬地谴责过以色列吧？可是一位记性比我更好的同事提醒我，以色列在1982年围困贝鲁特西区，曾促使美国总统罗纳德•里根(Ronald Reagan)（没错，就是里根）致电以色列总理梅纳赫姆•贝京(Menachem Begin)，指责他犯下了一场“大屠杀”。以色列的军事行动杀害成百上千名平民，这不是什么新鲜事。以色列的行动引发国际社会的声讨，这也不是什么新鲜事。

In the 32 years since Reagan called Begin, the Berlin Wall has fallen, the Soviet Union has collapsed, China has been transformed, apartheid has ended and the internet has revolutionised communication. But the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has rolled ever onwards – with two intifadas, three invasions of Gaza, further wars in Lebanon and innumerable failed peace initiatives.

里根致电贝京以来的32年里，柏林墙倒塌了，苏联解体了，中国大变样了，南非的种族隔离结束了，互联网开启了一场通信革命。然而以色列和巴勒斯坦的冲突延续至今——其间发生了两次巴勒斯坦人起义(intifada)、三次加沙入侵、在黎巴嫩进行的进一步战争、以及无数次失败的和平倡议。

While the Israelis and the Palestinians remain locked in bloody conflict, however, the region around them is changing fast. For the moment, those changes are actually making Israel less vulnerable to international condemnation. In the longer term, shifts in global power suggest that Israel’s future will be bleak, particularly if it does not make peace with the Palestinians.

然而，在以色列人和巴勒斯坦人深陷血腥冲突的同时，他们周围的地区正在迅速地改变。眼下，这些改变其实让以色列少受国际社会谴责的影响。但从较长期看，全球实力的此消彼长意味着，以色列的未来将是暗淡的，如果它不能和巴勒斯坦达成和解就更是如此。

For now, Israel is benefiting from the fact that the Arab world, which has acted as the chief advocate for the Palestinians in previous conflicts, is ripping itself apart. Syria and Iraq are engulfed by conflict, and Libya is in turmoil. The Egyptian government itself has killed hundreds of supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood in Cairo and regards Hamas as an offshoot of the Brotherhood. Saudi Arabia, the other big power in the Arab world, is also deeply hostile to Hamas.

就目前而言，以往巴以冲突中巴勒斯坦的主要后台——阿拉伯世界——正在分崩离析，而以色列从中受益。叙利亚和伊拉克被卷入冲突之中，利比亚陷入动乱。在开罗，埃及政府杀死了数以百计的穆斯林兄弟会(Muslim Brotherhood)支持者，还将哈马斯(Hamas)看成一个脱胎于穆兄会的组织。阿拉伯世界的另一个大国沙特阿拉伯也对哈马斯怀有深深的敌意。

Outside the region, geopolitical shifts are taking the edge off the anti-Israel backlash. The governments of Russia, India and China are deeply concerned about the threat of radical Islam at home. Last week more than 100 people were killed in the Chinese province of Xinjiang, after fighting provoked by Muslim separatists. Russia also has 20m Muslim citizens and, after waging two brutal wars in Chechnya, is paranoid about Islamist militancy. Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, is a Hindu nationalist, who himself is accused of connivance in anti-Muslim violence.

在中东地区以外，地缘政治的变化也使针对以色列的反对力度减轻了。俄罗斯、印度和中国政府正为国内极端伊斯兰势力带来的威胁深感忧虑。上周，在中国新疆自治区，超过100人在穆斯林分裂分子引发的冲突中丧生。俄罗斯国内有2000万穆斯林公民，在对车臣进行两次残酷战争后，俄罗斯对伊斯兰主义武装组织极度恐慌。印度总理纳伦德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)是一位印度教民族主义分子，他本人被指责纵容反穆斯林暴力行动。

These political shifts are not reflected in official diplomacy. China, Russia and India voted in favour of an investigation of possible Israeli war crimes in Gaza, at the recent session of the UN Human Rights council. (EU countries abstained and the US voted against.) But there is something formulaic about the condemnation. An Israeli official says that in high-level meetings between Israeli and Chinese leaders, the Chinese spent “roughly 20 seconds” on Palestine. Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, and President Vladimir Putin of Russia get on famously.

官方外交并没有反映这些政治转向。在最近的一次联合国人权理事会(UN Human Rights council)投票中，中国、俄罗斯和印度对调查以色列在加沙可能犯下的战争罪投了赞成票。（欧盟各成员国弃权，美国投了反对票。）然而，对以色列的谴责有些模式化。一位以色列官员表示，在以色列和中国领导人进行高级别会晤时，中方花了“大概20秒”来谈论巴勒斯坦问题。以色列总理本杰明•内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)与俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)相处融洽也是广为人知的。

Yet while Israel’s traditional enemies are becoming less hostile, its allies are becoming less friendly. The relationship between Mr Netanyahu and US President Barack Obama is chilly – and some Israeli officials are openly contemptuous of John Kerry, the US secretary of state. Opinion polls in the US also suggest that young people are much less sympathetic to Israel than older groups are. However, such shifts may take decades to filter through into US policy. Israel’s position in Washington is deeply entrenched. The US Senate voted unanimously to support the Gaza assault and the Obama administration has combined its condemnation of Israeli actions with continued aid and arms sales.

然而，尽管以色列的传统敌人的敌意降低了，但其盟友也变得没那么友好了。内塔尼亚胡和美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)关系冷淡，而一些以色列官员公开表达对美国国务卿约翰•克里(John Kerry)的不屑。美国的民意调查也显示，相比老一辈来说，美国的年轻人对以色列的同情心少得多。不过，这些转变可能需要数十年才能渗入美国的政策。以色列在华盛顿的地位根深蒂固。美国参议院一致通过支持以色列进攻加沙，而奥巴马政府在谴责以色列行为的同时，继续向以色列提供援助和军售。

Many European leaders are openly appalled by Israel’s actions in Gaza and Europe’s large Muslim population has been at the forefront of anti-Israel demonstrations. But Europe’s Muslims are an often marginalised and unpopular group. Manuel Valls, the French prime minister, has condemned anti-Semitic demonstrations which he says have fused the “Palestinian cause, jihadism, the detestation of Israel and the hatred of France”. Any such fusion helps Israel because it reduces sympathy for the Palestinians.

许多欧洲的领导人公开表示对以色列在加沙的行动感到震惊，欧洲庞大的穆斯林人群是反以色列游行的先锋。然而欧洲的穆斯林是一个常常被边缘化、不受欢迎的群体。法国总理曼努埃尔·瓦尔斯(Manuel Valls)谴责了反犹太人游行，称这种游行混合了“巴勒斯坦的事业、圣战主义、对以色列的憎恶和对法国的仇恨”。任何把这些事情混合在一起的尝试都会帮助以色列，因为这会削弱对巴勒斯坦人的同情心。

Israeli settlements, would be largely symbolic in their impact. Surveying this global picture, Israel seems to have decided that it can afford to ignore international condemnation of the Gaza war. That calculation may prove correct, as far as the current conflict is concerned.

更宽泛地说，美国实力的相对下降，对于一个西方文化的前哨国家是个坏消息。美国介入中东冲突的意愿正在降低。这意味着，从长期来看，以色列只能通过与邻国和平相处来保证自身安全。每隔几年就把加沙变成一片废墟、杀害成百上千的平民，只能让和平的前景更加遥远。