李嘉诚出其不意 为何此时收购机队

At last an answer to a question that has long puzzled bankers: what deals can you bring a billionaire with a penchant for infrastructure but who seemingly already has everything?

你能给一位对基础设施有浓厚兴趣、但似乎已拥有一切的亿万富豪带来何种交易？这个问题困扰了银行家们很长时间，现在，它终于有了答案。

Li Ka-shing’s Cheung Kong Holdings revealed this week that it is in talks to buy a $5bn fleet of 100 aircraft being sold by Awas, a European lessor owned by Terra Firma, the private equity group.

本周，李嘉诚(Li Ka-shing)的长江实业(Cheung Kong Holdings)披露，该公司正在进行谈判，拟收购Awas出售的一支价值50亿美元的机队，该机队有100架飞机。Awas是私人股本集团泰丰资本(Terra Firma)拥有的一家欧洲租赁公司。

Discussions are at an early stage and other bidders are anticipated, but a successful deal would see aircraft leasing join an empire that already spans ports, telecoms, property, waste disposal, oil, water and electricity – plus pharmacies, supermarkets and other interests.

谈判正处于初期阶段，预计会有其他竞购方加入。若长江实业收购成功，这个业务已然涵盖港口、电信、地产、垃圾处理、石油、水务与电力、制药、超市和其他权益的商业帝国中，将出现飞机租赁业务的身影。

Mr Li’s legendary investment skills have made him Asia’s richest man but the aircraft leasing market has already enjoyed a multiyear boom, which hardly fits a reputation for buying low and selling high.

李嘉诚凭借传奇般的投资本领成为亚洲首富，但飞机租赁市场已经历多年的繁荣，此时出手收购与李嘉诚“低买高卖”的盛名不符。

“A lot of smart money got in a long time ago,” says Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at Teal Group, a US industry consultancy. “However, from an asset standpoint, it’s ideal. Buy the right aircraft and they are always in demand – and the assets are extremely mobile.”

“精明的投资者早就在这个市场大举投资了，”美国工业咨询公司蒂尔集团(Teal Group)分析师理查德•阿布拉菲亚(Richard Aboulafia)表示，“不过，从资产角度看，这是一笔理想的交易。买入合适的飞机，这些飞机始终有不小的需求——而且这些资产很容易移到别处。”

While Asia has one of the fastest-growing aircraft fleets as travel around the region expands, some analysts have queried the short-term profitability of leasing given the region’s huge order book for new aircraft. Should expansion fall short of target there is the risk of a glut of aircraft for hire.

随着亚洲旅行人次不断增长，该地区拥有了全球发展最快的机队之一，但有些分析师怀疑，鉴于该地区新飞机订单量巨大，飞机租赁业务的短期盈利可能会出问题。如果增长达不到预期，就存在可租用飞机供应过剩的风险。

Still, Mr Li is a long-term investor with a preference for infrastructure in countries with stable regulatory and common law systems. Adding a business with operations that can be relocated if one region experiences problems could complement that.

不过，李嘉诚是一位长线投资者，偏爱在拥有稳定监管制度和普通法系的国家投资基础设施。增添一项若某地区出问题便可移到别处运营的业务，能对其主要业务构成补充。

Once a scale game where large fleets ensured steady returns, aircraft leasing has undergone a structural change since the financial crisis.

飞机租赁业务一度是由规模决定的业务，拥有大型机队可确保稳定的回报，但自本次金融危机以来，这项业务已经历了一次结构变革。

As fuel costs soared and financing dried up, troubled fleet owners including AIG and Royal Bank of Scotland were forced to divest. Success now tends to be based on having newer, fuel-efficient aircraft and access to cheap funding.

随着燃油价格飞涨和融资枯竭，包括美国国际集团(AIG)和苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)在内，一些处境艰难的机队所有者被迫剥离飞机租赁业务。如今，这项业务的成功通常取决于拥有更新、更省燃油的飞机，以及能够融得廉价资金。

The aircraft being sold by Awas are two years old or less and Mr Li is unlikely to struggle to find finance in Hong Kong.

Awas所售飞机的机龄为两年或两年以下，而李嘉诚在香港应该也不难找到资金。

His infrastructure assets are held through Cheung Kong Infrastructure, Hutchison Whampoa and CKH – the holding company through which the others are controlled.

李嘉诚的基础设施资产是通过长江基建(Cheung Kong Infrastructure)、和记黄埔(Hutchison Whampoa)和长江实业持有的。长江实业是一家控股公司，李嘉诚通过它来控制长江基建与和记黄埔。

The three combined carry $20.5bn in net debt – 3.3 times their earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation in the past 12 months, according to S&P Capital IQ.

标普资本智商(S&P Capital IQ)的数据显示，这三家公司的净债务合计为205亿美元，是它们过去12个月息税折旧及摊销前盈利(EBITDA)的3.3倍。

While CKH is unrated, Hutchison and CKI both have stable, A-minus ratings from Standard & Poor’s.

标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)对和记黄埔和长江基建都给出了稳定的A-评级。长江实业未被评级。

Moreover, analysts say, Hong Kong’s currency peg with the US dollar could give Mr Li an edge over mainland Chinese lessors also thought to be interested in the Awas portfolio.

另外分析师表示，港元盯住美元的联系汇率制或许让李嘉诚相对于中国内地的租赁公司拥有了一种优势。中国内地的租赁公司也被认为对Awas的资产组合感兴趣。

“Everyone knows more or less what the most attractive assets are and what they’d like to invest in. That means if you can lower your cost of funds relative to others – and in US dollars – you will win more deals,” says Brendan McHenry, a senior risk analyst at Ascend, an industry consultancy.

“大家都或多或少知道最有吸引力的资产是什么，知道自己愿意投资什么。这意味着，如果你的融资成本能低于别人——并且融来的资金为美元——你就能赢得更多的交易，”工业咨询公司Ascend的高级风险分析师布伦丹•麦克亨利(Brendan McHenry)表示。

Banks have been queueing up to offer aircraft financing, creating the most competitive environment for lenders since the crisis and a boom in would-be lessors.

银行一直在排着队等待提供飞机融资，由此造就了本次危机以来对银行来说竞争最激烈的环境，并导致想从事飞机租赁业务的人大幅增加。

“The way someone looks at a deal is similar to looking at a bond – you have agreed cash flows with a counterparty of a given credit rating, then you have residual value to factor in,” says Mr McHenry.

麦克亨利表示：“人们看待交易的方式与看待债券相似——你与某个拥有特定信用评级的交易对手在现金流上达成一致，然后你要把残值计算进来。”

CKH did not immediately respond to a request for comment. But Mr Li’s ability to hold for the long term has been ably demonstrated by his investments in European mobile networks, which are only now paying off after years of heavy investment. Aircraft leasing could well suit a patient dealmaker.

长江实业没有立即回应记者的置评请求。但李嘉诚有能力长期持有资产，这一点在他对欧洲移动网络的投资中得到充分体现——在多年大举投资后，这块业务直到现在才开始产生回报。飞机租赁业务可能很适合一位有耐心的交易人。