英国不能因移民问题退欧

Can it make sense for the UK to leave the EU over its principle of free movement of people? The answer is: no. Immigration is indeed a big issue, as is UK membership of the EU. But the former must not drive the latter. Both are too important for that.

英国因为人员自由流动原则的关系而退出欧盟(EU)明智吗？答案是否定的。移民问题确实重要，英国的欧盟成员国身份也是如此。但不能为了前者而放弃后者，因为这两样东西都太过重要了。

Yet increasingly David Cameron, the UK prime minister, is boxing himself into a corner in his discussions with other members of the EU. This is largely a result of his party’s hysteria over the electoral success of the UK Independence party. It is also because a section of his party would welcome any excuse for leaving the EU. This blend of fear and hostility is driving Mr Cameron towards demanding derogations from the founding treaties’ principle of freedom of movement that he has no chance of securing. If he were to be prime minister after next year’s general election, he would have to campaign for a No vote in the referendum he would be mandated to call. Brexit is the likely outcome.

然而，在与其他欧盟成员国的讨论中，英国首相戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)日益把自己逼到了死角。这在很大程度上是他所属的保守党对英国独立党选举获胜反应过度造成的。还有一个原因是，保守党内有一部分人对脱离欧盟的任何理由都表示欢迎。对移民的恐惧加上敌意，正推动卡梅伦一步步迈向要求废除欧盟创立公约中的自由迁徙原则——而这是根本不可能办到的。如果在明年的大选之后仍然担任首相，卡梅伦将不得不在自己授权举行的公投中呼吁民众投反对票。“英国退欧”(Brexit)是很可能的结果。

The news that the UK registered a 43 per cent year-on-year increase in net immigration in the year to June 2014 will add fuel to these flames. The figure of 260,000 for net immigration in the most recent 12 months exceeds that of any previous calendar year. It makes a mockery of the government’s promise to reduce net immigration to below 100,000. But the coalition did not have the levers to deliver on this promise, just as it will not be allowed to control immigration from the EU while staying inside. Promising what one cannot deliver is, as King Canute taught, folly. But Canute was trying to deliver a lesson. Mr Cameron was not.

在截至2014年6月的一年时间里，英国净移民人数同比增长43%的消息，更是火上浇油。英国在最近12个月的净移民人数是26万，超过了之前任何一个自然年。这让英国政府将净移民人数降至10万以下的承诺变成了个笑话。但英国联合政府缺乏兑现这个承诺的手段，欧盟也不可能允许它既留在欧盟内、又控制来自欧盟的移民。做出无法兑现的承诺是愚蠢的，正如克努特大帝(King Canute)在《克努特大帝在海边》的故事中学到的那样。克努特国王当时那样做是为了给身边那些溜须拍马的官员一个教训，卡梅伦则不是。

The government could not deliver on its immigration target partly because it cannot control inflows from the EU and partly because it cannot control emigration. The most it could ever do was control gross immigration from outside the EU. Yet it has failed even to bring these flows into line with its promises.

英国政府之所以无法实现其移民目标，部分原因在于它无法控制来自欧盟的移民数量，还有部分原因在于它无法控制英国迁往海外的移民数量。它能做的至多不过是控制来自欧盟以外移民的总人数。然而，英国政府甚至在这方面也未能兑现承诺。

In the year to June 2014, net inflows from outside the EU were 168,000. This was 37 per cent below the calendar year peak of 266,000 in 2004. But it was, even so, 18 per cent larger than the net inflow from the EU. In fact, even if the net inflow from the EU had been zero, the government would have failed to push overall net immigration below 100,000, since net emigration of British citizens was only 50,000.

在截至2014年6月的一年时间里，来自欧盟外部的净移民人数是16.8万。这比2004年度26.6万的峰值少了37%。但即便如此，这个数字仍比来自欧盟的净移民人数高出18%。实际上，即便来自欧盟的净移民人数是零，英国政府也无法让净移民总数降至10万以下，因为英国公民净外迁人数仅有5万。

The predominant focus on immigration from the EU is in large part a displacement activity. So is the worry that a significant proportion of the latter are “welfare tourists”. A high proportion of immigrants from the EU come to work, being attracted by the UK’s relatively dynamic, high-employment economy. The latest census showed, for example, that 80 per cent of immigrants from the EU who were of working age and who had been present in the UK for between five and 10 years were in employment; against 69 per cent of all those born in the UK and 61 per cent of those born outside the EU. Not surprisingly, the evidence also shows that immigrants from the EU, being young and active, make a large net fiscal contribution.

将主要矛头对准来自欧盟的移民，这在很大程度上是在寻找替罪羊。关于很大部分来自欧盟的移民是“福利游客”的担忧也是如此。来自欧盟的移民有很大一部分是来工作的，英国相对活跃的经济和高就业率吸引了他们。例如，最新的人口普查显示，处于就业年龄、且在英国生活的时间在5至10年之间的欧盟移民，有80%在工作，在英国本土出生的人口的这一比例是69%，出生于欧盟以外地区的人口的这一比例则为61%。毫不意外的是，还有证据表明，来自欧盟的移民年轻而富有活力，为英国财政做出了巨大的净贡献。

True, if they stay, that may change. Yet, as the Centre for European Reform’s report on the economic consequences of leaving the EU showed, the view that immigration from the EU has imposed huge net economic costs on the UK is utterly unfounded. This does not mean it has made a large net contribution to the economic welfare of those already resident. That is more debatable: the evidence is that the preponderance of the benefits of immigration accrue to migrants themselves. But the presence of hard-working and ambitious people speaking a multitude of languages and offering a diversity of cultures, while fitting within the predominantly liberal culture of the UK, should surely be welcome. Even if one takes into account the costs of additional spending on infrastructure and possible effects on house prices, the view that this immigration can itself be a reason for leaving the EU speaks of a grim lack of confidence in the future.

诚然，如果这些欧盟移民在英国生活的年头继续增加，这种情况可能会改变。然而，正如欧洲改革中心(Centre for European Reform)关于退欧经济后果的报告所显示的那样，欧盟移民让英国付出了巨大经济净成本的观点根本站不住脚。这并不意味着欧盟移民对英国原有居民的经济福利做出了巨大的净贡献——这一点还有较大争议：有证据表明，移民带来的好处，主要让移民本身受益。但这些移民勤奋而有抱负，说着各种不同的语言，带来了多元的文化，同时也融入了英国基本上比较自由的文化，他们的到来当然值得欢迎。即便将基础设施额外支出的成本和对房价的可能影响考虑在内，如果你认为移民本身可以成为退欧的理由，那么你对未来也太缺乏信心了。

It makes sense for the UK to have a debate on immigration and to recognise both the opportunities and challenges it creates. It makes sense, too, to have a proper and rounded debate on the UK’s place in the continent of which it will always be a part. Immigration from the EU is neither the dominant element in immigration, nor is it is particularly problematic. The reverse is far closer to the truth. Immigration is the wrong issue to focus on in this debate.

英国就移民问题进行辩论、认识到移民带来的机遇与挑战，这是明智的。英国将始终是欧洲的一部分，就英国在欧洲的位置举行适当而全面的辩论，这同样是明智的。来自欧盟的移民既不是主导移民问题的核心因素，也不是格外成问题的部分；事实其实恰恰相反。把这场辩论的焦点集中在移民问题上是错误的。

Equally, the decision on whether to stay in the EU will shape the UK’s future for the indefinite future. It would be folly to let a paroxysm of anxiety over immigration drive this debate. Unfortunately, that degree of stupidity seems frighteningly near.

同样，是否留在欧盟，将在无限期的未来地决定英国的未来是什么样子的。让对移民问题的突发忧虑左右这场辩论的走向，将是愚蠢的。遗憾的是，这样的蠢事看上去近在眼前。