瞅准时机: eBay小步快跑杀回中国

John Donahoe may have rescued eBay from decline, but the e-commerce company has yet to convince some corners of Wall Street it can sustain its rapid growth.

约翰?多纳霍似乎已将eBay从颓势中挽救了回来，但这家电商公司还得向华尔街证明，它能维持快速增长的态势。

In its first-quarter financials out this week, eBay (EBAY) slightly beat earnings estimates, with net income up 19% year over year to $677 million on revenues of $3.7 billion, led by PayPal's continued rise and the recent turnaround of Marketplaces, which includes the eBay website. But a lower-than-expected second-quarter outlook -- between $3.8 billion and $3.9 billion in sales vs. analysts' consensus of $3.95 billion -- paired with PayPal's slowest growth period in some time, did not sit well with investors. The news sent eBay shares down 2% in after-hours trading.

它的增长主要是由贝宝（PayPal）的持续增长及市场复苏带来的，其中就包括了eBay自己的网站人气回升。但是第二财季低于预期的业绩展望——销售收入在38亿美元到39亿美元之间，而分析师一致预期该收入为39.5亿美元——加之贝宝的业务不时停滞不前，让投资者颇为不安。消息传来，eBay股价在收盘后交易中下挫了2%。

The results have left some analysts wondering: with the turnaround in its rear-view mirror, how can eBay keep up the pace?

这个结果让一些分析师不免心生疑窦：眼看着市场迎来转机，eBay怎么才能保持增速呢？

At the company's Investor and Analyst Day last month, eBay CEO Donahoe and other executives outlined their goals for the next three years. The company projected revenues as high as $23.5 billion come 2015 -- vs. last year's $14.1 billion in sales -- tied to $300 billion in global commerce from eBay's Marketplaces, PayPal, and GSI Commerce, the last of which builds and manages online shopping sites for big retailers. Just as ambitious? Donahoe wants to double eBay's user base to 200 million-plus by 2015.

eBay上个月举行投资者与分析师通气会（Investor and Analyst Day）时，公司首席执行官多纳霍和其他高管一起阐述了未来三年的目标。公司预计，2015年收入将高达235亿美元——而去年销售收入仅为141亿美元。这个预测的基础是eBay市场、贝宝和GSI Commerce全球3,000亿美元的商务价值。其中GSI Commerce是专为大型零售商创建和管理网购平台的。这个目标算是雄心勃勃吗？实际上多纳霍还计划，到2015年实现eBay用户翻一番，达到2亿人以上。

To achieve such lofty goals, eBay is focusing on boosting its customer experience. Marketplaces, for instance, will be rolling out features in the coming months and years that will amplify users' relationships with the retailer and use mobile devices in new ways. At Investor Day, eBay put together an impressive demo of a mobile feature dubbed Neighborhoods. Far from finished, Neighborhoods will be a comprehensive mapping feature that aggregates available items from all participating stores -- large and small -- in your neighborhood (e.g. New York City's West Village). Items will be displayed onscreen and can be purchased with a few finger taps, then shipped home, possibly via same-day delivery, or picked up in-store.

为了实现这些宏伟目标，eBay正致力于提升用户体验。比如，eBay市场就将在未来数月和数年中推出各种新功能，加强用户与零售商的关系，并用全新的方式运用移动设备。通气会当天，eBay推出了一项名为“社区”（Neighborhoods）的移动应用功能演示，令人印象深刻。目前这项功能还远未开发完成，未来它将是一个包罗万象的地图功能，能把用户所在社区（比如纽约的西村）所有加盟店——不管规模大小——的所有在售商品都集中起来。这些商品将在移动设备上展示出来，只需点击几下就能购买，随后就能快递到家，还可能实现当天快递送达！或者也可去实体店自提。

Although PayPal remains the fastest-growing eBay segment, its 18% growth last quarter falls short of any quarter last year, indicating that the payments business could be feeling the squeeze from competitors like Square and Intuit, both of which are also developing online, offline, and mobile payment solutions. This likely explains why the company is aggressively pushing into brick-and-mortar locations. PayPal announced a deal late last year that will allow shoppers to pay using their PayPal accounts at any one of the 7 million-plus brick-and-mortar stores that take Discover (DFS), for instance.

尽管贝宝仍是eBay增长最快的业务板块，但它上季度18%的增速已低于去年任一季度。它表明，支付业务可能正受到竞争对手如移动支付技术公司Square和Intuit的挑战。这两家公司也都在开发线上线下及移动支付解决方案。这或许能解释，为什么eBay眼下正在大举进军实体店。去年年末，贝宝宣布达成了一项交易，可让购物者在其700多万家可使用Discover购物卡的合作实体店用贝宝账户付款。

EBay has its eye on additional international expansion. Indeed, 61% of Marketplaces revenues already come from outside the U.S. In China, where American online retailers are often rebuffed, eBay announced eBay Style, a partnership with luxury online retailer that allows Chinese shoppers to buy items from abroad. Meanwhile, handles domestic tasks like shipping and customer service, helping eBay gain a foothold in the region. "When we did that, we knew it was a small step back into the market," Wendy Jones, eBay VP of geographic expansion and cross border trade, told Fortune earlier this year. But she suggested the partnership with could be done with other Chinese companies to widen local distribution.

eBay还着眼于在国际市场进一步扩张。实际上，它61%的市场收入已来自美国以外的市场。尽管美国电商在中国屡遭挫败，但eBay却宣布成立了“eBay Style”。这是一家与奢侈品电商合作的公司，中国消费者可通过它购买海外商品。与此同时，还负责中国国内的发货及客户服务等业务，帮助易趣在中国市场获得了一席之地。今年年初，eBay负责区域扩张和跨境贸易的副总裁温迪?琼斯向《财富》杂志（Fortune）表示：“我们从一开始这么做的时候就明白，这只是为重返中国市场迈开的一小步”。她还暗示，也可和其他中国企业开展类似与的合作，以拓展中国本地分销渠道。

EBay also has big plans for eBay Now, the iPhone app that offers one-hour shipping of items from partners like Target (TGT) and Home Depot (HD) in three cities. The service will eventually find its way into Marketplaces, and Donahoe told Fortune recently he hopes the service will be ubiquitous, whether a customer lives in a big urban sprawl or small suburban town. Such an expansion would call for partnerships with third-party shipping and transportation systems. "I've had newspaper companies come to me and say, we have all these trucks. We deliver these newspapers, and these trucks don't get used after 8 a.m. in the morning ... Can we help deliver?" Donahoe recently told Fortune, who pointed out that newspaper trucks are in every city in America.

Bay还为eBay Now制定了宏伟规划。eBay Now是一个iPhone上的应用，它能在三个城市为用户提供一项特别服务，在一小时内送到来自eBay合作伙伴如塔吉特（Target）和家得宝（Home Depot）的商品。eBay市场最终也会提供这项服务。此外，多纳霍近期还向《财富》杂志表示，他希望这项服务能不分远近，不管客户是住在大城市还是小城镇，都能享受到它。要实现这一大举扩张，就需要和第三方物流运输体系开展合作。多纳霍说：“已经有报社来找我了，它们表示自己有卡车。这些车平时用来送报，早上8点以后就闲置不用了。所以是否能让它们来负责送货呢？”他指出，实际上美国所有城市都有这样的送报卡车。

That's a growth opportunity if ever there was one.

如果增长机遇确实存在，这绝对算一个。