欧盟或将面临解体危机 这些国家可能步英国后尘

There was no lack of doomsday rhetoric before Britain's referendum on E.U. membership. European Council President Donald Tusk warned that Britain leaving the European Union could seriously threaten "Western political civilization."

在英国对脱欧进行全民公投之前，就存在不少末日言论。欧洲理事会主席唐纳德·图斯克曾警告称，英国退出欧盟将会严重威胁"西方政治文明"。

Now, those fears have been stunningly amplified by the decision of British voters to break away. Predictions that the E.U. could break apart might be a bit far-fetched, but there certainly are other countries where demands for similar referendums could gain momentum.

现在，随着英国公投结果的尘埃落定，这些担心也令人震惊的被放大。预测欧盟将会解体可能还有点遥远，但这一定会给下面这些有可能需要进行类似公投的国家一些动力。

Sweden

瑞典

The country views itself as the Scandinavian equivalent of Britain: It refused to introduce the euro as a currency. And in terms of E.U. politics, Britain and Sweden agree on 90 percent of all issues. Hence, a Brexit would raise particular worries in Sweden.

瑞典把自己看作是"斯堪的纳维亚半岛上的英国"，该国拒绝引入欧元作为货币，并且，在欧盟的政治方面，英国和瑞典在90%的问题上都持相同意见。因此，英国脱欧可能会给瑞典带来极大的担忧。

Most Swedes still have a positive impression of the E.U. However, this could potentially change if Britain voted "out." In that case, one of the central questions would be whether E.U. leaders will try to strengthen cohesion by deepening cooperation and focusing on core members, or whether they will loosen the union to allow national governments to have a bigger say.

大部分瑞典人对欧盟仍持积极的态度，然而，这可能会因英国的"退欧"而发生改变。在这种情况下，一个关键问题将是，欧盟领导人是否会尝试通过深化合作、聚焦核心成员，以增强凝聚力，又或者他们会放松政策，让各国政府有更大的发言权。

Denmark

丹麦

Denmark held a referendum last December, although with a much more limited impact: Danes decided against handing over more powers to the E.U. That alone is not enough to predict whether Danes would really want to vote "out": In fact, most citizens of E.U. member states think that Brussels should not become more powerful than it is, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey.

去年12月，丹麦曾举行全民公投，然而影响力很有限：丹麦决定不移交更多的权力给欧盟。仅此一点不足以预测丹麦是否真正想"脱欧"。事实上，根据皮尤研究中心最近的一项调查显示，欧盟成员国大多数公民都认为，欧盟不应该比现在权利更大。

As in Sweden's case, two arguments would be particularly likely to influence voter behavior. First, many Danes fear that more immigration or an influx of refugees could threaten the small nation's welfare system. Second, Denmark has so far relied on Britain as a strong ally in negotiations with the E.U. as both countries have had similar policy stances. "Without Britain, Denmark won't have the locomotive to tow Danish interests," political scientist Marlene Wind of the University of Copenhagen was quoted as saying by Bloomberg News

现在，和瑞典的情况差不多，可能导致丹麦进行公投的因素有两个：一是许多丹麦人担心更多的移民或难民的涌入可能会威胁该国的福利系统；二是至今为止，在与欧盟协商方面，丹麦过于依赖英国，把英国当成强大的盟友，因为两国有相似的政治立场。彭博社援引哥本哈根大学的政治学家玛琳·温德的话称，"英国既已退出，在关乎本国的利益时，丹麦就失去了掌舵人。"

Greece

希腊

The Greek government's debt crisis has mostly disappeared from the public debate and the headlines -- but it will return sooner rather than later.

希腊政府的债务危机终于从公众讨论和各大头条消失了--但早晚有一天，它还会卷土重来的。

Greek newspaper Kathimerini fears that this ongoing crisis combined with a Brexit could ultimately become a threat to Greece's E.U. membership status.

希腊《每日新闻报》表示，希腊的债务危机和英国退欧最终将威胁其欧盟成员国的地位。

"Athens's main concern should be that a victory for Leave will weaken the eurozone's resolve to bolster Greece's position within the single currency, which could require more tools and a greater level of integration than currently exists," the paper argued.

该新闻报道称，"希腊的主要担心是，英国退欧会削弱欧元区支持希腊地位的决心，希腊使用单一货币，需要更多工具和比当前更高程度上的一体化。"

Hence, what Greece fears most is not an anti-E.U. referendum influenced by right-wing parties, but rather the E.U. pushing Greece out in order to save cohesion among the remaining members.

因此，希腊最担心的不是受右翼政党影响呼吁反欧盟公投，而是欧盟为了增强其他成员国的凝聚力而将希腊移出欧盟。

The Netherlands

荷兰

Dutch newspaper Algemeen Dagblad had a clear message for the British ahead of referendum. "Don't leave me this way," a cover story's headline read. But this may not reflect how most Dutch think about the E.U.

荷兰《每日汇报》此前曾针对英国的公投发出了明确的信号，它的一个封面新闻的标题写道："不要这样丢下我"。不过这还不能完全反映荷兰人对欧盟的看法。

Geert Wilders, the head of a right-wing populist party, has supported a Brexit and hopes for a similar referendum to take place in the Netherlands. "If we want to survive as a nation, we have to stop immigration and stop Islamization," Wilders told the BBC in a recent interview. "We cannot do that inside the European Union".

荷兰右翼自由党主席吉尔特·威尔德斯曾表示支持英国脱欧，并希望荷兰也举行类似的全民公投。他最近在接受BBC的采访时表示："如果我们想作为一个民族生存下去，我们就必须阻止移民和伊斯兰化。而我们在欧盟内，无法做到这些。"

Hungary

匈牙利

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is not known to be a particular friend of the E.U., either. In fact, he has gained quite the opposite reputation. Last May, European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker greeted Orban, saying, "Hello, dictator," while TV cameras were recording the awkward incident.

匈牙利总理维克托·奥尔班也一直因为与欧盟关系不友好而闻名，事实上，他最近还得到了相反的名声。去年5月，欧盟委员会主席让-克劳德容克欢迎奥尔班总理时说，"你好，独裁者"，摄像机记录下了这尴尬的一幕。

Despite disagreements, Orban recently urged Britain to remain part of the E.U. -- but he did so most likely because E.U.-skeptical Britain is an important partner for the Budapest-based government. In Hungary, it might not be a clear-cut "in or out" referendum about E.U. membership that could cause trouble but rather a referendum that is designed to indirectly question Brussels's authority.

尽管有分歧，奥尔班最近还是敦促英国留在欧盟，不过他这样做主要还是由于，对欧盟持怀疑态度的英国是匈牙利政府的重要合作伙伴。在匈牙利，可能不会出现将带来麻烦的、明确是"保留还是退出"的全民公投，但会出现用来间接挑战欧盟权威的公投。

France

法国

The French are some of the biggest E.U. skeptics: 61 percent have an unfavorable view of the union. Besides Germany, France is continental Europe's driving force. But it also faces a multitude of problems, including a weak economy and a high terrorism threat. Some of the origins of these problems have been blamed on the E.U. or conditions created by its member states.

法国是欧盟最大的怀疑论者之一，有61%的人不支持欧盟。法国同德国一样，也是欧洲大陆的驱动力。但它也面临着许多问题，包括疲软的经济、恐怖主义的威胁等。法国将很多问题的根源都归咎于欧盟或其成员国。