驻英国大使刘晓明在英国剑桥大学的演讲
成功的道路，全面的发展
——驻英国大使刘晓明在英国剑桥大学的演讲
英国剑桥大学嘉治商学院
2011年2月22日
The Road to Success and Comprehensive Development
--Speech by H.E. Ambassador Liu Xiaoming at the University of Cambridge
Judge Business School, University of Cambridge
22 February 2011
尊敬的剑桥大学校长博里塞维奇爵士，
老师们，
同学们：
Vice Chancellor Sir Leszek Borysiewicz,
Faculty members,
Students,
很高兴应博里塞维奇校长的邀请访问剑桥大学并作演讲。
It is my great pleasure and privilege to visit Cambridge at the invitation of the Vice Chancellor and to speak at the Judge Business School.
这是我出使英国后第一次来到剑桥，但我对剑桥丝毫没有陌生感。
This is my first visit to Cambridge as Chinese Ambassador to the UK. Yet Cambridge is no stranger to me.
虽然我到英国后先去了牛津，但我知道“牛津出首相、剑桥出诺贝尔奖”这句佳话，知道剑桥大学校友获得了88个诺贝尔奖，相当于英国所获诺奖的总和，在世界所有大学中保持最高纪录。
I heard a saying: "If you want to meet prime ministers, go to Oxford; but for Nobel Prize winners, go to Cambridge". Cambridge alumni won 88 Nobel Prizes, as many as the prizes won by Britain as a country, ranking first in all the universities around the world.
我最早相识剑桥，是因为徐志摩先生在这里留下了《再别康桥》这样的千古绝唱，也是因为李约瑟博士在这里写就了鸿篇巨著《中国科学技术史》。
I first got to know Cambridge from Chinese poet Xu Zhimo who wrote his best-known poem Farewell to Cambridge, and later from Dr Joseph Needham who wrote and edited the epic series Science and Civilisation in China.
我第一次走进“剑桥”，是29年前我在美国塔夫茨大学弗莱彻学院读书的时候。当时弗莱彻学院由塔夫茨大学和哈佛大学共同管理，两院校图书馆使用统一索引，我经常去位于“剑桥”的哈佛大学图书馆查阅资料。
My first visit to a place called Cambridge was 29 years ago when I was a student at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, which was then jointly administered by Tufts and Harvard. As Fletcher and Harvard shared the same library call number, I went to the Harvard Cambridge Library quite often.
今天，我走进“正宗”的剑桥，这既是一次工作性质的访问，推动剑桥大学与中国的教育合作，也是一次个人的精神寻旅，品味剑桥800年的文化积淀。当然，我也愿就大家关心的中国话题，与你们交流讨论。
Today I have finally come to the real Cambridge, both on a personal journey to fulfil a long-cherished dream of seeing Cambridge and experiencing its 800-year heritage and on an official visit to discuss educational cooperation and to talk about China.
上周，根据中日两国的最新GDP统计数字，中国正式超过日本成为了世界第二大经济体。世界上各大媒体都将此作为热点新闻进行报道。世界再次聚焦中国，围绕中国问题的讨论一直方兴未艾，现在再次升温。我总结了一下人们热议的几个问题：一是中国成为世界第二说明了什么？二是中国是否很快会成为世界第一？三是中国能否持续高速发展？四是中国发展对世界意味什么？今天，我想就这些问题谈谈我的看法。
Last week one of the headline news was that China has officially overtaken Japan as the world's second largest economy. This has put China in the limelight once again and stoked an ongoing discussion about China. Many questions were asked: What does China being the second largest economy tell us? How soon is China going to be number one? Will China be able to sustain such rapid growth? What does China's development mean to the world? The list can go on and on. But these are the most asked questions. Let me share my thoughts about these questions.
首先，中国成为世界第二大经济体说明什么？我认为，它说明了中国发展道路的成功。
First question: What does it tell us that China rolls in at number two? I think it tells the successful story of China's development.
中国为什么会取得如此成功？中国成功的经验是什么？中国成功靠走适合自己国情的道路。一个十三亿人口的大国，一个有五千年文明历史的古国，该走什么样的道路才能发展，教科书上没有现成的答案，历史上也没有可以参考的先例。但中国人“摸着石头过河”，牢牢把握自己的国情，不断探索实践，开拓创新，借鉴吸取世界各国有益经验，实现了天翻地覆的变化。
The secret of China's success is simple and open. That is China has found a development model well suited to its national conditions. How should we go about developing a country with 1.3 billion People and a history of 5 thousand years? Neither textbooks nor history has given us the ready answer. As Mr Deng Xiaoping termed it, we managed to "cross the river by feeling for the stones". We explored our way forward in a pioneering spirit by combining the useful experiences of other countries with the unique circumstances of China.
中国成功靠“改革开放”。开放，不仅是经济上的对外开放，从封闭半封闭到全方位、多层次、宽领域对外开放，更是思想头脑的解放，社会的自由宽松，政府的公开透明。改革，不仅是改革经济制度，将高度集中的计划经济体制改革为充满生机和活力的社会主义市场经济体制，也是政治、社会、文化的全面改革和建设。
China's success also lies in its commitment to reform and opening-up. Opening-up means embracing the global economy at every level and in every area. But it is much more than that. It also means freeing your mind, fostering a more open and diverse society. It means nurturing a culture of open and transparent government. Reform is about transforming the planned economy to a vibrant socialist market economy. It is also about making comprehensive progress in political, social and cultural spheres.
西方有些人认为，中国只搞经济改革，不搞政治改革。这是对中国全面改革的一种误解。事实上，30多年来，中国的经济体制改革每推进一步，政治体制改革也深化一步。人民代表大会制度、中国共产党领导的多党合作和政治协商制度，在中国政治生活中的地位和作用越来越大。30多年来，中国民主法制建设不断加强，坚持依法治国，几千年形成的人治社会正在向法治社会转变。30多年来，中国人权事业有了大发展，我们将尊重和保障人权写入了宪法，依法保障全体社会成员平等参与、平等发展的权利，同时加强国际人权合作。
Some people in the West believe China has carried out reform only in economic sector, not in political system. This is a misunderstanding of China's comprehensive reform. During the past 3 decades, political reform has come with economic reform every step of the way, and political progress has been achieved hand in hand with economic growth. We have seen a growing role of the National People's Congress and multi-party political consultation under the leadership of the Communist Party. Democratic decision making and the legal system has been strengthened. The millennium-old pattern of "rule by man" is giving way to the rule of law. We have also seen significant progress in human rights. The promotion and protection of human rights has been written into the Chinese Constitution. All citizens enjoy the rights protected by law to equal participation and development. We have also strengthened international cooperation on human rights.
历史上，中国并非没有尝试过西方式的民主，但都并未给中国带来繁荣和富强。今天，我们找到了一条适合自己发展的道路，建立了有中国特色的民主制度，我们有什么理由动摇？有什么理由折腾？
It was not for lack of trying that Western-style democracy did not bring China the prosperity and strength it had wanted so badly in its modern history. Now that we have found our own road to success and Chinese style democracy, why should we waver or give it up?
第二个问题，中国是否已在坐二望一，很快超过美国？回答这个问题前，我们不妨看以下几对关键词：
Second question, how soon is China going to overtake the US? Before we answer this question, let's look at some key words:
一是“总量”和“人均”。尽管中国经济总量成了世界第二，去年达到5.8万亿美元，但人均GDP只有4300美元，仍排在世界百位左右，离中等发达国家相距甚远，仅占英国的1/9，美国的1/10。
"Aggregates" and "per capita". China's economic aggregates stood at 5.8 trillion US dollars in 2010, ranking second in the world. But its per capita GDP was merely 4,300 US dollars, lower than about 100 other countries, only one ninth of the UK, and one tenth of the US.
二是“沿海”与“内地”及“城市”与“农村”。中国的沿海很发达，城市很繁荣，但是中国西部经济仍很落后，而且中国的城镇化率仅有46%，城乡居民收入比高达3.23：1。我曾在中国最贫困的省份之一甘肃担任两年省长助理，对此深有感受。甘肃地处大西北，自然条件恶劣，沙漠化对当地人民的生存构成了严峻挑战，经济发展困难很大。许多农村的孩子们没有电脑，更从来没有上过互联网。很多孩子在完成国家9年义务阶段教育后，由于经济原因不得不中止学业。"Coastal" and "inland", "urban" and "rural". We have in China both rich cities in the coastal regions and under developed poor regions in the west of the country. The urbanisation rate is only 46%, and the urban/rural income ratio is as high as 3.23 to 1. I served for two years as Assistant Governor in one of the poorest provinces in northwest China – Gansu. Gansu suffers from tough natural conditions. Desertification threatens the livelihood of the local people and economic development is a huge challenge. Many of the children in the countryside do not have access to computers or the internet. Many boys and girls have to drop out of school because their families cannot afford their continued education.
三是“制造”与“创造”。中国是制造业大国，但很多产品只有加工、封装等劳动力密集型环节在中国完成，研发设计、关键部件和市场营销都在国外，中国处在国际产业链的末端。中国出口商品中90%是贴牌生产，每部手机售价的20%、计算机售价的30%、数控机床售价的20%到40%，都要支付给国外专利持有者。从“中国制造”到“中国创造”还有很长的路要走。
"Made in China" and "created in China". For all its manufacturing strength, China is still at the lower end of the value chain. In many cases only the labour-intensive parts of production such as processing and packaging are done in China. R&D, design, key components and marketing are done elsewhere. 90% of China's export commodities are OEM products. 20% of the retail value of every mobile phone, 30% that of computers and 20-40% that of Computer Numerical Control machine tools go to foreign patent owners. There is still a long way to go from "Made in China" to "created in China".
四是“粗放”与“集约”。有数据显示，中国单位GDP的能耗是国际水平的三至四倍，是英国的八倍。中国消耗了全球46％的钢铁、16％的能源、52％的水泥，但仅创造了全球8％左右的GDP。中国经济发展效率还有待大幅提升，需要从“粗放型”向“集约型”发展。
"Energy-intensive" and "energy-efficient". Statistics show that China's energy intensity is 3 to 4 times that of the international average and 8 times that of the UK. China consumes 46% of the world's iron and steel, 16% of energy, 52% of cement, and only produces 8% of the world's GDP. China still has a lot to do to raise the quality and efficiency of its economic growth.
因此，中国经济总量虽然已居世界第二，但人均水平和GDP质量还远没有达到发达国家的水平。我们不是“谦虚”，也不是“虚伪”，更不是想逃避“责任”，而是中国仍然是一个不折不扣的发展中国家。集中精力搞建设，一心一意谋发展，是我们长期的优先任务。我们不追求“虚名”，要的是实实在在的国强和民富。
Although China is now number 2 economy in the world, we still lag far behind developed countries in per capita income and quality of GDP. China is still a developing country, not because we are modest or hypocritical, or we wish to escape from our responsibilities. Development will remain a top priority for China for a long time to come.
第三个问题，中国已经高速行进了30多年，今后还能持续快速发展吗？
Third question: Can China sustain its fast growth after 3 decades?
回答是肯定的。中国还处在工业化中期阶段和城镇化加速上升阶段，中国仍需要大量的基础设施投资，需要在未来20年安置3亿多人口从农村迁移到城市，需要满足人民消费结构从温饱向小康升级换代的需求，需要实现西部地区向东部地区的发展水平看齐，因此中国经济并不缺乏动力，仍有很大的发展空间，我们有充分理由保持乐观。
The answer is positve. China is still in the course of rapid industrialisation and urbanisation. This is a phase when massive infrastructure investment is needed. 300 million people are expected to move from the countryside to the cities in the next 20 years. The Chinese people need to upgrade their consumption pattern, and the western regions need to catch up with their eastern counterparts. So driving force is never lacking for the Chinese economy, and there is plenty of potential to be tapped. We have reasons to be optimistic about the future.
中国去年底制定了“十二五”规划，即将在下月交由全国人民代表大会审议，这将是未来5年中国发展的重要蓝图。
The National People's Congress will review China's 12th Five-Year Plan at its annual session next month. This is an important blueprint for China's development in the next 5 years.
我们要对中国经济结构进行战略性调整。我们将努力扩大内需，促进经济增长向依靠消费、投资、出口协调拉动转变。我们将加强农业，提升制造业核心竞争力，发展战略性新兴产业，加快发展服务业，促进经济增长向依靠第一、第二、第三产业协同带动转变。我们将统筹城乡发展，促进区域良性互动、协调发展。
We will carry out strategic economic restructuring to expand domestic demand and promote balanced growth driven by consumption, investment and exports. We will strengthen agriculture, increase the competitiveness of manufacturing, and give priority to emerging industries and the services sector. The aim is to seek a balanced and coordinated development between urban and rural areas and between east and west.
我们要积极推进科技进步和创新，加快建设创新型国家。正如邓小平先生曾经指出的，科技是第一生产力。中国今后的发展必须向主要依靠科技进步、劳动者素质提高、管理创新转变。
We will promote scientific and technological progress and innovation. We will speed up efforts to turn China into an innovation-driven country. As Mr Deng Xiaoping pointed out, "There is no other productive force more important than science and technology". Our future development must rely on scientific and technological progress, a higher quality labour force and innovative management.
我们要更好地保障和改善民生。发展经济，归根结底是为了人民的幸福。我们将完善保障和改善民生的制度安排，把促进就业放在优先位置，推进基本公共服务均等化，加大收入分配调节力度，使发展成果惠及全体人民。
We will continue to improve the lives of our people. Economic development is aimed at serving people's interests. We will improve social security, increase job creation, promote equal access to public services and balance income distribution. This will ensure that the benefits of development will be shared by all.
我们要建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会。中国人均GDP要向西方国家看齐，但人均能源消费绝不能赶超发达国家，因为我们生活的地球实在承受不起。我们不能走西方国家工业化的老路。我们要节约能源，降低温室气体排放强度，发展循环经济，推广低碳技术，积极应对气候变化，促进经济社会发展与人口资源环境相协调，走可持续发展之路。
We will build an energy-efficient and environment-friendly society. We need to catch up with developed countries in terms of per capita GDP, but not per capita energy consumption, as this would be unsustainable for our planet. China cannot follow the traditional Western way of industrialisation. We must raise energy efficiency, reduce emission intensity, develop a circular economy, extensively apply low-carbon technologies and actively address climate change. We must promote sustainable development, achieving an appropriate balance between economic, social progress and population, resources and the environment.
第四个问题，中国发展了，对世界意味着什么？是福还是祸？是机遇还是威胁？我们不妨看三点：
The fourth and last question: What does China's development mean to the world, a blessing or catastrophe, opportunities or threats? This question can be answered in 3 aspects:
一是中国给世界和平带来威胁了吗？中国奉行独立自主的和平外交政策，庄严地向世界承诺永远不称霸，永远不搞扩张；主张不干涉别国内部事务和谈判解决国际争端；倡导互信、互利、平等、协作的新安全观。中国是联合国安理会常任理事国中派出维和人员最多的国家，累计参与24项联合国维和行动，派出上万名维和人员；中国向索马里海域派出护航舰队，与多国舰队一道打击海盗，维护国际水域的安全；中国大力倡导朝核问题六方会谈，努力维护半岛和地区的和平稳定。无论从中国的外交思想，还是外交行动来看，中国都是世界和平的维护者、稳定的促进者。
Is China a threat to world peace? China follows an independent foreign policy of peace. We solemnly pledged to the world that hegemony or expansion is never an option for China; China stands for non-interference in others' internal affairs and negotiated solutions to international disputes. China believes that security should be based on mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality and coordination. China is the largest contributor of peacekeepers amongst the UN Permanent 5, having sent 10 thousand peacekeepers on 24 UN missions. It has sent escort ships to the waters off the Somali coast and worked with the navies of other countries to combat piracy and improve safety in international waters. It has actively worked to facilitate the Six-Party Talks to uphold peace and the stability of the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia. China is in every way an upholder of peace and a facilitator of stability.
二是中国给世界经济带来威胁了吗？金融危机以来，中国为全球经济增长提供了重要支撑。2010年发达国家经济仍步履维艰，在全球有效需求不足的情况下，中国扮演着向全球输出总需求的重要角色。欧盟去年对华出口增长31.9%，英国则增长42%。去年中国经济继续保持两位数增长，对世界经济增长贡献率达到20%。今后10年，中国将继续奉行互利共赢的开放战略，市场对外开放程度将进一步提高，在国际贸易中的比重会不断上升，从国际市场的进口仍会迅速增加。这些对世界各国来说，只会是巨大的发展机遇。
Is China a threat to the world economy? China has been a crucial support for global growth since the start of the financial crisis. It drove global demand at a time when developed countries were in economic difficulties. This was reflected in the 31.9% increase of EU exports and the 42% increase of UK exports to China last year. China maintained a double-digit growth last year, and contributed 20% of global economic growth. China will continue to pursue a strategy of win-win opening-up over the next decade. Its market will open wider, its share in international trade will increase, and its imports will rise. These will no doubt create enormous opportunities for countries around the world.
三是中国对现行国际体系构成威胁了吗？中国作为一个负责任的大国，是国际体系的参与者、建设者和贡献者。我们与发达国家和新兴经济体就促进世界经济金融治理广泛开展合作，共同倡导加强G20机制；我们加强与发展中国家的传统友谊，帮助经济开发和实现减贫，过去两年里中国向其他发展中国家的贷款已经超过了世界银行；我们支持、倡导并践行多边主义，推动国际关系民主化，积极参与区域合作进程，努力促进国际体系更加有效地应对气候变化、能源和资源、粮食安全、恐怖主义等全球性挑战。
Is China a threat to the international system? China has been participating in and contributing to the current international system as a responsible major player. It has entered into extensive cooperation with its partners in developed and emerging economies on the reform of global economic and financial governance, and jointly advocated a greater role of the G20. It has strengthened traditional friendships with other developing countries and helped them develop their economies and reduce poverty. The loans it has provided to other developing countries in the past two years have surpassed those of the World Bank. It supports and practices multilateralism, and stands for greater democracy in international relations. This can be seen by its active participation in regional cooperation, along with the support it gives to tackling global challenges such as climate change, energy, resources, food security and terrorism.
总之，中国的发展对世界是福不是祸，是机遇不是威胁。世界对中国不应感到担忧，更不应感到恐惧。美国前总统弗兰克林·罗斯福说的好：“我们唯一恐惧的就是恐惧本身。”
China's development is a blessing, not a catastrophe to the world. It means opportunities, not threats. It is not to be worried about, still less feared. As Franklin Roosevelt put it, "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself".
老师们、同学们，
Faculty members and students,
800多年来，剑桥大学秉承“此地乃启蒙之所和智慧之源”（拉丁语：Hinc lucem et pocula sacra）的校训，努力探索世界，不断追求真理。半个多世纪前，李约瑟博士以其睿智打开了中国古代科技的历史宝库，重拾了伟大的中华文明。今天，当你们放眼中国，你们会发现中国正在走一条前人没有走过的道路，中国的实践可能超出了以往人们的知识积累。面对今天的中国这一丰富的宝藏，我衷心地期望剑桥大学的学子们遵循你们的校训，不断探索，大力挖掘，成为英国乃至世界范围内研究当代中国的领军者。
Over the past 8 centuries, the University of Cambridge has stayed true to its motto "From here, light and sacred draughts" (Hinc lucem et pocula sacra) in its tireless pursuit of the world's truth and knowledge. More than half a century ago, Dr Joseph Needham uncovered the treasures of China's ancient science and civilisation. Today when you look at China, you will realise that it is embarking on a journey no country has ever made. This goes beyond the knowledge of human beings and offers enormous opportunities. I therefore encourage you to follow Cambridge's motto to renew your efforts in tapping the rich resources China has to offer and lead the UK and the world in studying and understanding today's China.
谢谢。下面我愿回答大家的提问。
Thank you and now I would like to take questions from you.
