印尼原矿出口禁令 简介推高全球镍价

Nickel made further gains yesterday as market participants continued to assess the impact of Indonesia’s ban on exports of unprocessed mineral ore.

随着市场参与者继续评估印尼原矿石出口禁令的影响，镍价昨日进一步上涨。

Nickel for delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 1.3 per cent to $14,400 a tonne, extending gains since the start of the year to more than 7 per cent.

伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期镍价上涨高达1.3%，达到每吨1.44万美元，比今年年初高出逾7%。

Indonesia is the world’s biggest exporter of nickel and the leading supplier to China. Its high grade laterite nickel is used by Chinese mills to produce nickel pig iron, a cheaper alternative for making stainless steel.

印尼是世界第一大镍出口国，也是中国的主要供应国。印尼的高品位红土镍矿被中国的冶炼厂用于生产含镍生铁，一种制造不锈钢的廉价替代性原料。

Some analysts have played down the significance of the ban as China has been stockpiling ore. Chinese buyers are estimated to have purchased about 32m tonnes of ore – equivalent to a year’s production.

一些分析师表示上述禁令并不重要，因为中国一直在囤积矿石。据估计，中国的买家购买了约3200万吨矿石，相当于一年的生产所需。

But, according to Macquarie, the Chinese stocks are partly held by traders who are likely to mark up the price of the ore, which could have a positive knock-on effect for the refined nickel market.

但麦格理(Macquarie)认为，中国的矿石库存部分在贸易商手中，他们可能会趁机提价，这可能对精炼镍市场产生积极连带影响。

“We would not rule out a potential 50 per cent increase in prices, which would lift the break-even for [rotary kiln – electric furnace] nickel pig iron from $12,000 to $15,000,” the bank said in a report. “Given this supply source is required for the market, refined nickel prices would have to rise in order to pass this through.”

麦格理在一份报告中说：“我们将不会排除价格上涨50%的可能性，这可能会使（无论是热炉冶炼法还是电路冶炼法生产的）含镍生铁的损益平衡价格从每吨1.2万美元涨至1.5万美元。鉴于这一供应源是市场所必需的，精炼镍价格必然会上涨，以便转嫁原料价格的上涨。”

Other base metals were also in demand yesterday. Lead for three month delivery on the LME rose 0.5 per cent to $2,187.50 a tonne, while zinc added 0.1 per cent to $2,071 a tonne.

其他一些贱金属昨日也受到追捧。伦敦金属交易所三个月期铅价上涨0.5%，至每吨2187.50美元，而锌价上涨0.1%，至每吨2071美元。

The exceptions were copper and aluminium, which fell 0.45 per cent to $7,290 a tonne and 0.9 per cent to $1,762.50 a tonne respectively. A range of exemptions mean copper is unlikely to be significantly affected by the Indonesia export ban, although that view is starting to be challenged by traders.

仅有的例外是铜和铝，这两种金属的价格分别下跌0.45%（至每吨7290美元）和0.9%（至每吨1762.50美元）。一系列豁免条款意味着印尼原矿出口禁令对铜的影响不太可能显著，尽管这一观点已开始受到贸易商的挑战。

While most producers will be able to export copper concentrate until 2017 they will be subject to escalating taxes that are yet to be clarified, but which could reach 60 per cent in two years.

尽管大多数生产商在2017年底前可以继续出口铜精矿，但它们将面临不断增加的税率——具体细节尚未得到澄清，但税率有可能在两年后达到60%。

Assuming the rumoured figures are true, margins at the country’s two biggest copper mines, Grasberg and Batu Hijau, will suffer. This could result in output being cut until downstream facilities – smelters – are completed, say traders. Indonesia accounts for about 3 per cent of global nickel supply, suggests Goldman Sachs.

假设传言中的上述数字属实，那么印尼最大的两座铜矿格拉斯伯格(Grasberg)和Batu Hijau的利润率将受到打击。贸易商表示，在下游设施（冶炼炉）建成投产之前，这可能导致产出下降。高盛(Goldman Sachs)表示，印尼占全球镍供应的大约3%。