今年世界贸易增长将严重放缓 World trade heads for weakest year since

World trade is on track to grow at its slowest rate since the aftermath of the financial crisis, according to researchers, underlining the fragility of the global economic recovery.

研究人员称，今年世界贸易增长将放缓至金融危机后最慢速度，突显全球经济复苏的脆弱性。

After contracting in the first six months of this year the volume of global merchandise trade grew 0.7 per cent in the three months to the end of September compared with the same quarter last year, according to figures compiled by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, keeper of the monthly World Trade Monitor.

每月发布《世界贸易监测》(World Trade Monitor)的荷兰经济政策研究局(Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)数据显示，在今年前六个月出现萎缩后，全球商品贸易量在截至9月底的三个月里同比增长0.7%。

The low figure highlights a perplexing issue for economists: after decades of expansion at twice the rate of the global economy, world trade has slowed in recent years, leading some to proclaim the end of an era of “hyperglobalisation” fed by the rise of China and other emerging economies.

这个偏低的数字凸显了一个令经济学家们困惑的问题：在连续几十年以两倍于全球经济的增速增长后，世界贸易在近几年放缓，这促使一些人宣告，曾经由中国和其他新兴经济体崛起助推的“超级全球化”时代已经告终。

Analysts at Capital Economics said the “frail” trade figures were largely the result of the “continued lacklustre performance of emerging economies”.

凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的分析师们表示，“虚弱的”贸易数据主要是“新兴经济体继续表现平平”的结果。

“However, we don’t think this is an early sign of a widespread downturn in the global economy,” they wrote in a note to clients.

“不过，我们并不认为这是全球经济普遍低迷的早期迹象，”他们在一份发给客户的简报中写道。

The global pattern of trade had also been depressed by currency movements, they said. While a weak euro had helped eurozone exports rise steadily in volume terms, the strong dollar continued to hinder US exports. That was a pattern, the Capital Economics analysts said, that was likely to continue.

他们表示，全球贸易格局也受到汇率走势的压抑。在欧元疲软有助于欧元区出口量稳步上升的同时，美元的强势继续阻碍美国出口。凯投宏观的分析师们表示，这种格局很可能会持续一段时期。

This year, the World Trade Organisation expects trade growth of 2.8 per cent versus the International Monetary Fund’s expected 3.1 per cent growth in the global economy.

今年，世界贸易组织(WTO)预计全球贸易增长2.8%，而国际货币基金组织(IMF)预计全球经济增长3.1%。

However, the latest data, released on Tuesday, point to an even grimmer year than the one forecast by the WTO. If the trend in the first nine months of this year continues, 2015 would be by far the worst year for trade since a collapse in trading volumes during 2009 as the global economy ground to a halt in the wake of the financial crisis.

然而，周二公布的最新数据所描绘的今年形势比WTO的预测更加严峻。如果今年前九个月的趋势持续下去，对世界贸易而言，2015年将是自2009年（那年全球经济在遭遇金融危机后陷于停顿，贸易量暴跌）以来最糟糕的年份，并且比其他年份都糟糕许多。

The signs for the final quarter are worrying.

预示最后一个季度情况的种种迹象令人担忧。

The US Department of Commerce has said that the value of both exports and imports into the world’s biggest consumer economy were down in October from the same month in 2014, following what has been a grim pattern for the year so far.

美国商务部(Department of Commerce)已表示，作为全球最大消费者经济的美国今年10月出口和进口总值同比双双下降，延续今年以来的严峻形势。

This month, Chinese authorities said exports from the world’s biggest trading economy were down 6.9 per cent in October from a year earlier while imports fell 18.8 per cent.

中国政府本月表示，作为全球最大贸易经济体的中国10月以美元计出口同比下降6.9%，而进口下降18.8%。

China’s example shows how the slowdown in trade this year has caught many governments by surprise. The ruling Communist party set a target of 6 per cent growth in trade for 2015 at the beginning of this year. But the country’s total trade has now fallen just over 8 per cent in the first 10 months of 2015 compared with the same period a year earlier.

中国的例子表明，今年贸易放缓让许多国家的政府措手不及。执政的共产党在今年初设定了2015年贸易增长6%的目标。但中国在2015年前十个月的贸易总值同比下降8%多一点。

Some economists remain bullish about the road ahead, particularly over the longer term.

一些经济学家仍看好未来，尤其是在较长期的未来。

In a report released on Tuesday, HSBC and Oxford Economics said they expected the value of global exports to quadruple to $68.5tn by 2050 thanks to the world entering what they called a “third phase of globalisation”.

汇丰(HSBC)和牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)在周二公布的一份报告中表示，他们预计，得益于世界进入他们所称的“全球化第三阶段”，全球出口总值到2050年将翻两番，达到68.5万亿美元。