经合组织下调全球增长预期 OECD cuts global growth forecasts as shifts in China hit trade

A dramatic slowdown in world trade, prompted by shifts in China and other emerging markets, risks weighing down the global recovery, the OECD has said.

经合组织(OECD)表示，中国和其他新兴市场所发生的转变导致世界贸易大幅放缓，有可能拖累全球经济复苏。

The Paris-based group of mainly developed economies cut its growth forecasts, predicting the world economy will expand by 2.9 per cent this year and by 3.3 per cent in 2016. This compares with earlier projections of 3 per cent and 3.6 per cent respectively.

总部位于巴黎、以发达经济体为主的该集团下调了经济增长预测，预计世界经济将在今年扩张2.9%，2016年扩大3.3%。相比之下，此前的预测分别是3%和3.6%。

The downward revisions, in the OECD’s twice-yearly Economic Outlook, come only weeks after the International Monetary Fund said the world economy would grow at the slowest pace since the crisis.

OECD在其每年两期的《经济展望》(Economic Outlook)中做出上述下调。就在几周前，国际货币基金组织(IMF)表示，世界经济将以自危机以来最慢的速度增长。

Fears over the state of the Chinese economy have jolted markets since the summer, prompting the Bank of England to delay a much-anticipated rise in interest rates. The US Federal Reserve has also held off increasing borrowing costs for the first time since the crisis but is expected to do so next month.

自夏季以来，对中国经济状况的担忧影响了市场走势，促使英国央行(Bank of England)推迟采取各方预期已久的加息。美联储(Federal Reserve)也推迟了危机爆发以来的首次加息，但预计将在下月采取加息行动。

“Global growth prospects have clouded this year,” the OECD said.

“全球经济增长前景今年被阴云笼罩，”经合组织表示。

It added that many countries might need to reassess monetary and fiscal policy because of increasing signs that underlying growth would not be as strong as expected. In particular, the OECD emphasised the “dramatic slowdown in global trade growth”, which is expected to be only 2 per cent this year, compared with 3.4 per cent in 2014 and far more in the early years of the decade.

该集团补充称，许多国家可能需要重新评估货币和财政政策，因为有越来越多的迹象表明，潜在的增长不会像预期的那么强劲。尤其是，经合组织强调了“全球贸易增长的显著放缓，”预计今年全球贸易增幅只有2%，而2014年达到3.4%，本十年最初几年的增幅还要高得多。

Trade has generally increased at such meagre rates only when growth has also disappointed.

通常而言，只有在经济增长也令人失望的情况下，贸易增长率才会这么低。

“World trade has been a bellwether for global output,” said Catherine Mann, OECD chief economist. “The growth rates of global trade observed so far in 2015 have, in the past, been associated with global recession.”

“世界贸易一直是全球产出的风向标，”经合组织首席经济学家凯瑟琳曼(Catherine Mann)表示。“2015年迄今观察到的全球贸易增速放在以往和全球经济衰退有关联。”

The lacklustre prospects for trade and output largely reflect continuing weaknesses in emerging markets, the OECD said. In particular, Beijing’s transition from a growth model based on investment spending towards one focused on consumption has led to a sharp fall in commodity prices and may be reducing China’s role in world trade.

经合组织表示，贸易和产出的低迷前景在很大程度上反映了新兴市场依然疲弱。特别是，中国正致力于转变增长模式，从基于投资支出的增长模式转向以消费为重点，这导致大宗商品价格大幅下滑，并可能减少中国在世界贸易中的作用。

The OECD noted that the decline in imports by volume to China accounted for around a third of the slowdown in non-OECD import growth between 2014 and 2015, damping foreign demand for other Asian economies.

经合组织指出，2014年至2015年非经合组织国家进口增长放缓约有三分之一是中国进口量下降引起的，抑制了海外对其它亚洲经济体的需求。

But the OECD still expects China to grow by 6.8 per cent in 2015, 0.1 percentage point faster than predicted two months ago. Growth will then slow to 6.5 per cent in 2016, unchanged from its earlier prediction.

但OECD仍预计中国经济将在2015年增长6.8%，比两个月前的预测高0.1个百分点。随后中国经济增长将在2016年放缓至6.5%，与此前的预测相同。

The Economic Outlook expects the euro area to grow by 1.5 per cent this year and 1.8 per cent in 2016, marginally lower than expected in September. Germany’s forecasts have been trimmed lower, while Italy is now expected to grow slightly faster. The US economy is forecast to expand by 2.5 per cent in 2016, slightly lower than the 2.6 per cent growth forecast in September.

《经济展望》预计欧元区今年将增长1.5%，2016年增长1.8%，略低于9月份的预测。德国的预测被微幅下调，而意大利的预测被小幅上调。美国经济预计将在2016年扩张2.5%，略低于9月预测的增长2.6%。

The OECD warns that the normalisation of monetary policy should proceed “cautiously”.

经合组织警告称，货币政策正常化应当“谨慎”推进。