中国官员透露经济对策 稳定币值增加开支

SHANGHAI — Chinese economic policy makers tugged back the curtain a bit on Thursday on their plans to stabilize the country’s economy and financial markets, even as shares plunged more than 6 percent late in the day.

上海——周四，中国负责制定经济政策的官员稍微透露了一些该国在稳定经济和金融市场方面的计划，而中国股市在当天晚些时候又暴跌了逾6%。

Speaking to leaders of the world’s biggest banks and institutional investors at a financial conference here, officials described how they would use government deficit spending to spur growth. A senior Chinese central banker also pledged to preserve the value of China’s currency, the renminbi, by firmly tying its value to a range of other currencies.

在上海举行的一次金融会议上，面对世界上最大的银行和机构投资者，中国官员讲述了他们将如何利用政府赤字开支来刺激增长。中国央行的一位高层领导也承诺，要保持人民币币值，方式是将人民币和一系列其他货币牢牢挂钩。

Timothy Adams, the chief executive and president of the Institute of International Finance, said Chinese policy makers realized they had made a serious mistake by staying silent as slowing growth, stumbles in the stock market and a fluctuating currency undermined the world’s perception of China’s economic stability. Their silence has been widely construed as either a reluctance to acknowledge difficulties or a lack of solutions.

国际金融研究所(Institute of International Finance)首席执行官兼所长蒂莫西·亚当斯(Timothy Adams)表示，中国决策者意识到他们犯了一个严重的错误——在经济增长放缓、股市下跌和货币价值波动损害了外界对中国经济稳定性的看法时，一直保持沉默。他们的沉默被普遍理解为，要么是不愿承认面临的困难，要么是缺乏解决之道。

“Either they communicate with the markets in a timely and intelligent fashion, or the markets are going to write their own story line,” said Mr. Adams, a former senior United States Treasury official.

“他们不用聪明的方式和市场进行及时的沟通，市场就会以自己的方式做出理解，”曾在美国财政部任高级官员的亚当斯说。

Finance ministers and central bank governors from around the world are flying into Shanghai for meetings this weekend. Global banking leaders are already here for the annual conference of the Institute of International Finance. So a large contingent of Chinese officials has come from Beijing to meet with them and discuss their policies.

世界各国的财政部长和央行行长正飞往上海，准备出席周末在这里举行的会议。全球银行业领袖已经来到上海，正在参加由国际金融研究所举行的一年一度的会议。所以一大批中国官员也从北京前来和他们会面，讨论他们的政策。

So far, the Chinese officials have acknowledged the challenges they face, but they contend that the world has overlooked the many policy options they can use to respond.

目前，中国官员已经承认自身面临诸多挑战，但他们辩称，外界也忽略了，他们有很多可以用以应对的政策选项。

The officials outlined how they hoped to shift the economy from its emphasis on manufacturing, exports and a sometimes manic pace of construction, toward services and consumer spending. And they described how they hoped to manage that transition without tripping up economic growth along the way.

这些官员勾画出，他们希望如何将经济发展的重点从制造、出口和不时狂飙突进的建设领域，向服务业和居民消费转变。他们还表示，希望在不影响经济增长的情况下实现这种转变。

Zhu Guangyao, a vice minister of finance, said Thursday morning that Prime Minister Li Keqiang would unveil a government budget early next month that would include economic stimulus through an increase in deficit spending, which was only 2.3 percent of economic output last year. “In 2016, certainly we will have to increase that ratio,” he said.

中国财政部副部长朱光耀周四上午表示，李克强总理将于下月初公布今年的政府预算，其中将包括通过增加赤字支出来刺激经济增长的计划。中国去年的赤字支出仅为经济产出的2.3%。“2016年，我们肯定得提高这个比例，”他说。

Although China’s corporations are heavily indebted, the Chinese central government is not.

尽管中国的企业大多负债累累，但中央政府并非如此。

In a subsequent speech to international bank leaders, Yi Gang, the first deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, provided the strongest commitment to date not to devalue the renminbi. He described a complex strategy based on anchoring the value of the renminbi to three baskets of currencies. The baskets are essentially weighted averages of how much the renminbi is worth in terms of dollars, euros, yen and other currencies.

随后，在对国际银行业领袖讲话时，中国人民银行副行长易纲做出了迄今为止有关人民币不再贬值的最强承诺。他描述了一项基于将人民币与三个货币篮子挂钩的复杂策略。这些篮子基本上相当于，人民币相对美元、欧元、日元和其他一些货币的加权平均。

Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the central bank, is scheduled to speak Friday morning and then hold a rare news conference immediately afterward.

央行行长周小川计划于周五上午发表讲话，紧接着他还会并不多见地举办一场新闻发布会。

He will have much to discuss: Money has been sluicing out of China this winter, as companies and individuals use their renminbi to buy dollars, fearing that the renminbi may decline further against the dollar. As officials spoke on Thursday, the Shanghai stock exchange on the other side of town was sliding steeply, ending with a loss of 6.4 percent — a particularly precipitous decline given that the market halts trading in any listing once it has fallen 10 percent.

他将有不少需要讨论的问题：随着企业和个人因担心人民币对美元进一步贬值而用人民币大量买入美元，这个冬天中国的资金一直在外流。周四，就在中国官员们讲话的同时，位于上海市另一端的上海证券交易所的指数剧烈下挫，最终以6.4%的跌幅收盘——考虑到任何一支股票价格下跌10%就会停止交易，6.4%更可算是暴跌。

Share prices slid on Thursday, not in response to the reassurances of Chinese officials but rather to a spike in short-term interest rates in Chinese money markets.

周四的股市下滑，并不是对中国官员的安抚言论做出的反应，而是受到中国金融市场短期利率上扬的刺激。

Despite huge outflows in recent months, it was not immediately clear that trying to slow them was the sole cause of the rise in interest rates. The Chinese central bank injects huge sums of cash into the economy in late January and early February each year in anticipation of heavy consumer spending during Chinese New Year, then tries to drain some of that extra money in late February. It is a tricky task every year, and especially when financial confidence is weak.

尽管最近几个月中国出现大幅资金外流，但并不能马上断定，遏制外流速度的努力是利率上升的唯一因素。每年的1月末和2月初，中国央行都会向经济领域注入巨额资金，以满足春节期间预计会出现的大量消费支出，然后在2月末的时候，再努力收回部分多余资金。每年这都是项棘手的任务，在金融领域信心低落的时候，尤其如此。

Even if Chinese officials do start unveiling further policy responses to economic weakness, it is unclear whether overseas investors will believe them. China has repeatedly promised measures to limit the rapid growth of corporate debt and to overhaul state-owned enterprises, notably at the Third Plenum, a policy-setting gathering in the autumn of 2013. But putting changes in effect has proved slow and difficult, as many could involve layoffs in single-company towns with few alternative employers, and could threaten the livelihoods of politically connected executives at troubled state-owned enterprises.

即使中国官员开始推出应对经济疲软的进一步政策，目前也不清楚海外投资者对他们是否有信心。中国一再承诺将采取措施，限制企业债的快速增长，并对国有企业进行全面改革，尤其是在2013年秋季召开制定政策的十八届三中全会的时候。但是事实证明，这些变化的贯彻既缓慢又艰难，因为它可能涉及到裁员，很多情况下一座城镇只有一家大企业，几乎没有其他雇主，而且在陷入困境的国有企业，这可能会威胁到那些有政治后台的高管的生计。

The Chinese central bank has been trying to inject additional cash into the economy to offset outflows and prevent interest rates from rising. Qu Hongbin, the chief economist for greater China at HSBC, said that not all of the money leaving China was harmful, however. He estimated that three-fifths of it consisted of Chinese companies paying overseas debts, which would become more expensive in renminbi terms if the currency weakens further.

中国央行一直试图将更多资金注入经济，以弥补资产外流，防止利率升高。但是，汇丰银行(HSBC)大中华区首席经济师曲宏斌表示，并非所有离开中国的资金都有害。他估计，其中有五分之三是中国企业用来偿还海外债务的，如果人民币进一步走弱，那么用人民币来计价，海外债务就会变得更高。

Mr. Yi, the deputy governor, sought to reassure bankers that China’s central bank would not tolerate another broad decline in the value of the renminbi. The bank devalued the renminbi 4 percent compared with the dollar last August, then pushed it down nearly 3 percent in late December and early January.

人民银行副行长易纲试图安抚银行业高管，表示中国央行不会容许人民币再次大幅贬值。去年8月，央行让人民币对美元汇率下跌了4%，在12月下旬和1月初，又再次推动下跌了近3%。

Mr. Yi said that China is anchoring its currency to three weighted averages of currencies: one that it calculates itself, one from the Bank of International Settlements and one from the International Monetary Fund. Paul Gruenwald, a former I.M.F. official who is now the Singapore-based Asia economist for Standard & Poor’s, said that because the dollar typically makes up a third of each of these baskets, the shift meant that the renminbi could conceivably vary three times as widely against the dollar.

易纲称，中国将用三个加权平均值来确定人民币汇率：一个是它自己计算得出的值，一个来自国际清算银行(Bank of International Settlements)，还有一个来自国际货币基金组织(IMF)。前IMF官员保罗·格伦瓦尔德(Paul Gruenwald)现在是标准普尔(Standard& Poor's)的亚州经济师，常驻新加坡。他表示，由于美元通常在这些篮子中各占三分之一，可以想见，这种变化意味着人民币对美元汇率变化的波幅可能会是目前的三倍。

The renminbi gained against the broader baskets through much of last year, even as it weakened against the dollar. But this winter, the currency has also weakened against the averages, as it has followed the dollar down against the euro.

去年很多时候，人民币即使相对于美元走弱，但相对于更大的篮子却在升值。但是这个冬天，人民币相对于平均值也有所走弱，因为它和美元一起，相对于欧元贬值了。

By not specifying which of the baskets is most important, the People’s Bank of China keeps greater flexibility, although at the cost of also allowing greater uncertainty in financial markets. China’s own basket includes currencies that are somewhat important for its trade, like the Russian ruble and Malaysian ringgit. The I.M.F.’s special drawing rights, another basket cited by Mr. Yi, only has the dollar, euro, yen, British pound and the renminbi.

中国人民银行没有指出哪个篮子最重要，从而保持了较高的灵活性，不过这也增加了金融市场的不确定性。中国自己的篮子纳入了一些对该国贸易比较重要的货币，比如俄罗斯卢布和马来西亚林吉特。易纲还提到了另一个名为IMF特别提款权的篮子，而它只包括美元、欧元、日元、英镑和人民币。