全球二线城市商业地产受热捧 Second tier cities rival capital returns

Last year the high prices demanded of Property investors in the world’s “super cities” of London, New York, Tokyo and Paris drove global fund managers towards a second rung of merely excellent cities such as Berlin, Beijing and Seattle.

去年，伦敦、纽约、东京和巴黎这样的世界“超一线城市”房产投资商索取的高价把全球基金经理赶到了柏林、北京、西雅图等一般优秀的二线城市。

Commercial property investment leapt 65 per cent to $30bn in this group of lower-tier destinations. By contrast total spending in 2015 across the world’s top four super cities fell by 10 per cent to $128bn compared with the previous year, according to latest figures from JLL, the international property agency.

这些二线城市的商业地产投资陡增65%，达到300亿美元。相比之下，根据国际房地产机构仲量联行(JLL)的最新数据，四大超一线城市的总投资较上年减少了10%，降至1280亿美元。

Though super cities may command the weight of investment in commercial real estate, they do not necessarily all offer the best returns. Anticipating swings in returns available across the many dozens of less obvious and unfashionable urban destinations is also part of the task faced by an elite group of global fund managers. It is relatively easy to identify a solid core of favoured locations in the US and Europe. Delivering a shopping list of winning locations to property investors has become more challenging in Asia, however, as regional economic uncertainty has risen.

虽然超一线城市在商业地产投资中占大头，这些投资并不一定都能获得最好的回报。对一个精英的全球基金经理群体来说，在数十个不那么起眼或者时兴的城市中预测回报的起起伏伏，也是任务的一部分。在美国和欧洲，确定一批受青睐的地点相对容易。但是，随着亚洲经济不确定性的提高，在亚洲为地产投资者确定能盈利的地点已经变得更加困难。

Alastair Hughes, chief executive of JLL’s Asia Pacific division, argues that Bangalore, Manila and Shenzhen remain good investment bets. “Each has large, young and fast growing populations,” he says.

仲量联行亚太区首席执行官阿拉斯泰尔•休斯(Alastair Hughes)认为，班加罗尔、马尼拉以及深圳依然是很好的投资对象。“这几个城市都有着大量快速增长的年轻人口，”他说。

Shenzhen has become China’s Silicon Valley while Manila’s appeal is growing as it experiences the beginnings of an outsourcing boom. For its part, Bangalore has already become a world leader of IT outsourcing.

深圳已经成了中国的硅谷，而马尼拉的吸引力随着其迎来外包业务繁荣期而上升。而班加罗尔已经成为世界IT外包业务的领头羊。

Europe offers an increasing range of less obvious attractive destinations. Nine of JLL’s dozen favourite spots in Europe are not prime global locations. Aside from Paris and London, Istanbul, Dublin, Edinburgh and Manchester feature in this list. “There is increasing recognition that success is no longer purely about size but involves a capacity to adapt,” concludes the JLL report, which is scheduled to appear on March 15 at the same time as the MIPIM trade show in Cannes.

欧洲不那么起眼但具有吸引力的城市在不断增加。仲量联行最青睐的12个欧洲城市中，有9个都不是全球顶级城市。除了巴黎和伦敦之外，伊斯坦布尔、都柏林、爱丁堡和曼彻斯特都榜上有名。“人们越来越意识到，成功不再仅仅取决于规模大小，还涉及适应能力，”仲量联行的报告得出结论认为。该报告配合3月15日在戛纳举行的“MIPIM”房产展销会发布。

Property fund managers spend much time and expense at this annual assembly of industry leaders on the French Riviera, both aboard yachts and ashore, promoting investment strategies and attempting to grab the attention of the world’s biggest pension, life and sovereign wealth funds.

这个行业领袖齐聚的年度盛会在法国黄金海岸(Riviera)举行。地产基金经理在游艇和岸上的活动上投入了大量时间与资金，以促销投资战略，试图吸引全世界最大的养老金、寿险和主权财富基金的注意力。

The running of global funds generates billions of dollars a year in gross fees. The research produced by agents aimed at justifying their strategies to investors provides a useful “map” of the investment world. But it is also often used internally as a “first filter” by fund managers as a stress test on their own sophisticated risk models.

全球基金的管理每年产生数十亿美元的专业服务费。地产代理机构为了向投资者证明其战略的合理性而发表的研究报告，提供了有关投资世界的有用“地图”。但是基金管理公司内部也经常把这些研究当成一种“初筛”，对他们自己精密的风险模型进行压力测试。

A series of sales of commercial property in London, New York, Hong Kong and Tokyo in 2015 indicate the warning lights may already have been blinking “sell” for fund managers who control large portfolios of assets in prime cities for at least a year.

2015年伦敦、纽约、香港和东京一系列商业地产的出售表明，对那些在顶级城市持有大规模资产组合至少一年以上的基金经理来说，“出售”的警报灯可能已经开始闪烁了。

Anthony Myers, Blackstone’s head of real estate in Europe, appeared to be hedging his bets when he said in Paris last month: “For stabilised assets, it’s a good time to be selling … but we’re still here to buy in Europe.” His views count. Blackstone, ranked the world’s biggest real estate fund manager, has $94bn of property assets under management and a purse filled with billions more.

黑石(Blackstone)欧洲房地产主管安东尼•迈尔斯(Anthony Myers)似乎正在多面下注，最近他在巴黎表示：“现在是出售已经稳定下来的资产的好时机……但是，我们还是要在欧洲买入。”他的观点很重要。作为世界最大的房地产基金管理公司，黑石管理着940亿美元的房地产，还拥有数十亿美元的“钱包”。