中国政府楼市调控政策遏制房价上涨

Chinese property investors are facing a squeeze after a period of rapid house price inflation in the country’s leading cities.

在中国主要城市房价经历一轮快速上涨之后，国内房地产投资者正面临压力。

Top policymakers announced in December that “houses are for living in, not for speculating with”. This was news to many citizens, for whom a house has become not only a place to live, but an investment, a pension plan, a status symbol and often a prerequisite for marriage.

中国的最高决策层在去年12月明确提出，“房子是用来住的，不是用来炒的”。这对许多中国人来说是新闻，对他们而言，房子已经不仅是容身之所，还是投资，是养老保险，是地位象征，还常常是结婚的先决条件。

The housing market is just one of many speculative investment routes for Chinese households seeking quick returns on investment. Over the past few years, amateur investors have piled in and out of a variety of the country’s nascent financial markets, buying up everything from company stocks to garlic futures.

住房市场只是中国家庭寻求快速投资回报的诸多投机性投资渠道之一。过去几年，业余投资者涌进和涌出了国内各种新兴金融市场，大举购入从股票到大蒜期货的一切金融产品。

After the stock market crashed in 2015, however, many retail investors turned back to housing. Unlike less tangible financial instruments, housing is a known asset, which has cultural significance as well as offering a predicable long-term return. Many see it as the obvious target to save towards.

但在2015年中国A股市场崩溃后，许多散户投资者回归住宅市场。与虚拟的金融工具不同，住房是人们熟悉的一种资产，除了能提供可预见的长期回报，还受到社会文化的看重。很多人将房子视作显而易见的存钱目标。

“There’s a strong feeling of needing a lot of savings for a potential period of real need,” explains one local newspaper editor who wishes to remain anonymous. “For example, what happens if my son says: ‘I need to buy a house, or my girlfriend’s not going to agree to marry me’? What would you do as a father then? You have to find a downpayment.”

一位要求匿名的地方报纸编辑表示：“人们有种强烈的感觉——需要存很多钱，以备有一天真的需要。比如，如果我儿子说，‘我要买房子，不然我女朋友不同意嫁给我’。作为一个父亲，你这时候该怎么办？你必须得拿得出首付。”

The commonly held view of housing as an essential investment has helped house prices in big cities such as Beijing and Shanghai to rise by 20-30 per cent last year. But this period of breakneck rises has been brought to an abrupt halt by the government’s decision to stamp out a possible property bubble.

人们普遍将住房视作一项基本投资，在这一共识助推下，北京、上海等大城市的房价去年上涨了20%至30%。但政府决定消除可能的房地产泡沫，这一决定让这一飞速上涨时期戛然而止。

The clampdown started with concerted policies from more than 20 city governments to decrease demand for house purchasing. They have raised the minimum deposit required for taking out a mortgage and made it more difficult to buy extra homes. In addition, financial regulators have rolled out nationwide measures to restrict developers’ access to financing through the state banks and via the stock and bond markets.

中国20多个城市政府同时出台旨在减少购房需求的政策，宣告打压房价行动的开始。这些城市提高了首付成数要求，并加大购买第二套（及以上）住房的难度。此外，金融监管机构还出台全国性措施，限制开发商通过国有银行、股市和债券市场获得融资。

The effect has been a sudden halt in house price growth in the cities designated as “hotspots” by regulators. The latest official data show that in January, prices for newly built housing sold on the commercial market, excluding government-subsidised housing, stayed largely flat from the previous month. Prices in the port cities of Shenzhen and Shanghai even came down by a fraction of a percentage point.

在被监管机构标为“热点”的城市，以上措施令房价增长突然停止。据最新官方数据显示，1月份新建商品住宅价格（不含保障性住房）环比基本持平。深圳、上海等港口城市的房价环比甚至略微下降，降幅为零点几个百分点。

The collapse in price growth is in stark contrast to month-on-month increases — as high as 7 per cent — registered in Shenzhen in 2015. In spring last year, prices were rising at an annualised rate of more than 60 per cent. By January of this year, prices had increased by just 18 per cent over the previous 12 months. as investor interest waned.

价格增长的大幅萎缩与2015年深圳房价环比涨幅（最高达7%）形成明显对比。去年春季，房价还在以逾60%的同比增速上涨。到今年1月份，随着投资者兴趣降低，房价在过去12个月仅上涨了18%。

Transaction volumes have fallen sharply as price growth as slackened. The number of buildings traded in 10 major cities fell by 30 per cent year-on-year in November, December and January, according to data compiled from the Wind Information service.

随着房价上涨势头减缓，交易量大幅下降。据万得资讯(Wind Information)编制的数据，去年11月、12月和今年1月，10个主要城市房屋交易量同比下降30%。

Despite the abrupt turnround in China’s house market boom, analysts say most investors will not be worried. “The Chinese property market is dominated by households, rather than institutional investors,” says Nicole Wong, head of China and Hong Kong property research at CLSA, a consultancy.

尽管中国房地产市场繁荣陡转急下，分析师们表示大多数投资者不会担心。里昂证券(CLSA)中国及香港房地产研究负责人王艳(Nicole Wong)表示：“中国房地产市场是由家庭、而不是机构投资者主导的。”

Jonas Short, head of China research at NSBO, an investment bank, agrees that such households are often buying for the longer term and are optimistic about future price rises beyond the end of this regulatory tightening. “Speculators we’ve spoken to see it as a minor blip. A lot of developers think this is a regulatory down cycle and will back up again,” says Mr Short. “The large majority of homebuyers in China buy and hold for more than two years, for example to pass on homes to children,” he adds.

投资银行蓝橡资本(NSBO)中国问题研究主任乔纳斯?肖特(Jonas Short)也认为，这些家庭购房通常是为了长期持有，他们对监管收紧期结束后价格继续上涨表示乐观。肖特说：“与我们交流过的投机者们视此为一段小插曲。很多开发商认为，这是监管部门态度的降温期，将来监管部门的态度还会再次升温。出于要将房子传给孩子等原因，中国绝大多数购房者买房后持有时间都超过两年。”

There is also little fear that house price falls will lead to knock-on effects for the financial system prompted by US-style foreclosures. The level of mortgage borrowing in the country is low compared to global peers: the average household’s mortgage loans make up only 10 per cent of the value of their housing, compared to almost 40 per cent for the US, according to China International Capital Corporation, an investment bank.

也没有多少人担心，房价下跌将导致出现美国当年那种止赎潮，并由此引发金融系统的连锁反应。中国购房者的按揭成数与全球水平相比较低：据投资银行中金公司(CICC)的数据，平均而言，家庭的按揭贷款额只占其房屋估值的10%，而美国的这一比例将近40%。

Just as stalling prices have been brought about by policy tightening, some argue the government can easily stoke demand. “You won’t see people marching on the street and complaining unless there’s a huge correction — and the government wouldn’t let that happen,” says Mr Short.

有人说，就像政策收紧实现了房价停滞，政府也能轻易地刺激需求。肖特表示：“你不会看到人们上街游行和抱怨，除非房价出现大幅回调——而政府是不会让这种事发生的。”

Policies to curb the house price boom have helped push investors into the resurging Hong Kong market. “One of the reasons prices started coming up again last year was an inflow of investment from China,” explains Ms Wong at CLSA. “With the US beginning to raise interest rates, mainlanders think there could be a prolonged loss of purchasing power in renminbi, so they start to allocate their assets overseas — and Hong Kong is a key receiving end.”

遏制此轮房价上涨的政策帮助推动了投资者进入复苏的香港市场。王艳表示：“去年价格开始回升的原因之一是中国投资流入。随着美国开始加息，内地人觉得人民币购买力可能出现长期下降，因此他们开始将资产配置到海外，而香港是一个重要的接收地。”

Nick Holt, Asia-Pacific head of research at consultancy Knight Frank, says investors including mainland developers and rich individuals are buying in Hong Kong. “There’s lots of money looking to leave. But the capital controls have made it harder,” he says.

咨询公司莱坊(Knight Frank)亚太地区研究负责人尼古拉斯?霍尔特(Nicholas Holt)表示，包括内地开发商和富人在内的投资者正在香港买房。“有大量资金想要离开，但资本管制加大了这样做的难度。”