新兴市场投资再度升温

Investors in emerging markets took fright when Donald Trump won the US election, pulling tens of billions of dollars from investment funds over fears that the new president’s policies would usher in a wave of problems for the asset class.

唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)赢得美国大选后，新兴市场投资者感到害怕。由于担心这位新总统的政策给该资产类别带来一波问题，他们从相关投资基金撤出了数百亿美元。

Half a year later, investors have shrugged off concerns about a so-called Trump slump. They are moving back into emerging markets in an attempt to generate returns in the low-yield environment and exploit strong economic growth in countries from India to Colombia.

半年后，投资者抛弃了对所谓“特朗普低迷”的担忧。他们重新回到新兴市场，企图在低收益环境获得回报，并从新兴市场国家（从印度到哥伦比亚）的强劲经济增长中获利。

Emerging market funds registered their 10th straight week of inflows in the week ended May 24, the same week Moody’s downgraded the sovereign credit rating of China, the biggest country in the asset class. But emerging markets — which are home to 80 per cent of the world’s population — are not for the meek. Witness the carnage that occurred in 2008 when the MSCI emerging markets index, which includes more than 20 countries such as Russia, South Africa and the Czech Republic, lost more than half its value in one year.

在截至5月24日的那个星期，新兴市场基金录得连续第10周资金流入，即便穆迪(Moody's)在同一周下调了中国（该资产类别中最大的国家）的主权信用评级。但是，占世界人口80%的新兴市场不适合胆小者。2008年发生的那一轮崩盘就是例证。当时，涵盖俄罗斯、南非、捷克等逾20个国家的MSCI明晟新兴市场指数(MSCI Emerging Markets index)在一年内失去一半以上价值。

Emerging markets also haemorrhaged money in 2011, and again in 2013, 2014 and 2015, after investors withdrew from the asset class when the US Federal Reserve said it would wind down its bond-buying programme. This sell-off accelerated on the back of a fall in prices for oil and other commodities, which are important industries in many emerging markets.

新兴市场也分别在2011年、2013年、2014年和2015年遭遇资金“失血”，最后一次是因为美联储表示要逐步缩减债券购买计划后，投资者撤出这一资产类别，而石油及其他大宗商品价格的下跌，加快了这轮抛售，因为这些行业对许多新兴市场国家十分重要。

Last year, however, investors gradually returned to emerging markets, leading to a turnround in performance and an 11.2 per cent gain in the MSCI emerging markets index.

然而，投资者去年逐渐返回了新兴市场，使行情止跌回升，MSCI明晟新兴市场指数上涨11.2%。

More than $100bn has flowed into funds investing in emerging markets in the 12 months to the end of March as investors attempt to tap into demographic shifts ushering in much larger middle classes with money to spend. This compares with redemptions of $35bn the previous year, according to Morningstar, the data provider.

根据数据提供商晨星(Morningstar)的说法，在截至3月底的12个月里，逾1000亿美元资金流入了投资新兴市场的基金，原因是投资者试图获益于人口结构转变，后者催生了规模庞大得多、手中有钱可花的中产阶级。这与此前一年350亿美元的赎回形成了对照。