关注社会:亚洲大米供应过剩问题可能加剧

Asia is awash in rice, as favorable weather and government support for farmers combine to produce a bumper crop.

亚洲大米满仓，有利的天气条件加上政府支持农民的举措使水稻获得了丰收。

The glut is driving down prices for big rice importers in Africa and China. But consumers in some of the biggest rice-producing nations, including Thailand and India, are paying higher prices as surplus supplies sit in government warehouses. Asia's surplus will have little impact in the U.S., which produces different varieties of rice.

对非洲主要大米进口国和中国来说，供应过剩开始压低进口价格。但随着过剩的大米囤在政府的仓库里，包括泰国和印度在内的一些水稻生产大国的消费者开始支付更高的价格。亚洲大米供应过剩对美国的影响微乎其微，因为美国种植的水稻品种与亚洲不同。

When traveling by train from New Delhi to neighboring states, a common sight in the countryside is rice piled high on wooden plinths, protected only by plastic tarps. In Thailand, the government has considered using a warehouse at the city's old airport to store rice because other storage facilities are full.

从新德里乘火车到临近的几个邦，沿途常常可以看到农村地区大米高高地堆在木制基座上，上面只用塑料防雨布遮盖。在泰国，政府一直在考虑使用一个旧机场的仓库储存大米，因为其他储藏设施都已经满了。

The surplus is the result of good weather and government programs that encourage rice growing. World rice stockpiles are expected to rise 2% this year, the ninth consecutive annual increase, according to the London-based International Grains Council.

造成水稻产量过剩的原因是良好的天气条件和政府鼓励水稻种植的计划。据伦敦国际谷物协会(International Grains Council)说，预计今年全球大米储量将上升2%，连续第九年出现增长。

Analysts see the glut getting worse. Thailand, a top exporter, is trying to sell some of its own 17 million-ton surplus, the result of a subsidy program in which the government bought rice from farmers at above-market prices. India, the world's biggest exporter, is expecting near-record harvests in a couple of months, as is Pakistan. Meanwhile, demand from large importers, including the Philippines and Nigeria, is dropping.

分析人士认为供应过剩的局面将加剧。主要大米出口国泰国正努力销售部分过剩大米，该国有1,700万吨过剩大米。泰国水稻生产过剩的原因在于政府的一项补贴计划。根据该计划，政府以高于市场价格的水平从农民手中收购大米。世界最大的大米出口国印度几个月后有望实现接近历史最高水平的大丰收，巴基斯坦也是如此。与此同时，包括菲律宾和尼日利亚在内的主要大米进口国的需求开始下滑。

'If Thailand is successful in offloading its rice, it will certainly put downward pressure on prices,' said Darren Cooper, a senior economist with the International Grains Council.

国际谷物协会的高级经济学家库珀(Darren Cooper)说，如果泰国成功地处理掉过剩的大米，无疑将给价格带来下行压力。

The council's index of global rice prices fell to 200 on Friday, its lowest since September 2010 and down almost 5% this year. However, prices vary widely from country to country, because rice is largely sold where it is produced. Just 8% is traded internationally, compared with about 20% for wheat and 36% for soybeans.

国际谷物协会发布的全球大米价格指数上周五跌至200，是2010年9月以来的最低水平，较今年年初跌了近5%。不过，由于大米主要在生产国国内销售，各国的大米价格相差很大。只有8%的大米在全球买卖，相比之下，小麦约为20%，大豆为36%。

In Vietnam's spot market, prices are down about 5% this year, with one of the most heavily traded varieties, 5% broken rice, trading at about $390 a ton. In Thailand, 5% broken rice for export trades at $475 a ton, down 16% this year.

在越南的现货市场，大米价格较今年年初跌了约5%，其中交易量最大的大米品种之一──5%碎米──价格约为每吨390美元。在泰国，5%碎米的出口价格为每吨475美元，较今年年初降了16%。

The only widely traded rice futures contract, offered by CME Group Inc. and reflecting U.S. prices, is up 7% this year, ending Tuesday at $15.895 for 100 pounds. The two markets tend to move independently.

唯一广泛交易的大米期货合约较今年年初上涨了7%，周二收于每100磅15.895美元。该期货合约由芝加哥商业交易所控股公司(CME Group Inc.)提供，可以反映美国的价格。上述两个市场的走势通常是相互独立的。

The tightly regulated and fragmented rice market means consumers and the needy have seen little benefit from the oversupply. Some aid groups favor handouts before stocks deteriorate, while others said governments should encourage a move to other crops by cutting guaranteed prices to farmers.

受到严格监管且分散的大米市场意味着，消费者和贫困人口并未从供应过剩中获得什么好处。一些援助组织赞成在储存的大米变质前派发大米，而其他人则说，政府应该下调对农民的保证价格，进而鼓励农民改种其他农作物。

While farmers have benefited in Thailand, prices in supermarkets there are up 10% since 2011 due to tight supply. Even as government stockpiles ballooned, traders in Thailand imported rice from Cambodia and Vietnam. The government, which is subsidizing farmers' income by buying rice at higher prices, is reluctant to sell it cheaply in the domestic market.

尽管泰国的农民获益，但由于供应紧张，超市中大米的价格自2011年以来累计上涨了10%。就在政府大米储量飙升之际，泰国的商人从柬埔寨和越南进口大米。政府通过以更高的价格收购大米而补贴农民收入，不愿将大米在国内市场便宜出售。

India's agricultural policies have had a similar impact on its domestic prices, economists said. 'I have three school-going children to feed, and its tough on me,' said Jaya, a housemaid, who lives in a single-room house in New Delhi's crowded Tughlakabad area and buys at least 22 pounds of rice each month.

经济学家们说，印度的农业政策对其国内大米价格产生了类似的影响。给人做佣人的贾亚(Jaya)说，我有三个上学的孩子要养，这令我们过得很苦。她住在新德里拥挤的Tughlakabad地区，房子里只有一个房间，每个月要买至少22磅（合10公斤）大米。