供应过剩将导致油价继续下挫

The oil market “could drown in oversupply” as a rise in Iranian output offsets production cuts elsewhere, threatening a further price collapse, the world’s leading energy forecaster has said.

全球顶尖能源预测机构国际能源署(IEA)表示，石油市场“可能会被供应过剩淹没”，伊朗石油产量的增加将抵消掉其他国家减产的影响，这可能导致油价进一步下挫。

In a stark assessment of the challenges facing the global oil industry, the International Energy Agency warned on Tuesday of an overhang of at least 1m barrels a day for a third consecutive year in 2016.

周二，IEA在这份对全球石油业面临的挑战进行的严峻评估中警告称，今年供应过剩的规模将连续第三年达到每日至少100万桶。

Production outside the Opec cartel would decline this year, the IEA said. But that would be offset by slower demand growth and higher production from Iran now that sanctions linked to its nuclear programme had been lifted.

IEA表示，石油输出国组织（Opec，简称：欧佩克）以外国家的石油产量今年将下滑。但石油需求放缓以及伊朗产量增加将抵消掉这一下滑。伊朗受到的与核计划有关的制裁现在已被解除。

“Unless something changes, the oil market could drown in oversupply,” the wealthy nations’ energy watchdog said in its closely watched monthly oil market report.

IEA在其受到密切关注的月度石油市场报告中表示：“除非情况发生变化，否则石油市场可能会被供应过剩淹没。”

It said if Iran — a powerful member of the producers’ group — moved quickly to offer its oil under attractive terms and its Opec peers such as Saudi Arabia refused to “stay on the sidelines”, prices could lurch lower.

IEA表示，如果伊朗（欧佩克的强大成员国之一）迅速采取行动、以有吸引力的条件供应石油，而沙特等其他欧佩克成员国拒绝“离场观望”，油价可能会继续下跌。

Oil prices have tumbled almost 75 per cent in 18 months as the largest producer countries have refused to give ground, with supplies and inventories ballooning to near-record levels.

油价已在18个月内下跌了近75%，原因是大型产油国拒绝让出市场份额，石油供应和库存急剧增加、逼近历史高点。

Global oil stocks rose by 1bn barrels in 2015 from the year before and the IEA has forecast a further increase of 285m barrels over the course of 2016.

2015年的全球石油库存较上一年的水平增加了10亿桶。IEA预测，2016年全年，石油库存还会再增加2.85亿桶。

Overall the IEA expects demand growth to moderate from almost 1.7m b/d in 2015 to 1.2m b/d this year.

IEA预测，总体而言，石油需求增幅将从2015年的每日近170万桶降至今年的每日120万桶。