中国成为全球最大石油净进口国

China has overtaken the US to become the world’s largest net oil importer, according to US estimates, as its steady increase in imports crosses over with the steep decline in America.

根据美国的估测，中国已超越美国成为世界上最大的石油净进口国。中国石油进口稳步增长的同时，美国石油进口正急剧下降。

The US government’s Energy Information Administration said yesterday that in September the gap between oil consumption and domestic production averaged 6.24m barrels per day in the US, and 6.3m b/d in China.

美国能源情报署(Energy Information Administration)昨天表示，9月份，美国日均石油消费量比国内日均石油产量多出624万桶，中国的这一数据则是630万桶。

Estimates from analysts vary, but the EIA said the trend was expected to continue next year.

分析师的估计数字各不相同，但美国能源情报署认为，这一趋势明年将持续下去。

David Goldwyn, a former US State Department official who is an energy consultant, said: “We’ve had a radical change in supply and demand in the US, [and] that change is long-term.”

前美国国务院(US State Department)官员、能源咨询师戴维•戈尔德温(David Goldwyn)说：“美国石油供需情况发生了彻底改变，这一改变是长期性的。”

The US had been the largest importer since moving ahead of Japan in the 1970s, as a result of a decline in production.

自上世纪七十年代在石油进口量方面超越日本以来，美国一直是世界最大的石油进口国，原因之一是其国内产量呈现下滑。

In the past five years, however, the situation has gone into reverse, thanks to advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, which have unlocked reserves in shale rock.

但在过去五年里，得益于水力压裂和水平钻井技术的进步，页岩中储备的油气被释放出来，上述局面发生了逆转。

Booming production from shales such as the Eagle Ford of Texas and the Bakken of North Dakota has raised US output of liquid fuels more than 40 per cent since 2008 to about 12.2m b/d. The EIA expects that to reach 13.2m b/d next year.

2008年以来，德克萨斯州鹰滩(Eagle Ford)和北达科他州巴肯(Bakken)等页岩项目产量的迅猛增长，推动美国液态燃料产量增长逾40%，达到每日约1220万桶。美国能源情报署预计，明年产量将达到每日1320万桶。

US oil demand, meanwhile, has dropped about 4 per cent in five years, to about 18.7m b/d, as a result of improved fuel economy and decreased car use.

另一方面，由于燃油经济性的改善和汽车使用的减少，五年来美国的石油需求量大约下降了4%，至每日1870万桶。

During the same period oil demand in China has risen more than 40 per cent, to about 10.7m b/d. China’s oil production has also risen, but only about 10 per cent, to 4.46m b/d.

而同一时期，中国石油需求量则增长到每日1070万桶左右，增幅超过40%。中国的石油产量也有所增长，但只增长了10%左右，至每日446万桶。

Philip Verleger, energy analyst, forecast that US production would keep rising as the shale boom continued, while demand would fall further as a result of new fuel economy standards and a shift from diesel to natural gas for trucks.

能源分析师菲利普•费勒格(Philip Verleger)预计，由于页岩繁荣的持续，美国的产量将继续增长；另外，由于新的燃油经济性标准以及卡车从烧柴油改为烧天然气，美国的石油需求会进一步下降。

Reductions in US oil consumption would persist even if the price fell, he said. “We are past the point where demand is recoverable.”

他认为，即使油价下跌，美国石油消费量减少的趋势也会持续下去。“我们已经过了需求可以回升的时点。”