季度总结 年上半年汽车业谁输谁赢

The first half of 2014 has unfolded in unpredictable ways: House majority leader Eric Cantor lost a primary election, the U.S. soccer team made it to the Round of 16 in the World Cup, and “Game of Thrones” was actually bloodier than the year before.

2014年上半年发生了很多出人意料的事，比如众议院多数党领袖埃里克·坎托丢掉了初选，美国足球队历史性地杀进了世界杯16强，新一季的《权力的游戏》（Game of Thrones）比上一季还要血腥。

And so it went in auto sales: Many results were unexpected. In an overall economic environment that was surprisingly positive, some segments, brands, and manufacturers glistened while others faltered. Despite being battered by an epidemic of recalls, General Motors GM 0.53% posted better sales than expected, while Ford F 0.98% , celebrating the elevation of its new young CEO, fared worse. Sales of most luxury cars accelerated but Cadillac, a brand still in recovery, fell back. Subaru shined while Mini moped.

上半年也是汽车业奇峰迭起的六个月，很多结果都出人意料。今年经济大环境总体非常乐观，有些细分市场、品牌和汽车厂商的表现非常抢眼，但也有一些折戟沉沙的例子。尽管上半年接连遭遇了一连串召回事件，但通用汽车（General Motors）上半年的销量却超出了预期。相比之下，刚刚换了新帅的福特（Ford）则表现得差强人意。大多数豪华品牌的销量都有所加速，只有仍然处于恢复期的凯迪拉克（Cadillac）不升反降。另外，斯巴鲁（Subaru）交出了一份耀眼的成绩单，而Mini则表现不佳。

After looking over the numbers and reading the post-game analyses, here are some contradictions, mysteries, and surprises that confronted industry observers from January to June.

在查看了销量数字、读过了马后炮式的分析文章之后，行业观察人士们面前仍然摆着一些令人感到矛盾、惊讶或不解的问题。

Sales: With sales running at an annual rate above 16 million cars and trucks and headed toward their best finish since 2006, optimism is the prevailing motive News quoted one securities analyst musing that sales might reach 18 million by 2017. Others believe that sales have peaked for this cycle and need to take a breather before heading higher. They pointed in particular at the growing popularity of six, seven, and even eight-year loans that could leave customers owing money when they go to trade in their old car for a new one.

销量：随着汽车年销量猛涨到1600万辆以上，而且今年很有希望成为2006年以来汽车卖得最火的一年，乐观已经成了汽车业的主流情绪。《汽车新闻》（Automotive News ）引用一位证券分析师的话称，2017年美国的汽车销量有望达到1800万辆。也有人认为，这一轮的汽车销售周期已经走到了顶峰，恐怕要歇一歇才能爬上更高的纪录。有些分析师还特别提到了时下越来越流行的车辆以旧换新贷款，有的能贷六七年甚至八年。

Recalls: GM sold 267,461 cars and trucks in June, far exceeding expectations and temporarily silencing its critics. It seems that the cascade of recent announcements from GM and other manufacturers has created “recall fatigue” among new car buyers. Besides, most of the recalled cars are older models that don’t show up in new car sales.

召回：今年六月，通用汽车一共卖出了267,461台轿车和卡车，远远超过了此前的预期，也暂时平息了批评人士的口舌。貌似最近通用和其他厂商发出的一连串召回声明已经让新车买家形成了“召回疲劳”，反而不怎么往心里去了。另外，大多数涉及召回的车型都是旧款而非新款，也许也是没有影响到销量的原因之一。

Hybrids: The number of hybrid models has increased every year, from 2009 through this year—it now totals 47—but their market share has not kept pace, according to Tom Libby, veteran IHS Automotive analyst. Hybrid share in the first six months actually declined from last year, despite an increase in model count. Libby doesn’t say, but my guess is that the number of buyers willing to pay a premium for gas savings is shallower than expected and it will take another leap in gas prices to jump-start sales. Consumers may also be wary of hybrid mileage claims. Both Hyundai and Ford admit to publishing overly optimistic mileage claims for their hybrid models.

混合动力车型：据IHS　Automotive公司的分析师汤姆o利比介绍，从2009年开始，市面上的混合动力车型逐年递增，如今已经有多达47款在售，但它们的市场份额却没能实现同样迅猛的增幅。今年头六个月，混动车型的市场份额相比去年同期有所下跌，只是车型数量有所增长而已。虽然利比并没有说，但据我本人猜测，愿意为省几块汽油钱而多花很多钱买混动车的消费者可能没有此前人们预想的那么多。要想大幅促进混动车的销量，前提是汽油价格必须大幅提高。另外，现代（Hyundai）和福特也都承认他们标榜的混动车型的油耗其实是有水分的。

Trucks: Pickup truck sales are well off the pace of their peak year in 2005, says independent analyst Warren Browne, and he doesn’t see them climbing up to their former levels for another three or four years. “Unfortunately, we are not close to past peak economic realities, when real GDP growth averaged more than 3%, housing starts were above 1.7 million units and monthly paystubs allowed large-pickup intenders to become consumers,” says Browne. “We are going to have to wait until the next sales cycle, probably 2017-2018, to surpass the 2005 sales peak.” That’s bad news for the Detroit Three, for whom pickup trucks are an outsize source of profits.

皮卡：独立分析师沃伦o布朗尼指出，虽然2005年创下了皮卡销量的纪录，但今年的皮卡销售速度远远地超过了2005年，不过布朗尼并不认为皮卡销时不时还会保持三到四年的高速增长。他说：“不幸的是，我们并不接近上一次销量高峰时的经济状况。当年实际GDP的增长率平均超过3%，新建房屋超过1700间，当时的月薪水平使大型皮卡的爱好者也能够成为皮卡的买主。因此，我们要等到下一个销售周期——可能是2017年到2018年，才能超过2005年的销售高峰。”这对底特律三巨头来说不是并不是一个好消息，因为皮卡业务对“三巨头”来说都是重要的利润来源。

Segments: Compact crossovers climbed another 13% to 1.1 million by Automotive News’ calculation (think Honda CR-V,) while midsize sedans shrank 3% to 1.3 million (think Toyota Camry). How long before these lines cross and baby SUVs become the most popular body style?

细分市场：根据《汽车新闻》的计算，今年上半年，紧凑跨界车型（如本田CR-V）的销量上升了13%，达到110万台。中型家轿【如丰田凯美瑞（Toyota Camry）】的销量下降了3%，为130万台。话说起来，跨界和小型SUV到底是什么时候变成了最受欢迎的车型？

Sports cars: Subaru is the king of all-wheel drive vehicles and wields a big stick in rallying, but has a hard time selling sports cars. It moved 4298 copies of its BRZ, jointly developed with Toyota, while Scion’s version of the same car, called the FR-S, found 7662 buyers in the same period.

跑车：斯巴鲁俨然已经成为全驱车型中的王者，即便这样，它的跑车销量也是差强人意。今年上半年，斯巴鲁与丰田合作研发的BRZ跑车只卖出4298台，同一款车的Scion版（又叫FR-S）只卖出了7662台。

Brands: Fiat Chrysler’s Jeep saw its sales jump an almost unbelievable 45%, on the strength of the compact Cherokee introduced last year. Jeep sold 103,397 more vehicles than in 2013, 80,432 of them Cherokees. New models weren’t enough to lift FCA’s Chrysler, however. Its sales fell 14% despite the arrival of a new 200. Chrysler has been designated FCA’s volume brand, but it is currently being outsold by BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Mazda.

品牌：归功于今年新推出的紧凑型SUV 切诺基（Cherokee），菲亚特-克莱斯勒（Fiat Chrysler’s）的Jeep品牌的销量令人难以置信地猛增了45%。Jeep在2013年一共卖出了103,397台车，其中有80,432辆都是切诺基。然而仅凭Jeep新车型的神勇还不足以提升克莱斯勒的表现。尽管新克莱斯勒200也已到店销售，但克莱斯勒的销量还是下降了14%。克莱斯勒已被认定为FCA的“走量”品牌，但它的销量还是不及宝马（BMW）、奔驰（Mercedes-Benz）和马自达（Mazda）。

Import brands: Kia, the newest full-line manufacturer in the U.S. car scene, proved again that it is a fast learner. Its first-half sales ran 7.9% ahead of a year ago—nearly twice the industry average—and they weren’t all Souls and Rios. As analyst Jessica Caldwell points out, Kia’s top of the line model K900, sells for more than double the $26,000 of its range topper from a decade ago, the Amanti. I drove a $66,400 K900 last week, powered by a big 5.0 liter V-8 and loaded with advanced electronics. Except for the badge on the hood, it was indistinguishable from cars selling for $20,000 or more.

进口品牌：最近进入美国汽车市场的韩国起亚（Kia）再一次证明了它是个快速学习型的企业。今年上半年，它在美国的汽车销量比去年同期提高7.9%——几乎是行业平均水平的两倍。而且，它也并非只靠秀尔（Soul）和RIO这种小车搞“薄利多销”。正如汽车网站分析师杰西卡o考德维尔指出的那样，10年前起亚的旗舰Amanti卖到26,000美元，而如今起亚的新旗舰K900的价格已然是它的两倍。上周我试驾了一辆价值66,400美元的K900，它搭载了一部5.0升V8发动机，还安装了先进的电子系统，从里到外的感觉都与其它20,000美元以上的车型截然不同。

Volkswagen, which can do little wrong in Europe, showed once again that it is a slow learner when it crosses the Atlantic. Still unused to the idea that Americans like change, it has been marketing the same lineup of cars now for several years, and has seen sales fall 7% since the beginning of the year. It has vowed to speed up, but progress is slow. The seventh generation Golf coming to the U.S this fall made its debut two years ago in Europe.

在欧洲称霸一方的德国大众汽车（Volkswagen）再次证明了一旦越过大西洋，它就会变成一个迟缓的学习者。大众汽车至今不明白美国人是个喜欢变化的民族，它现在的生产线依然是好几年以前的生产线，它在美国的销量也比去年同期下跌了7%。虽然大众立志要加速在美国的发展进程，但进展却一直非常缓慢。将于今年秋天进入美国的第七代高尔夫（Golf）早在两年前就已经在欧洲亮过相了。

Overseas markets: China continues to sizzle while Brazil cools off. Slow economic growth and higher interest rates along with, no doubt, football fever – soccer to you – kept Brazilians out of new car showrooms. Its motor vehicle sales fell 10% in June, finishing off a worse-than-expected first half in which sales fell 7.1%. That’s bad news for GM and VW, which both have big operations there. In China, the world’s largest car market, passenger vehicle sales are up 11.2 percent to 9.63 million for the first six months, though sales cooled in June. Domestic brands continue to lose ground to Western makers and now account for only a little more than one-third of the market. That’s good news for GM and VW, the two largest sellers there.

海外市场：虽然巴西市场有所冷却，但中国市场依然炙手可热。经济放缓、利率升高再加上一心看球等原因，使巴西人民今年无心光顾汽车展厅。今年6月，巴西的汽车销量下跌10%，超过了此前预期的7.1%。这对通用和大众等在巴西投入重金建立运营机构的大厂商来说是个坏消息。而在中国这个全球最大的汽车市场，今年上半年乘用车的销量上涨了11.2%，达到963万台。不过到了6月，销量也是有所萎缩。中国国产品牌在西方品牌面前继续丢城失地，目前仅占中国市场三分之一多一点的份额。不过这对通用和大众这两个中国最大的汽车销售商来说却是好消息。

Ultra-luxury: Rolls-Royce sales boil around the world but are only lukewarm in the U.S. Rolls, which is owned by BMW, says customers in Europe and Asia boosted sales 33% in the first half to 1968. That’s in sharp contrast to the skinny increase in the U.S., where One Percenters bought only 450 Phantom, Ghosts, and Wraiths vs. 426 last year. The average Phantom owner has a net worth of $30 million, which is a good thing since the Phantom stickers for $407,500 and can be optioned up to $500,000.

超豪华车型：劳斯莱斯（Rolls-Royce）的车型在全球都卖得异常火爆，唯独在美国市场不温不火。宝马旗下的这个超豪华品牌日前表示，今年上半年，欧洲和亚洲市场贡献了该品牌全球销量的33%，即1968台。而劳斯莱斯在美国的增长微乎其微。今年上半年，劳斯莱斯在美国只卖出450辆，勉强超过了去年的426辆。每位劳斯莱斯幻影的车主至少有3000万美元的身家，这对劳斯莱斯来说也是件好事。因为每辆幻影的起价就是407,500美元，选装版甚至可以卖到50万美元以上。