企业家精神将成中国增长新动力
China’s recent stock market turbulence and currency devaluation has attracted enormous attention from around the world—with a disproportionate amount focused on whether we are seeing the end ofChina’s growth story.
中国近期的股市动荡及人民币贬值引起了全世界的极大关注，而这些关注过多地聚焦在中国的增长故事是否即将结束。
True, many People lost a lot of money (though doubtless some also made a lot) and the reputation of the country’s economic managers has been badly damaged. The aftermath resulting from the meltdown will likely continue to be felt for at least several months, particularly by those private sector companies which have had to shelve plans to raise funds via initial public unlike the global financial crisis of 2008, which resulted in a worldwide slowdown,China’s economic fundamentals are not shaky: its GDP growth is slowing, but a hard landing looks unlikely.
的确，很多人都亏了不少钱（但可以肯定的是也有人赚了很多），而且中国经济管理者的声誉已严重受损。股市暴跌很可能会在至少数月内继续产生影响，尤其是对那些不得不搁置IPO融资计划的私营部门企业。但与导致全球经济放缓的2008年全球金融危机不同，中国经济的基本面仍然稳固：中国国内生产总值(GDP)增长正在放缓，但似乎不太可能出现硬着陆。
Certainly this is what the government appears to believe.
中国政府看来无疑相信这一点。
Over the past few days, Premier Li Keqiang, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan and Minister of Finance Lou Jiwei have all acknowledged the global impact of China’s stock market crash and currency devaluation.
近日，中国总理李克强、央行行长周小川以及财长楼继伟都承认，中国股市暴跌及人民币贬值造成了全球影响。
But they also all stressed that China’s currency had now stabilised, suggesting we are highly unlikely to see any further major devaluation. And they also said they expected China’s growth to remain at around 7 per cent a year for the next half decade, and that during this period, the government would continue to implement structural reforms.
但他们同时也都强调，人民币如今已经趋于稳定。这意味着人民币进一步大幅贬值的可能性非常小。他们还表示，预计未来5年中国经济年均增长将保持在7%左右，在此期间，中国政府将继续实施结构性改革。
It is these reforms which really matter. If China can emerge by 2020 with its economy redirected towards consumption and services, and growth having averaged around 7 per cent along the way, its officials should have more than recovered their reputation for economic competency.
真正重要的正是这些改革举措。如果中国到2020年能实现本国经济向消费和服务驱动型转变、同时在此期间保持7%左右的年均增长，那中国官员何止将挽回自己在经济管理能力方面的声誉。
What makes this 7 per cent figure credible is the fact that while some parts of the economy are clearly struggling — especially those sectors with huge over-capacity, such as steel, coal mining, aluminium and cement — a range of others remain hugely dynamic.
使7%增速显得可信的事实是：虽然中国经济中的部分行业明显已经举步维艰（尤其那些产能严重过剩的行业，如钢铁、煤炭、铝和水泥），但其他众多行业仍保持巨大的活力。
One example is smartphones, where an ever longer list of companies is continuously trying to muscle in on Xiaomi’s phenomenal success in displacing Apple and Samsung as China’s market leader.
以智能手机为例——随着小米(Xiaomi)取代苹果(Apple)和三星(Samsung)成为中国市场领导者，其非凡的成功激励着越来越多的企业不断试图闯入这一行业拼杀。
But Xiaomi’s rise has now been almost matched by another company, Huawei Technologies, which in the second quarter of this year nearly caught Xiaomi in terms of market share, with its 15.7 per cent share of shipments just a whisker behind Xiaomi’s 15.9 percent, according to market research firm Canalsys.
但如今，小米的崛起几乎已被另一家公司——华为(Huawei Technologies)赶上。市场研究公司Canalsys的数据显示，今年第二季度，华为的市场份额已经接近赶上小米，其15.7%的发货量占比仅略低于小米的15.9%。
Huawei’s emergence as a consumer products company is a major achievement – not least because it is also continuing to more than hold its own as the world’s biggest maker of telecoms infrastructure equipment, including a 20 per cent share of the world’s mobile infrastructure market.
华为作为消费品公司的崛起是一项重大成就——何况该公司还继续牢牢保持着自己全球最大电信基础设备制造商的地位（包括占有全球移动基础设备市场20%的份额）。
China’s e-commerce industry also continues to advance at hyper-speed. Alibaba’s share price may have dropped to below its issue price, partly because its revenue growth dropped to 34 per cent year-on-year in the quarter to June, down from a 45 per cent last year.
中国电子商务行业也继续保持着超高的发展速度。阿里巴巴(Alibaba)的股价或许已经跌破发行价，部分原因在于该公司在截至6月季度的同比收入增长从去年的45%下滑至34%。
But that is happening because it is seeing greater competition at home, notably from , China’s second biggest e-commerce company, which saw its revenues rose 61 per cent to $7.4bn during its second quarter.
但这主要是国内竞争加剧造成的，特别是来自京东()的压力，后者是中国第二大电商企业，今年第二季度收入增长61%，达到74亿美元。
Tencent is another company benefiting from Alibaba’s slide in market value. This week it displaced Alibaba as China’s biggest internet business by market capitalisation banking on its record quarterly profits stemming from the continued success of its online games – responsible for more than half its revenues – and the more than 1bn users of its two free messaging apps, smartphone-based WeChat and PC-based QQ.
腾讯(Tencent)是另外一家从阿里巴巴市值下滑中获益的公司。在创纪录的季度利润的支撑下，本周腾讯取代阿里巴巴成为中国市值最大的互联网公司。腾讯在线游戏的持续成功（对其营收的贡献超过一半），以及两款免费通讯应用——基于智能手机的微信(WeChat)和基于个人电脑的QQ——超过10亿的用户推动了其利润增长。
In short, while the country’s economy may no longer be a rising tide floating all boats, it will continue to generate many opportunities — some of them could be of major significance.
简言之，尽管中国经济或许不再是足以浮起所有船只的不断上涨的潮水，但它将继续创造很多机会——其中一些可能具有重要意义。
As China makes the shift from being manufacturing – and investment-driven to seeing services and private consumption take over – a key factor driving these opportunities will be the sharp rise in affluent households. According to a study by Cornell University, China’s middle class population will double in size from its current 300m people by 2025.
随着中国从制造业和投资驱动型经济向服务业和个人消费主导型经济转变，一个促成这些机会的关键因素将是富裕家庭的迅速增多。据康奈尔大学(Cornell University)一项研究显示，到2025年，中国中产阶级人口数量将从目前的3亿增加一倍。
This continued rise in private demand will encourage companies to chase growth – providing they are producing the goods and services these people want.
私人需求的持续上升，将鼓励企业去追逐业务增长——前提是它们提供的商品和服务是人们想要的。
For this to be extended to the rest of the economy, the government needs to accelerate the implementation of its already announced financial and industrial reforms. Doing so will lead to further deregulation, further encouragement of competition, and further greater demand for value-adding innovation and entrepreneurship.
为了让这种情况扩展至经济中的其他部分，中国政府需要加快实施其已宣布的金融和工业改革。这将意味着进一步放松管制，进一步鼓励竞争，以及促进对增值性创新和创业的需求。
On top of the internet and consumer electronics, other sectors where private firms look likely to drive major advances include medical equipment and other healthcare related businesses, energy and transport, including electric vehicles.
除互联网和消费类电子产品外，民营企业可能取得巨大进步的行业包括医疗设备和其他与医疗保健相关的领域、能源以及交通（包括电动汽车）。
As the stock market stabilizes, the IPO plans and other fund raising plans would most likely return. Capital markets will continue to find good companies to invest in and vice versa, good companies will tap into the capital market for new funding.
随着股市逐渐企稳，IPO及其他融资计划将有望重启。资本市场将继续寻找优质公司进行投资，反过来优质公司也将利用资本市场进行新融资。
So while China growth is slowing, the rise of Chinese business is far from ending. Rather, if there is a moral that should be drawn from the market turbulence of recent weeks it is that rather than looking only to the Chinese government to drive growth, the world should also be looking more towards the country’s private sector.
因此，尽管中国经济增长正在放缓，但是中国企业的崛起远远没有画上句号。如果说从最近几周的市场动荡中能得出什么教训的话，那就是，世界应该更多把目光放在中国私营部门身上，而不是一味指望中国政府来推动增长。
China’s growth will inevitably continue to experience some ups and downs, and some cycles will be more pronounced than others. The country has produced a body of entrepreneurs who are willing to take risks, often enormous. They and their businesses are hungry and fast moving. A slowdown will test their resilience – and could well send many to the wall. But others will emerge stronger and they will ultimately be the force that carries the country forward.
中国的经济增长将不可避免地继续经历起起伏伏，一些周期性现象可能会比其他国家更加突出。中国已经培养了一批甘于冒险（常常是巨大风险）的企业家。他们及他们的企业满怀渴望、行动迅速。经济放缓将考验他们的适应能力——可能会使很多企业陷入绝境。但是，其他企业将变得更加强大，并将最终成为推动中国前进的力量。
Edward Tse is CEO of Gao Feng Advisory Company, a global strategy consulting firm with roots in China, and is author of the recently released book China’s Disruptors: How Alibaba, Xiaomi, Tencent, and Other Companies are Changing the Rules of Business
本文作者为植根于中国的全球战略咨询公司高风咨询公司(Gao Feng Advisory Company)的首席执行官、近期出版的新书《中国的商业颠覆者：阿里巴巴、小米、腾讯等公司正在如何改变商业规则》(China’s Disruptors: How Alibaba, Xiaomi, Tencent, and Other Companies are Changing the Rules of Business)的作者
