小心别被忽悠了 美国仍存在赤字问题

The Congressional Budget Office recently put out new budget projections and commentators have had a series of feel-good moments about it. Debt is under control, they say. Projections of Medicare costs continue to fall, they point out. The CBO’s estimates of future interest rates, and hence interest payments, have come down as well, they echo. Amidst all of the congratulations, it is worth pointing out two facts that might give one pause in claiming “victory” in the deficit wars.

美国国会预算办公室（Congressional Budget Office）最近公布了新的预算估算报告。这份报告已经让评论人士迎来了一系列感觉良好的时刻。他们表示，债务已经得到控制。他们指出，联邦医疗保险（Medicare）的预期成本将继续下降。他们还宣称，根据国会预算办公室的估算，未来的利率水平也将下降，利息支出因而将减少。在一片欢呼雀跃声中，值得指出的是，有两个事实可能会延缓他们宣布赢得这场赤字战争“胜利”的时间。

First, the overall debt level is already high relative to historical norms. At its current level of 74%, the ratio of federal debt-to-GDP is at its highest ever, except for seven years around World War II. At that time, the debt ratio peaked at 106% at the end of the war and then fell rapidly, due to low interest rates, inflation, and a generation’s worth of strong economic growth that we can only hope to see again anytime soon.

首先，和历史正常水平相比，美国政府的债务总额仍处于高位。目前，联邦政府债务占美国GDP的74%，除了二战前后的7年，这是该比率有史以来的最高水平。二战结束时，美国的政府债务占GDP的比率为106%，但随后快速下降，原因是低利率、低通胀以及维持了二三十年的强劲经济增长。如今我们只能盼望着这样的经济发展势头能在短时间内再次出现。

Now, however, the debt-to-GDP ratio is not projected to fall. It is projected to creep up slowly over the next decade and then more rapidly in the future. It used to be the case that people worried about whether the debt would increase to high levels – like 74% of GDP. Now, we have arrived there. Before the Great Recession, even with the major tax cuts, new entitlements, increased domestic spending and the expanded military operations of the Bush administration, the debt-to-GDP ratio was just half as big as it is now.

但是，政府债务占GDP比率预期不会下降。今后十年内，这个数字预计将缓慢上升，随后还将迅速增长。以前，人们担心政府债务将达到很高的水平，比方占GDP的74%。而现在，这已经成为现实。在“经济大衰退(Great Recession)”之前，就算布什政府大幅度减税，增加社会福利，提高国内支出并扩大军事行动规模，那时的政府债务占GDP比率也只有现在的一半。

It is interesting that many people who thought former U.S. president George W. Bush’s agenda was unaffordable back when the debt-to-GDP ratio was half as big as it is now feel that a ratio of 74% is nothing to worry about as debt is predicted to rise further.

有意思的是，在当时的情况下，许多人都认为美国负担不了乔治oWo布什总统的开支计划。如今，在政府债务占GDP比率达到74%，并且预期还将进一步增长之际，这些人却觉得没什么可担心的。

But higher deficits, as the CBO reminds us, will crowd out investment, reduce economic growth and reduce the increase in living standards for the population as a whole. More generally, if sustaining a high debt-to-GDP ratio were politically and economically costless, one would have seen many more countries, before the Great Recession, in high net debt territory. After all, countries could spend more and cut taxes with impunity if the debt-to-GDP ratio didn’t matter. In fact, very few were above 70 percent. It is not a good place to be historically nor comparatively.

然而，就像国会预算办公室所提醒的那样，赤字增多会挤占投资空间，降低经济增长率，降低美国民众生活水平的提升速度。更广义地讲，如果居高不下的政府债务占GDP比率不产生任何政治和经济成本，许许多多国家就会在“经济大衰退”之前出现高额净负债。毕竟，如果政府债务占GDP比率无关痛痒，许多国家就可以毫无顾忌地增加开支并减税。而实际上，政府债务占GDP比率超过70%的国家少之又少。无论是以往，还是和别的国家相比，如此高的政府债务都不是好现象。

Second, the current projections of the deficit could prompt unwarranted complacency because they reflect both an improving economy and underlying spending and revenue trends. The figure below shows the CBO’s baseline projection that deficits are basically flat at just under 3% of GDP over the next five years, then rise slightly.

其次，目前预测的赤字水平可能会让人们无端地产生自满情绪，原因是这样的预期既暗含了经济好转，还体现了政府支出和收入趋势的改善。从下图可以看出，在国会预算办公室预测的基准情景中，今后5年内，政府赤字占GDP的比率基本上都将保持在3%以下，随后略有上升。

But this can be misleading. Adjusted for the state of the economy, the deficit is actually getting bigger. As CBO and others project, the long, slow economic recovery will continue the next few years, bringing the economy very close to full employment by about 2018. The improvement of the economy reduces the deficit automatically as tax receipts rise and payments for programs like unemployment compensation fall. To separate the effects of the economy from the effects of policies, analysts examine the cyclically adjusted deficit, which removes the effects of the business cycle for a more meaningful look at the state of the deficit.

但这可能使人产生误解。按照经济形势进行调整后，政府赤字实际上会变大。正如国会预算办公室和其他机构预计的那样，今后几年的美国经济将继续处于长期缓慢复苏状态，美国经济差不多要到2018年才会非常接近充分就业水平。随着税收逐渐增多，失业救济等支出项目不断减少，经济好转将自动降低赤字。为区分经济的作用和政策的作用，分析师考察的是剔除了周期性因素的赤字，它消除了经济周期的影响，以便更有意义地观察赤字情况。

As shown in the figure, the cyclically adjusted deficit is projected to rise sharply over the decade, from about 1.5% of GDP this year and next to more than 3.5% in the out years. (Under a more realistic alternative fiscal scenario, the cyclically adjusted deficit rises to about 3.8 % of GDP in the out years.) A full employment deficit of 3.5% of GDP is serious — the highest since 1990, when policy makers saw deficits caused Bush to violate his own “read my lips, no new taxes” pledge and led lawmakers to enact a deficit reduction package and significant budget reforms.

如图所示，剔除周期性因素后，今后十年政府赤字预计将急剧上升，今明两年将占GDP的1.5%左右，随后几年这个比例将超过3.5%（在更为现实的财政环境下，随后几年的政府赤字占GDP的比率将达到约3.8%）。在充分就业状态下，赤字占GDP的比率达到3.5%是个严重问题——这是1990年以来的最高点。当时，决策者认为赤字致使布什总统违背了他自己做出的“仔细听着，我不会增加税收”这一承诺，并促使国会通过了一揽子削减赤字措施，还进行了重大预算改革。

Long-term fiscal policy is not a crisis. It is not even the most important issue facing the economy this moment – strengthening the recovery is – and the fiscal situation should not stand in the way of changes along those lines. Deficit projections have come down the last few years and are subject to uncertainty.

长期财政政策不会带来危机。它甚至都不是目前美国经济面临的最重要问题——现在最重要的是加快经济复苏。财政情况不应该妨碍基于这些原则而进行的调整。在过去几年中，对赤字的预期不断下降，而且存在不确定性。

But don’t confuse these points with claims of victory in the debt wars. There is still a long way to go and a lot to gain from dealing with fiscal policy choices – in the right way at the right time.

不过，不要把这些和宣称我们赢得了债务战争胜利混为一谈。我们还有很长的路要走，还需要用合适的方法在合适的时候通过选择财政政策来争取很多东西。

Bill Gale, the Arjay and Frances Miller Chair in Federal Economic Policy in the Economic Studies Program at Brookings Institution, is an expert on tax policy, fiscal issues, pensions, and saving behavior. He is also co-director of the Tax Policy Center and director of the Retirement Security Project at Brookings.

比尔o盖尔在布鲁金斯研究所（Brookings Institution）经济研究项目Arjay and Frances Miller Chair教席研究员，专攻联邦经济政策，是税收政策、财政问题、退休金和储蓄行为专家。他还是该研究所税收政策中心联席主任和退休保障项目的负责人。