俄罗斯侵犯波罗的海国家领空频次剧增

The Baltic countries are registering a dramatic increase in Russian military provocations, rattling nerves in a region which fears it could be the next frontier after Ukraine in Moscow’s quest at asserting its regional power.

波罗的海国家遭遇俄罗斯军事挑衅的次数正在骤增，区域各国情绪紧张，担心该地区可能会成为继乌克兰之后莫斯科宣示其地区实力的下一个前沿阵地。

Nato fighters policing Baltic airspace were scrambled 68 times along Lithuania’s borders this year, by far the highest count in more than 10 years. Latvia registered 150 “close incidents”, cases where Russian aircraft were found approaching and observed for risky behaviour. Estonia said its sovereign airspace had been violated by Russian aircraft five times this year, nearing the total count of seven over the previous eight years.

今年，负责波罗的海地区领空治安的北约(Nato)战斗机在立陶宛边境附近紧急升空68次，为迄今10多年来的最高频次。拉脱维亚已发生150次“亲密接触事件”——发现俄罗斯飞机接近其领空并有危险举动。爱沙尼亚则表示，今年该国领空曾5次遭到俄罗斯飞机的侵犯，接近过去8年的总和（7次）。

Finland has had five violations of its airspace this year against an annual average of one to two in the previous decade, while Sweden last week suffered what Carl Bildt called the “most serious airspace incursion” in his eight years as foreign minister.

芬兰领空今年遭遇5次侵犯，之前10年平均每年仅一两次。瑞典领空上周被侵犯，瑞典外交大臣卡尔•比尔特( Carl Bildt)称这是他担任外交大臣8年来“最严重的领空入侵”。

“A lot of people here and across northern Europe are worried about what it means for the future. It’s not benign, it’s rather unpleasant,” said James Rogers, lecturer at the Baltic Defence College. He added that the incursions were “Russia trying to remind everyone it is still a significant air power”.

波罗的海国防学院(Baltic Defence College)讲师詹姆斯•罗杰斯(James Rogers)表示：“很多本区域和北欧的民众都十分担心，（俄罗斯）的举动对未来意味着什么。这并非善举，相当令人不快。”他补充称，侵犯领空是“俄罗斯在提醒所有人，它仍是一支重要空中力量”。

According to one western official, so far this year there have been well over a hundred quick reaction alerts – the scrambling of fighter jets – because of Russian activity in the vicinity of alliance airspace, a threefold increase over the number for the whole of 2013.

一位西方官员称，由于俄罗斯在联合领空附近的活动，今年迄今出现了100多次快速反应警报（战斗机紧急起飞），是2013年全年数量的3倍。

“[We] can attribute some of these flights to an increase in Russian military exercises and activity along Nato’s eastern borders but in many cases the Russian military is being provocative by probing airspace they are not authorised to enter,” said one senior Nato military officer, who confirmed there was significant concern over the increased number of incidents. “As in Ukraine, Russian aggressiveness in the air adds to the tension between the international community and the Kremlin.”

“（我们）可以将其中一些飞行归因于俄罗斯在北约东部边境的军事演习和活动增加，但在很多例子里，俄罗斯军队是在挑衅，他们进入了禁止进入的区域。”北约一高级军官表示，“就像在乌克兰一样，俄罗斯在空中的大胆行为会加剧国际社会与俄罗斯之间的紧张关系。”他证实，北约对侵犯领空事件数量的增多感到非常担忧。

Nowhere is Russia’s growing swagger triggering more concerns than in the Baltic states, which have a history of Soviet occupation, heated political arguments with Russia and sizeable Russian populations. Mr Putin’s new argument that ethnic Russians abroad are part of a “Russian World” and as such worthy of Moscow’s protection has reignited such fears.

俄罗斯越来越招摇的举动引发的担忧对波罗的海地区的影响最为严重，这些国家有被前苏联占领的历史，它们与俄罗斯发生过激烈的政治争论，而且国内的俄罗斯族人口数量众多。普京的最新说法是，海外俄罗斯族裔是“俄罗斯世界”的一部分，值得受到俄罗斯的保护，这一言论再度引发了这些担忧。

“What is happening now in Ukraine is part of a global project,” warns Andrei Piontkovsky, a Russian political commentator highly critical of Mr Putin, adding that the president could target the Baltics next.

猛烈批评普京的俄罗斯政治评论员安德烈•皮昂科夫斯基(Andrei Piontkovsky)警告称：“现在在乌克兰发生的事情是（俄罗斯）全球计划的一部分。”他补充称，普京的下一个目标可能是波罗的海国家。

Defence officials in the Baltic sea region fret that the incidents, taken in conjunction with other recent Russian acts in the region such as the apparent abduction of an Estonian intelligence officer and the seizure of a Lithuanian fishing vessel in international waters, add up to a more assertive stance from Moscow towards the Baltics.

波罗的海地区各国的国防官员担心，把俄罗斯最近的其他行为（例如爱沙尼亚情报官员明显遭绑架以及一艘立陶宛渔船在国际海域被扣）联系起来看，这些事件意味着俄罗斯将对波罗的海国家采取更强硬态度。