彷徨中的俄罗斯反对派

There were still thick crusts of dirty snow piled up on the edges of the pavement outside Krasnopresnenskaya, a Metro station in central Moscow, on Tuesday. Beside this reminder of a long winter stood four young men and women holding bright green balloons. “Spring is coming!” said one of them, while handing out leaflets to passers-by.

2015年2月24日，星期二。莫斯科市中心克拉斯诺普列斯年斯卡娅地铁站外，人行道两边仍堆着肮脏的厚厚积雪。冻实的雪堆提醒着人们这是个漫长的冬天。积雪旁站着四名年轻男女，他们手里拿着亮绿色的气球。其中一人边向路人派发传单，边说道：“春天来了！”

The four, along with similar groups of activists elsewhere, are trying to mobilise their compatriots to come out in Moscow, and a handful of other Russian cities, on Sunday to protest against President Vladimir Putin in what they are calling an “anti-crisis march”.

这四名年轻人，连同俄罗斯各地类似的活动人士群体，正努力动员他们的同胞本周日现身莫斯科及俄罗斯其他几个城市，参加抗议总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)的游行，他们称之为“反危机游行”。

“After years of siphoning off the oil revenues, the current regime has led the country to a standstill and into complete bankruptcy,” the leaflets say. “Putin and his government cannot lift the country out of crisis and must leave.”

传单上写道：“当前政权经过多年对石油收入的榨取，已将这个国家带入停滞，走向彻底破产。普京和他的政府不能带领这个国家走出危机，他们必须下台。”

A few passersby took the leaflets; most ignored them. Three years after 100,000 took part in opposition rallies across Russia, the movement is splintered: some leaders are jailed, others are in exile while several have switched sides.

有几个路人接过传单，但大多数人无视他们的存在。三年前，俄罗斯全国有10万人参加了各地的反对集会，而今这场运动已支离破碎，领导者中有的被监禁，有的已倒戈，有的流亡在外。

With the economy heading into recession, conventional wisdom would suggest that Mr Putin — whose support ratings were catapulted to over 80 per cent by his annexation of Crimea a year ago and have stayed at record highs ever since — might face political trouble.

一年前普京吞并克里米亚时，他的支持率一举超越80%，且此后一直停留在历史高位。但随着俄罗斯经济步入衰退，人们普遍认为普京可能会面临政治困境。

That was the thinking behind the sanctions with which the west has been trying to punish the Russian leader for his Crimea grab. The theory goes that if the oligarchs, whom Mr Putin has kept loyal, were threatened with financial losses, they would start leaning on him to change course. Equally if the public started feeling economic pain, it would also turn against the president.

这正是西方制裁俄罗斯背后的逻辑。西方一直试图借制裁来惩罚这位俄罗斯领导人霸占克里米亚的行为。理论上，如果俄罗斯那些对普京保持忠诚的寡头们面临经济损失的威胁，他们就会开始逼迫普京改变道路。同样，如果俄罗斯人民开始感到经济阵痛，也会掉头反对总统。

But the Russian leader has overturned such assumptions. A constant drumbeat of propaganda has portrayed the crisis as a fight for Russia’s survival — and the vast majority of the population has rallied around Mr Putin.

但这位俄罗斯领导人推翻了上述假设。连续不断的宣传攻势将这场危机描绘成一场俄罗斯的生存之战，让绝大多数俄罗斯人团结到了普京身边。

The economic pain has very clearly set in, although only partly as a result of the sanctions. More significant has been the plummeting price of oil, which together with gas accounts for three-quarters of Russia’s exports and more than half of its budget revenues.

经济阵痛已经很明显地出现了，不过仅有部分是制裁造成的。更直接的原因还是油价暴跌，石油与天然气在俄罗斯出口额里占四分之三，在其财政预算收入中占比超过一半。

Following the collapse of the rouble by more than 40 per cent against the dollar over the past year, consumer prices are soaring, a problem made worse by the government’s decision in August to ban a wide range of food products from Polish apples to French cheese in retaliation against western sanctions.

过去一年卢布对美元暴跌40%以上，卢布崩盘后消费价格飞涨，政府的一项决策更是火上浇油——去年8月，俄罗斯政府为报复西方制裁，禁止进口多种食品，从波兰的苹果到法国的奶酪全都包含在内。

Economic shocks

经济冲击

The authorities are forcing everyone to tighten their belts, freezing public sector salaries and laying off doctors and nurses, while private companies are cutting production and workers.

俄罗斯当局正迫使每个人勒紧裤腰带。公共部门人员薪水冻结，医生和护士被辞退，私营企业则在削减产量和裁员。

The government has said inflation might peak around 15 per cent this summer, and the economy is likely to contract by about 5 per cent. “It’s the biggest crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union,” says Vladimir Milov, a former deputy energy minister.

俄罗斯政府表示，通胀可能在今年夏天见顶，峰值在15%左右，国内经济很可能收缩约5%。俄罗斯前能源部副部长弗拉基米尔·米洛夫(Vladimir Milov)说：“这是自苏联解体以来最大的危机。”

Opposition activists hope to tap into the anger they believe economic hardship will eventually trigger.

反对派活动人士相信经济困难最终将引发人民的愤怒，他们希望能利用这股情绪。

Boris Nemtsov, a veteran liberal opposition politician who briefly served as deputy prime minister under Boris Yeltsin in the 1990s, says stagnant wages and soaring inflation topped the agenda when he met with residents of Yaroslavl, a town northeast of Moscow, last week. “They believed that the embargo on imported foods is America’s fault, and they were surprised when I told them no, that was not Obama, it was Putin,” he says. “This is what we need to make people aware of: the crisis, that’s Putin.”

资深的自由主义反对派政治人士、曾在20世纪90年代鲍里斯•叶利钦(Boris Yeltsin)执政时期短暂地担任过副总理的鲍里斯•涅姆佐夫(Boris Nemtsov)表示，他在上周会见了莫斯科东北雅罗斯拉夫尔镇的居民，那里人们最关注的问题是工资停滞和通胀飙升。他说：“他们认为进口食品禁运是美国的错，当我告诉他们这不是奥巴马的错，而是普京的错时，他们很惊讶。这就是我们需要让人民意识到的，这场危机的根源是普京。”

But nobody is under any illusions that grumbling over Russia’s economic woes will bring about swift political change.

但没人幻想俄罗斯经济困境引发的抱怨会带来迅速的政治变革。

“It hasn’t got to the point yet where economic hardship can have an impact on mass opinion,” says Dmitry Gudkov, an opposition member of parliament.

反对派国会议员德米特里•古德科夫(Dmitry Gudkov)说：“经济还没有困难到会影响大众舆论的地步。”

According to the independent Centre for Social and Labour Rights in Moscow, the number of protests over lay-offs and wages has risen sharply in the past year. But observers believe these will remain limited to towns overly dependent on single employers, and this local isolation will allow the government to deal with it. Economists in Moscow believe that only a further slide in the oil price below $50 and continued sanctions could plunge Russia into a catastrophic financial crisis next year which would significantly alter the situation.

根据莫斯科独立机构“社会和劳动权益中心”(Centre for Social and Labour Rights)的资料，过去一年反对裁员减薪的抗议活动急速增加。但观察人士认为，这些抗议将仅限于那些过度依赖单一雇主的城镇，由于它们在位置上都较为孤立，政府有能力解决它们。莫斯科的经济学家们认为，只有当油价在50美元下方进一步下滑，同时制裁持续，俄罗斯才有可能在明年陷入灾难性的金融危机，而这会造成局面重大改变。

Sunday’s rally is not seen as a test for how Mr Putin’s opponents can exploit the economic crisis, but rather a tiny first step for an opposition reduced to a shadow of its former self. In 2011 and 2012, members of the Moscow middle class mounted a real challenge to Mr Putin when they rallied around Alexei Navalny, the lawyer and anti-corruption blogger.

没有人认为周日的集会能考验普京的反对者利用这场经济危机的能力，而是将之视与之前相比力量已十分微弱的反对派迈出的微小第一步。在2011年和2012年，莫斯科的中产阶层曾集结在律师、反腐败博主阿列克谢•纳瓦尔尼(Alexei Navalny)身边，对普京发起了真正的挑战。

But the movement has since fallen apart. “It is a problem that many activists are abroad, in prison or under house arrest. It weakens the movement,” says Pavel Elizarov, an opposition leader who sought political asylum in Lisbon after the government crushed the 2012 protests. “But for sure it’s better to live abroad than to be in prison.”

但这场运动后来分崩离析。反对派领导人帕维尔•叶利扎罗夫(Pavel Elizarov)说：“许多活动人士要么身处国外，要么被囚禁或软禁，这是个问题。这削弱了抗议运动。不过住在国外肯定要比进监狱强。”2012年的抗议活动遭到政府镇压后，叶利扎罗夫在里斯本寻求政治庇护。

Those left behind are trying to rebuild. “Three years ago, we were an opposition. Now we are no more than dissidents,” says Mr Nemtsov. “The task is to organise a real opposition again.”

留下的人正试图恢复抗议活动。涅姆佐夫说：“三年前我们是反对派，现在我们只不过是异见分子。当前任务是再次组织起一支真正的反对派。”

Group therapy

团体治疗

Organisers say a turnout of 20,000 on Sunday — less than one-fifth of the crowds at the peak of the 2011 protests — would be a “very decent success”.

组织者们表示，周日集会的出席者如能达到2万人，将是一次“非常像样的成功”。这一人数还不足2011年抗议活动高峰期人数的五分之一。

Nina Zavrieva, a 28-year-old tech entrepreneur, says she will attend, if only to reassure herself that there are still like-minded people in Moscow. “In a way it’s like group therapy,” she says.

28岁的高科技创业者尼娜•扎夫里耶娃(Nina Zavrieva)表示，她会参加这场集会，哪怕只是为了安慰自己莫斯科还有与自己志同道合的人。她说：“某种意义上，这像一场团体治疗。”

The opposition is trying to create a platform for a long-term movement.

反对派正努力为一场长期运动创造一个平台。

“The regime has generated a lot of fear. The usual pictures from protests in Russia have been dark ones, with police officers dressed like astronauts and beating people,” says Leonid Volkov, one of the rally organisers and a member of Mr Navalny’s Progress party. “We have to return peaceful rallies to politics as a regular tool.”

纳瓦尔尼领导的进步党(Progress party)党员、集会组织者之一列昂尼德•沃尔科夫(Leonid Volkov)说：“这个政权已经造成了大量恐惧。从有关抗议的寻常照片就可看出，俄罗斯的抗议活动场面黑暗，警察们穿得像宇航员一样殴打群众。我们必须回归和平的政治集会，将此作为常规工具。”

The odds are stacked against them. Mr Navalny himself was jailed for 15 days last week for handing out leaflets advertising Sunday’s protest. He will not be released until March 4, robbing the rally of its main draw.

重重困难摆在他们面前。纳瓦尔尼本人在上周因派发传单宣传周日这场抗议集会，被判监禁15日，直到3月4日才能释放，令这场集会丧失了主心骨。

Last month, police raided both the offices of Mr Navalny’s Anti-Corruption Foundation and the homes of leading staff. “I think they are going to launch some criminal case against us, accusing us of having misused the donations because we paid our staff a salary,” says Roman Rubanov, one of Mr Navalny’s key associates at the foundation.

上个月，警方搜查了纳瓦尔尼的反腐基金会(Anti-Corruption Foundation)办公室，以及主要职员的家。纳瓦尔尼在基金会里的重要伙伴罗曼•鲁巴诺夫(Roman Rubanov)说：“我想他们会对我们发起一些刑事诉讼，指控我们滥用捐款，因为我们向员工支付薪水。”

Even if the opposition can get back on its feet, it is faced with a huge challenge: to broaden its appeal beyond the Moscow middle class and find allies.

即使反对派能重新站起来，还要面临一个巨大挑战：他们要将自己的影响力扩大到莫斯科中产阶层以外，同时还要寻找盟友。

“The opposition movement has to understand why 85 per cent [of the people] are still in favour of the ruling party,” says Ms Zavrieva. “Once they understand the problems of the masses, and manage to work with a greater group of people — not just the 5-10 per cent — then something big is going to happen. At this point the opposition is a little bit in a world of its own.”

扎夫里耶娃说：“反对派运动必须明白，为什么85%（的人民）仍支持执政党。一旦他们明白了群众的问题所在，并设法与更广大的人群合作，而不是仅仅5%到10%的人，就将会有大事发生。在这一方面，反对派有点活在自己的世界里。”

Mr Gudkov exemplifies this disconnect. He half dismisses the need to engage the wider population. “If, roughly speaking, 60 per cent of the population supports Putin, only 5 per cent are active supporters. The other 55 per cent are zombified TV watchers who will never decide any sort of politics,” he argues. “You show them a different picture [on the TV] tomorrow, and they’ll think differently.”

古德科夫充分体现了这种脱节。他部分否定了争取更广泛群众的必要。他称：“粗略地讲，如果有60%的人支持普京，那么只有5%的人是积极的支持者，其他55%的人都是‘僵尸’电视观众，他们永远不会决定任何政治问题。你明天（在电视上）向他们展示不同的画面，他们就会产生不同的想法。”

Making new allies

结交新盟友

Not everyone is as cynical. Mr Navalny’s campaigners realise that while his focus on social media allowed him to build support despite being barred from state television, it also prevented him from reaching Russians over a certain age and outside the capital who do not use those media. To address that, Mr Rubanov and his colleagues are working on what they call Russia’s first political tabloid, an eight-page, monthly pamphlet to publish the dirt Mr Navalny’s anti-corruption campaign digs up about the men and women who run the country.

不是每个人都这么愤世嫉俗。纳瓦尔尼阵营的活动家们认识到，尽管在国家电视台的封杀下，纳瓦尔尼依然靠专攻社交媒体获得了支持，然而这也阻止了他影响特定年龄层次以外、以及首都外面那些不使用社交媒体的俄罗斯人。为解决这一问题，鲁巴诺夫和他的同事们正忙于出版他们所称的俄罗斯第一份政治小报。这是一份8个版面的月刊，上面将刊载纳瓦尔尼的反腐运动挖出来的、关于执掌这个国家的男人和女人们的丑闻。

Mr Navalny has also started to co-operate with Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former oligarch who moved to Switzerland when Mr Putin released him from prison in late 2013 after 10 years behind bars, and who has since proposed himself as an alternative president.

纳瓦尔尼还开始与前寡头米哈伊尔•霍多尔科夫斯基(Mikhail Khodorkovsky)合作。2013年底，普京释放了身陷囹圄10年的霍多尔科夫斯基。获释后他搬到瑞士，而且自此开始表示欲竞选总统。

The opposition will eventually face the question of how a change of power can be brought about. Opposition politicians reject the possibility of a revolution, but some opponents of Mr Putin hope for a palace coup, while others ponder about how the president could be persuaded to step down.

反对派最终将面临一个问题：权力的更迭该怎样实现。反对派政治人士拒绝革命的可能性，但普京的一些反对者期待发生宫廷政变，还有人在思考如何说服总统主动下台。

Mr Gudkov claims that Alexei Kudrin, a widely respected former economic adviser to Mr Putin, has discussed with officials in western governments the idea that the Russian leader and some members of his closest circle could be offered retirement abroad with a promise to be left alone — an arrangement dismissed as impossible by western diplomats in Moscow.

古德科夫称普京的前经济顾问、广受尊敬的阿列克谢•库德林(Alexei Kudrin)与西方政府官员讨论过一个想法：允许普京和他核心圈子的部分成员退隐海外，并承诺不打扰他们。莫斯科的西方外交官认为这一安排不可能实现，不予考虑。

Other politicians are discussing the matter in more realistic terms. “Putin’s rating will not stay at above 80 per cent forever. It will start coming down, very gradually,” says Mr Nemtsov. “And once it does, the fear will diminish, too, and at some point some big business will start supporting and financing us.”

其他政客正从更现实的层面讨论此事。涅姆佐夫说：“普京的支持率不会永远停留在80%以上，它将非常缓慢地开始下降。而一旦他的支持率下降，人民的恐惧就将减少，然后在某一时刻，一些大公司将开始支持和资助我们。”

Such scenarios are long in the future. They anticipate Mr Putin serving another six-year term after the present one ends in 2018. At that point the constitution, which allows no more than two consecutive presidential terms, would force him to step aside. Says Mr Nemtsov: “We are talking about 2024.”

这是他们对很久以后的设想。他们预计普京将在2018年当前任期结束后，再连任下一个6年任期。然后宪法会迫使他下台，因为宪法规定总统连任不得超过两届。涅姆佐夫说：“我们讨论的是2024年的事。”