美军航行自由行动逼中国出牌
It was a short, well-flagged mission and no shots were fired. But Beijing has been pitched into uncharted waters over how to respond to Tuesday’s operation in which a US warship challenged its claims in the South China Sea.
这是一个短暂的、预先打过招呼的任务，没有放一枪一弹。但在如何回应美国军舰周二挑战中国在南中国海领海主张的问题上，中国政府进入了未知水域。
While state media lit up with emotional appeals to nationalism on Wednesday, the official response has so far been muted.
尽管周三的官方媒体充满了情绪化的民族主义呼吁，但中国政府迄今的回应相当低调。
“China’s defence ministry is strongly opposed to this act and lodges solemn representations,” was all the military could muster on Tuesday, while the foreign ministry summoned the US ambassador to lodge a complaint.
周二军方作出的唯一表态是：“中国国防部对此表示坚决反对并向美方提出严正交涉，”同时中国外交部召见美国驻华大使提出抗议。
But support seems to be building for a firmer response and one option, alluded to obliquely by one senior official on Tuesday, is to militarise the islands — something Beijing has this far insisted is not its objective.
但支持做出更强硬回应的观点似乎逐渐占据上风，一位高官周二含蓄提到的一个选项是将这些岛屿军事化——北京方面迄今坚称，这并非其目标。
“We do not hope that in the end China has no choice but to find that it is indeed necessary for us to accelerate and strengthen our capabilities there,” said Lu Kang, a foreign ministry spokesman.
外交部发言人陆慷表示：“事实上，如果有关方面一再在本地区制造紧张，无事生非，最终也许会使中方不得不得出这样一个结论，那就是我们确实有必要加强、加快相关能力建设。”
Aerial pictures taken by the US already show airfields and fortifications: on Fiery Cross Reef a 3,000m runway has been constructed that is capable of handling fighter jets. A second such airfield appears to be under construction on another island.
美国的航拍图片已经显示出这些岛屿上建有简易机场和防御工事：在永暑礁(Fiery Cross Reef)上已经建成了长达3000米、能够起降战斗机的跑道。在另一个岛屿上似乎正在建设第二个此类跑道。
Wu Shicun, president of the Hainan-based National Institute for South China Sea Studies, is among those who believe Beijing may choose the militarisation route, stationing fighter planes and warships on the islands.
一些人相信，中国政府可能选择军事化路线，派遣战斗机和军舰进驻这些岛屿，总部位于海南的中国南海研究院(National Institute for South China Sea Studies)院长吴士存就是其中之一。
“If America only comes into the South China Sea this one time, then China might only take one-time action. If America decides to frequently enter this region, this will make China feel threatened... will have a reason to militarise the islands in order to ensure their safety.”
“如果美国只是这次进入南海，那么中国也只会采取一次性行动。如果美国决定频繁进入该地区，就会让中国感到威胁……他们将有理由军事化这些岛屿以确保安全。”
Richard Bitzinger of the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore concurs. “I don’t think the Chinese need much excuse to militarise the islands,” he says. “The escalation so far has been chiefly on their side. They will wait to see how often the US does this and for how long, and whether other countries, such as Japan, get involved.”
新加坡拉惹勒南国际研究院(S Rajaratnam School of International Studies)的理查德毕辛格(Richard Bitzinger)对此表示赞同。他说：“我不认为中国人需要很多借口才会军事化这些岛屿。事态是否升级迄今主要取决于他们这边。他们将拭目以待，看看美国采取这种行动的频度和持续时间，以及日本等其他国家是否卷入。”
Others see less bellicose outcomes. Gary Li of Beijing-based consultancy Apco Worldwide sees China finding a “face-saving and de-escalatory path” out of the confrontation — if the US makes no further incursions.
其他人则认为不会出现剑拔弩张的结果。北京安可顾问公司(APCO Worldwide)的加里丠(Gary Li)认为，中国将找到“既保全面子又不会升级事态的方法”摆脱对峙——如果美国不再进一步靠近的话。
“The islands are always going to be militarised to an extent. But the difference is whether there are 10 guys living in houses with stilts, or several hundred guys in reinforced bunkers with fighter planes,” he said.
他说：“这些岛屿本来就会在某种程度上军事化。但不同之处在于，是10个人住在高架房里，还是数百人驻守在加固掩体里，还配备有战斗机。”
Much will hinge on the next US move and whether or not it targets other countries, which would demonstrate impartiality.
事态在很大程度上取决于美国的下一步的举措，以及它是否针对其他国家——进入其他国家人造岛周边水域将表明美国是不偏不倚的。
Paul Haenle, director of the Carnegie Tsinghua Centre in Beijing, says: “The fact that [the US] hadn’t operated near the features in question since 2012, and are now doing so after a period of heightened tension in US-China relations over this issue, likely contributes to China’s perception that the primary US goal here is to target them.”
卡内基-清华中心(Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre)主任韩磊(Paul Haenle)表示：“美国自2012年以来没有在相关岛屿附近执行任务，而现在在美中在这个问题上关系紧张了一段时间后采取这样的行动，这很可能让中国认为，美国的主要目标是针对他们。”
