如果美国不再担任全球盟主
History can veer off course.
历史可能偏离正轨。
It happened in 1914 when the first age of globalisation was consumed in the flames of the Great War; and again during the 1930s when economic hardship, protectionism and nationalism nurtured the rise of fascism in Europe.
1914年第一波全球化被世界大战的烈火吞噬的时候，历史偏离了正轨；上世纪30年代经济凋敝、保护主义和民族主义盛行，助推欧洲法西斯主义兴起，历史再次偏离了正轨。
Donald Trump’s election victory heralds another of these dangerous dislocations.
唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)胜选预示着历史又一次面临这种危险的偏离。
It may well be that America is resilient and self-sufficient enough to survive a Trump presidency.
美国很可能因具有足够的适应性和自给自足能力而安然度过特朗普担任总统的几年。
The founding fathers of the republic foresaw the dangers of populist passions.
美国的开国之父们预见到了民粹主义高涨的危险。
James Madison set the first objective of the constitution as to break and control the violence of faction.
詹姆斯.麦迪逊(James Madison)将宪法的第一个目标确定为打破和控制派系的暴力。
For Madison faction was the power of any group united and actuated by some common impulse of passion to seize power at the expense of fellow citizens.
在麦迪逊来看，派系是任何被某种共同感情或利益驱动而团结在一起、以牺牲其他公民权利为代价来攥取权力的团体。
The constitution’s intricate checks and balances are there to block the path to such tyranny.
宪法精心设计了制衡措施来阻止此类暴政。
Rereading this week Federalist No 10, perhaps the most celebrated of what became known as the Federalist Papers, it is obvious that Madison had Mr Trump in mind when he wrote about the need to safeguard the union from domestic insurrection.
近日我重读了《联邦党人文集》第十篇(Federalist No 10)，这或许是《联邦党人文集》中最著名的一章。显然麦迪逊在写道有必要保护联邦不受国内叛乱危害的时候想到了特朗普之类的人物。
The president-elect has said he wants to muzzle the media, torture prisoners, lock out Muslims, expel millions of migrants, build a wall against Mexico and cosy up to to Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
这位美国侯任总统表示，他要压制媒体、对犯人严刑拷打，禁止穆斯林入境、驱逐数百万移民，在美墨边境建造隔离墙以及亲近俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔.普京(Vladimir Putin)。
Lauded by White supremacists, Mr Trump won the prize by disinterring the demons of race.
特朗普获得了白人至上主义者的赞扬，他通过发掘出种族恶魔而成功问鼎白宫。
And yet. Madison’s careful distribution of authority between the three branches of the federal government should check the president’s worst excesses.
然而，麦迪逊精心设计的联邦政府三权分立模式应该可以制约特朗普最糟糕的滥权。
A strong judiciary creates a firewall against arbitrary rule.
一个强有力的司法体系可以防止专政。
Military chiefs will refuse to break the laws against torture.
军方领导人将拒绝违反禁止酷刑法律。
There is a safety catch on the nuclear trigger.
美国还有防止核触发的安全机制。
Republican-dominated it may be, but the new Congress will surely resist an advance to presidential autocracy.
尽管新的国会由共和党主导，但它肯定会抵制总统独裁趋势。
And, yes, given his character, temperament and unfamiliarity with truth, it is always possible that things will end badly for Mr Trump.
诚然，鉴于特朗普的性格、脾气以及不熟悉真相，总是有可能出现不好的结果。
But America’s tragedy — and how else can one describe the passage to the White House of someone whose politics are so boastfully rooted in prejudice and hate — is also the west’s tragedy.
但美国的悲剧——除此之外还能怎么描述自诩政见根植于偏见和憎恨的某人入住白宫——也是西方的悲剧。
The liberal international order has rested not simply on economic vitality and military strength.
自由的国际秩序不仅依仗于经济活力和军事实力，
It has been anchored by a set of values whose appeal is universal.
它还有赖于一系列人们普遍向往的价值观来维系。
Freedom, the rule of law, human dignity, tolerance, pluralist institutions: these are all now scorned by the president-elect of the world’s most powerful nation.
自由、法治、人类尊严、宽容和多元主义制度全都受到全球最强大国家的候任总统的蔑视。
Liberal democracy itself is thus delegitimised.
自由民主制度自身因此丧失权威。
Whatever the course of US politics, the damage inflicted on the alliance of nations that has shaped the world since 1945 is irreparable.
无论美国政治进程如何，自1945年以来塑造全球秩序的国家联盟所遭受的损害将是无法修复的。
Few of the Madisonian checks and balances apply to the conduct of diplomacy and foreign policy.
麦迪逊的制衡措施很少适用于外交行为和外交政策。
Barack Obama, as much as any other president, has shown how America’s place in the world is a choice made by the occupant of the Oval Office.
巴拉克.奥巴马(Barack Obama)和其他总统一样，表明了美国在世界上的地位由白宫主人的选择来决定。
The US-designed global system has been unravelling for some time.
美国设计的全球体系一段时间以来本就在瓦解。
It will not survive the withdrawal of American leadership.
如果美国不再担当领导角色，这种全球体系更将难以为继。
The financial crash of 2008, income stagnation, austerity and disenchantment with free trade has buried the liberal economic consensus.
2008年金融危机、收入停滞、紧缩政策以及对自由贸易的失望情绪埋葬了自由经济共识。
Now Mr Trump has pledged to dismantle the political pillars of the old order.
现在特朗普承诺拆除旧秩序的政治支柱。
America First promotes belligerent isolationism — an approach to international order rooted in power rather than the rule of law.
美国优先推动了好斗的孤立主义——它基于权力、而非法治建立国际秩序。
The narrowest interpretation of national interest takes precedence over broader considerations of international security.
对国家利益最狭隘的解读优先于对国际安全的更广泛考虑。
Mr Trump is content to preside over the dissolution of the US alliance system, leaving Europe vulnerable to Mr Putin’s revanchism and East Asia to the ambitions of an assertive China.
特朗普乐于主持美国同盟体系的瓦解，让欧洲承受普京的复仇主义，让东亚承受日益强硬的中国的抱负。
Japan and South Korea, he has suggested, may want to build their own nuclear weapons.
他表示，日本和韩国可能希望建造它们自己的核武器。
We can be sure that, if he keeps a promise to abrogate the international nuclear deal with Iran, then Tehran will soon enough build its own bomb.
我们可以确信，如果特朗普像他承诺的那样废除与伊朗签署的国际核协议，那么德黑兰将会很快建造出自己的核武器。
Other democracies face their own populist insurrections.
其他民主国家内部也出现了民粹主义的反叛。
Demagogues across Europe have been lauding Mr Trump’s success.
欧洲各地的煽动者赞扬特朗普的成功。
Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s xenophobic National Front, hopes to emulate him in next year’s contest for the Elysée Palace.
法国仇外的国民阵线(National Front)的领袖马琳.勒庞(Marine Le Pen)希望在明年的总统大选中能效仿特朗普获胜。
Hungary and Poland have fallen into the arms of far-right nativism.
匈牙利和波兰投入极右翼本土主义的麾下。
Britain’s vote in June to leave the EU in significant part was an expression of angry English nationalism.
英国在今年6月投票决定退出欧盟，这在很大程度上是愤怒的英国民族主义的表达。
Mr Trump goes further by repudiating the basic, organising idea of the west: the notion that the world’s richest democracies can oversee a fair and inclusive rules-based system to underwrite global peace and security.
特朗普更进一步，他否定西方基本的组织理念：即全球最富裕的民主国家可以监督基于公平和包容性规则创建的体系，从而为全球和平和安全背书。
Co-operative internationalism is to be replaced by competitive nationalism.
协同合作的国际主义将被竞争性的民族主义取代。
So the dangers will now come thick and fast.
因此，各种危险将很快纷至沓来。
How much of a free Europe can survive the withdrawal of the US security umbrella? Will Russia be allowed to restore its influence over formerly communist states in eastern and central Europe? Will rising states in the east and south now look to authoritarianism rather than democracy as a model for their societies? Who will keep the peace in the East and South China seas? How safe or stable is a world organised around the interests of, and conflicts between, a handful of great powers?
失去了美国提供的安全保护伞，欧洲有多少国家能坚持自由民主体制？俄罗斯将得以恢复其对东欧和中欧那些前共产主义国家的影响力吗？东欧和南欧的新兴国家将会把威权主义而非民主作为其社会模式吗？谁将维持南中国海和东中国海上的和平？一个围绕几大强国的利益和冲突而组织起来的世界有多安全或稳定？
America will spurn eventually the lethal concoction of nativism and protectionism that won Mr Trump this election.
美国最终将会摒弃本土主义和保护主义——正是这对致命组合让特朗普赢得了此次大选。
But the west has lost its guardian, and democracy its champion.
但西方失去了守护者，民主失去了倡导者。
