俄罗斯可从朝核危机中获利

One of the people most hated by Vladimir Lenin, leader of the Bolsheviks, was the German social democrat Eduard Bernstein, who proclaimed that “the ultimate aim of socialism is nothing, but the movement is everything”. In Soviet schools we had to study Lenin’s fierce criticism of that view, which he saw as revisionist.

布尔什维克(Bolsheviks)领袖弗拉基米尔?列宁(Vladimir Lenin)最讨厌的人之一，是德国社会民主党成员爱德华?伯恩斯坦(Eduard Bernstein)，伯恩斯坦宣称“运动是一切，社会主义的最终目的是微不足道的”。在苏联时代的学校里，我们不得不学习列宁对这种观点的激烈批判，他将之视为修正主义。

Lenin’s concept was the opposite — to achieve a goal as fast as possible, whatever the cost. Russia has long since ditched Leninism, and adopted the Bersteinian approach — that process is more important than the result, which is shown by Moscow’s approach to North Korea. Ironically, Pyongyang still officially follows Lenin’s teaching that the goal justifies any means.

列宁的观点与伯恩斯坦相反：要尽可能快地达成目的，不惜代价。俄罗斯早就抛弃了列宁主义，并采取了伯恩斯坦的方式——过程比结果更重要，俄罗斯对朝鲜的态度就体现了这种路线。讽刺的是，朝鲜官方仍然遵循列宁的教导：目的证明手段正确。

The North Korean nuclear missile crisis has no easy solution, but managing it is both possible and necessary. And if Russia does this skilfully it will strengthen its position in Asia-Pacific and mark another step away from US hegemony in international affairs. Moscow sees this, and it explains some controversial statements by the country’s officials.

朝鲜导弹危机并无容易的解决方案，但管理这场危机是可能而且必要的。而如果俄罗斯能够巧妙地做到这一点，那将会加强其在亚太地区的地位，并标志着进一步弱化美国在国际事务中的霸权。莫斯科方面认识到了这一点，这也解释了该国官员一些有争议的表态。

Russia supported the UN Security Council’s resolution to toughen sanctions on North Korea (followed by the latest missile launch, fired towards Japan), but Vasily Nebenzya, Russia’s permanent representative to the UN, warned that “no further new sanctions?.?.?.?can help avert the deepening threat from the Korean peninsula”.

俄罗斯支持联合国安理会(UN Security Council)加大对朝鲜实施制裁的决议（之后朝鲜又发射一枚导弹，飞越日本），但俄罗斯常驻联合国大使瓦西里?涅边贾(Vasily Nebenzya)警告说：“进一步的新制裁?……无助于防止来自朝鲜半岛的威胁继续加大”。

Mikhail Ulyanov, director of the Russian foreign ministry’s department for non-proliferation and arms control, “unequivocally” rejected Pyongyang’s conduct, but emphasised: “in the absence of truly reliable international legal guarantees for its national security, North Korea relies on nuclear missile weapons, treating them primarily as a deterrent tool”.

俄罗斯外交部防扩散和军备控制部主任米哈伊尔?乌里扬诺夫(Mikhail Ulyanov)“明确地”反对平壤方面的行为，但强调说：“在其国家安全没有真正可靠的国际法律保障的情况下，朝鲜依赖核导弹武器，将其主要作为一种威慑工具。”

President Vladimir Putin earlier this month condemned the missile tests as “provocative”, but called sanctions “useless and ineffective”. North Korea “would rather eat grass than abandon their [nuclear weapons] programme unless they feel secure”, he said.

俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔?普京(Vladimir Putin)本月早些时候谴责朝鲜导弹试射是“挑衅性的”，但也称制裁“对朝鲜不起作用”。他说，朝鲜“宁愿吃草，也不会放弃他们的（核武）计划，除非他们感到安全”。

The Kremlin understands the North Korean psychology, since Russia’s leaders have historically also felt besieged. For North Korea, it is not about bargaining, but survival —

俄罗斯了解朝鲜人的心理，因为历史上俄罗斯的领导人也曾有受到围困的感觉。对朝鲜来说，发展核武不是讨价还价，而是生死攸关——金正恩(Kim Jong Un)知道伊拉克的萨达姆?侯赛因(Saddam Hussein)和利比亚的穆阿迈尔?卡扎菲(Muammer Gaddafi)的下场，他将核导弹视为自己的生命保障。

Kim Jong Un knows the fate of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Muammer Gaddafi and sees nuclear missiles as his life insurance.

多年来，朝鲜问题并不是俄罗斯的当务之急，但是国内和国际形势都发生了变化。莫斯科方面希望利用在政治上转向亚洲的契机（乌克兰危机加快了这一进程），给其人口不足且欠发达的远东地区带来一股社会经济驱动力。俄罗斯促进发展的传统做法不是刺激投资环境，而是创造地缘政治活力，让自己成为重要的战略参与者——就像叙利亚政府军在战场上取得进展后，该国发生的情况。

For years North Korea was not a priority for Moscow, but that has changed domestically and internationally. Moscow hopes to use the political pivot to Asia, which was accelerated by the Ukraine crisis, as a socio-economic driver of Russia’s under-populated and under-developed far east. The country’s traditional way of boosting development is not to stimulate the investment climate, but to create geopolitical dynamism and make itself an important strategic player — as happened in Syria in the wake of military advances.

兰德公司(Rand)最近研究了俄罗斯在中东的战略后得出结论：“俄罗斯战略中最明显的要素——多方位的外交关系或近期的干涉主义倾向——可能会被更长期的经济、能源和军备合作所取代。这些合作有可能巩固俄罗斯的参与，带来真正的回报，并塑造俄罗斯与地区参与者两方面的关系。”

A recent study by Rand on Russian strategy in the Middle East concluded: “The most visible elements of Russian strategy — its multi-faceted diplomatic relations or its recent interventionist trend — are likely to be superseded by longer-term economic, energy, and arms deals. These have the potential to cement Russian involvement, generate real returns, and shape the relations of both Russia and regional actors.”

俄罗斯在东亚地位独特。可能除了美国之外，俄罗斯与所有相关国家都可以合作。中国是一个重要的合作伙伴，俄罗斯与韩国的关系相当密切，与朝鲜的特殊关系仍有历史回音，与日本的联系也在加强。

Russia is uniquely positioned in east Asia. It has workable relations with all the countries involved, with the possible exception of the US. China is an important partner, relations with South Korea are pretty close, there is still the echo of special relations with North Korea and ties with Japan are strengthening.

朝鲜问题的解决将为俄罗斯经济带来新的机遇，因为目前一些前景光明的能源和运输项目（如通往韩国的输气管道，以及西伯利亚铁路的延伸）被朝鲜的孤立和地区冲突升级的风险“挡路”。

Settlement of the North Korean issue would bring new opportunities for the Russian economy, because promising energy and transportation projects (such as the gas pipeline to South Korea and the extension of the Trans-Siberian route) are blocked by the isolation of North Korea and the risk of escalating regional conflict.

持续多年的“六方会谈”未能阻止平壤方面的核野心，需要采取新的方法。比起俄罗斯和中国7月在联合国提出的“双暂停”——朝鲜冻结导弹试验，美国和韩国暂停大规模军事演习，俄中或许可以提出一项更加雄心勃勃的议程。一种可能的解决方案是由俄罗斯和中国发起联合倡议（不代表美国），向朝鲜提供安全保证，并纳入重大区域经济项目，以换取朝鲜停止挑衅，并接受可验证的核武及导弹计划冻结。

Decades of six-party talks have failed to stop Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions and new approaches are needed. Russia and China could probably offer a more ambitious agenda than the “freeze for freeze” presented at the UN in July — North Korea freezes its missile tests and the US and South Korea impose a moratorium on large-scale military exercises. One possibility is a joint initiative by Russia and China (not on behalf of the US), offering North Korea security guarantees and inclusion in major regional economic projects in return for the end of provocations and a verifiable freeze of the nuclear missile programme.

那将给俄罗斯和中国带来重任，包括有义务对朝鲜不遵守协议作出惩罚。

That would put serious responsibility on Moscow and Beijing, including the obligation to punish North Korea for non-compliance with the agreement.

这可能也会为朝鲜挽回颜面，因为这将被包装为友邦之间的友好协议，而不是向敌人屈服。但美国将视此为奖励无法接受的行为，并予以抵制。