时尚双语:中国石油到底有多大？
Petrochina Soars, But How Big Is It?
PetroChina Co., the main oil and gas producer in China, became the world's biggest company in the course of a few hours of trading yesterday. Or did it?
中国主要石油和天然气生产商中国石油天然气股份有限公司(Petrochina Co., 简称：中国石油)在周一几个小时的交易时间内成为了全球最大的公司。但是，它真的名副其实吗？
PetroChina's stunning debut on the Shanghai Stock Exchange again demonstrated the force of China's bull market, which has more than doubled its benchmark stock index so far this year. The company, which also lists shares in Hong Kong and American depositary shares in New York, saw its Shanghai share price more than double on its first day of trading after it raised $8.9 billion in its first share sale in mainland China. By some measures, PetroChina could now be valued at more than $1 trillion, which would make it by far the world's largest company by market capitalization.
中国石油在上海证券交易所首日上市令人震惊的表现再次显示了中国牛市的力量，今年以来中国股市已经上涨了一倍多。中国石油A股在首个交易日就上涨了一倍多，此前它在中国大陆共筹得89亿美元。按一些标准来衡量，中国石油的估值超过了1万亿美元，使它成为全球市值最大的公司。中国石油还分别在香港及纽约证交所上市交易。
Yet the soaring valuations put on PetroChina and other Chinese-listed companies seem to say more about the problems and idiosyncrasies of China's market than the performance of the companies themselves.
不过，中国石油及其他在中国上市的公司估值的飙升似乎更多体现的是中国股市的问题和特征，而非上市公司本身的表现。
In fact, it is very difficult to determine the real value of Chinese government-controlled companies like PetroChina or Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., a state-controlled lender that is the largest financial institution by some measures of market capitalization. They have complicated corporate structures that keep most of their shares locked up in government hands, with the few that are publicly traded spread across different markets. The scarcity can drive up prices. And the problem is compounded by China's capital controls, which can cause domestic prices to differ greatly from those on other markets.
事实上，很难对像中国石油和中国工商银行(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd.)这种由中国政府控股的公司进行准确的估值。这些企业拥有复杂的公司架构，它们大部分的股份控制在政府手中，少数公开交易的股份散落在不同的市场中。这种股份的稀缺性也会推高股价。中国对资本的控制使这个问题更加突出，因为这种做法导致中国上市公司的股价在国内市场与其他市场之间产生了巨大差距。按某些标准计算，中国工商银行是全球市值最大的金融机构。
PetroChina, for example, sold a mere 2.2% of its share capital to domestic investors in its Shanghai initial public offering. When those shares made their debut on the exchange yesterday, their price rocketed to a close of 43.96 yuan (US$5.90) each, from the IPO price of 16.70 yuan.
以中国石油为例，该公司在上海的首次公开募股(IPO)仅向国内投资者出售了2.2%的股份。在周一首个交易日中，中国石油A股股价开盘大幅走高，最终收于每股人民币43.96元（约合5.90美元），其IPO价格为16.70元。
Applying that price to all of PetroChina's outstanding shares would give the company a market capitalization of around $1.08 trillion, twice that of industry giant Exxon Mobil Corp., the company that, at least before yesterday, had the highest market value in the world, at around $488 billion. But if you apply the price of PetroChina's Hong Kong-listed shares -- HK$18 (US$2.32) each, as of yesterday's close -- to all PetroChina's outstanding shares, then the company is valued at closer to $424 billion. The valuation of PetroChina's American depositary shares is close to the Hong Kong shares. Yet about 86% of PetroChina's shares are held by its state-owned parent and don't trade on any exchange, and it is hard to know what price they would fetch if all of them were actually to come to market.
如果中国石油全部已发行股都按这一价格计算，那么它的市值将达到1.08万亿美元，几乎是行业巨头埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil Corp.)的两倍。至少在上个交易日，埃克森美孚仍以4,880亿美元的市值坐在全球市值最大公司的宝座上。如果中国石油全部已发行股用H股价格（周一收于18港元）计算，它的市值接近4,240亿美元。中国石油的美国存托股票估值与H股接近。然而，中国石油大约86%股份仍在其国有母公司的手中，且不公开交易。一旦有一天真的全部公开交易，也很难预知它们的定价。
'This does not mean that PetroChina is bigger than Exxon Mobil,' says Zhou Chunsheng, a professor of finance at Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business in Beijing. 'We cannot compare them based on stock prices, because their stock prices are obtained from different markets.' By law, Chinese investors can't invest significantly outside of China, and foreign investors are allowed to invest only tiny amounts in Chinese stocks known as Class A shares. That means prices reflect high demand from local investors with few other investment options.
长江商学院(Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business)金融学教授周春生表示，这并不意味着中国石油比埃克森美孚大。由于两家公司的股价来自不同的市场，因此不应该用股价来对两家公司进行简单比较。根据中国的法律，中国国内投资者对外投资选择非常有限，而外国投资者也只能对少量A股进行投资。这也就意味着中国股市价格反映的是中国国内投资者在投资渠道有限的情况下高涨的投资需求。
Given that uncertainty, another way of valuing the company would be to apply prices only to what investors can actually buy and sell -- the so-called free float. The total value of PetroChina's publicly traded shares is about $72.5 billion. That's still large, but nowhere close to Exxon Mobil.
鉴于这种不确定因素，或许可以采用另一个方法来对其估值：仅计算投资者能够买卖的股份──也就是所谓的流通股。中国石油公开交易股份的总价值为725亿美元。虽然这个数字也很大，但不过是埃克森美孚市值的一个零头。
It is far from clear that PetroChina's business deserves to be valued higher than its U.S. rival. PetroChina's Class A shares are trading around 50 times this year's forecast earnings, compared with 20 times earnings for its Hong Kong-listed stock. That compares with an average of 10 times forecast earnings for big oil companies listed internationally.
中国石油的业务是否有理由获得比其美国竞争对手更高的估价也很不好说。中国石油A股基于今年预期收益的市盈率约为50倍，而中国石油H股的市盈率约为20倍。而在国际股市交易的大型石油公司基于预期收益的市盈率平均为10倍。
Exxon Mobil is also significantly bigger than PetroChina. PetroChina produced 1.06 billion barrels of oil equivalent last year, compared with Exxon Mobil's 1.56 billion. Exxon Mobil reported revenue in 2006 of $365.5 billion and earned a net profit of $39.5 billion. PetroChina's 2006 revenue was $91.9 billion and net profit was $19 billion.
埃克森美孚实际规模也比中国石油要大很多。去年中国石油的产量为10.6亿桶油当量，而埃克森美孚为15.6亿桶油当量。2006年，埃克森美孚的收入为3,655亿美元，净利润为395亿美元；中国石油2006年收入为919亿美元，净利润为190亿美元。
Of course, the stock market values companies more on what they will produce in the future than what they produced in the past, and PetroChina does seem to have strong growth prospects. The company projects its production will increase at 4% to 6% a year in the future, while most other major oil companies aren't expected to grow at all.
当然，股市更多地是根据未来的业绩、而不是过去的表现来对公司进行估值的，中国石油的确拥有良好的增长前景。该公司预计今后的年产量增幅将达到4%至6%，而其它多数石油巨头预计都难以实现增长。
That is because PetroChina, through acquisitions and better production and exploration techniques, has been able to find enough new oil and gas to continually increase its reserves even as it pumps more. Gordon Kwan, head of China energy for CLSA Asia Pacific Markets, is still bullish on the stock, arguing that PetroChina will benefit more than its overseas rivals from continued high oil prices.
这是因为，即便是在其石油产量不断增加的情况下，中国石油也能通过收购和提高勘探开发技术获得足够的新油气资源，从而保持储量的继续增长。里昂证券亚太区市场(CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets)中国能源研究部主管关荣乐(Gordon Kwan)仍看好该股。他认为中国石油从油价持续上涨中获得的好处要多于其海外竞争对手。
Whatever its prospects, PetroChina is also benefiting from the overall enthusiasm of Chinese investors, whose unchecked eagerness to put money into stocks has drawn increasing official concern. The seemingly unstoppable rise of China's stock market has drawn worrisome comparisons to the bull markets in Japan and Taiwan in the 1980s, and to the U.S. technology bubble.
不管前景如何，中国投资者目前的高涨热情无疑让中国石油受益匪浅，他们源源不断将资金投入到股市中的做法已经让政府部门越来越感到担忧。中国股市无休止的上涨让人们担心上世纪80年代日本和台湾牛市以及美国科技股泡沫破裂的一幕可能会重演。
'It's very difficult, almost impossible, to predict bubbles. But what we can say is that based on historical examples, this kind of miracle is never sustainable,' said Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist for China Galaxy Securities in Beijing. 'Whether foreign investors believe in this or not is up to them.'
中国银河证券有限公司(China Galaxy Securities Co.)首席经济学家左小蕾表示，预测泡沫非常困难，几乎是不可能的。但我们可以说，根据历史情况看，这种奇迹从来都是不可持续的。海外投资者是否相信这点取决于他们自身。
