复星的方舟可靠吗 Fosun International 40 days to go

Predicting the rain doesn’t count; building arks does. Hong Kong listed Fosun International brings this familiar Buffettism to mind. Fosun’s vessel, built rapidly, is bursting with a menagerie of acquisitions. Styling itself as Asia’s version of Berkshire Hathaway, a storm is brewing that will test Fosun’s seaworthiness.

预测下雨无济于事；建造方舟才重要。在香港上市的复星国际(Fosun International)令人想起巴菲特的这个法则。复星的快速造船过程是通过大量并购实现的。该公司把自己定位成亚洲版的伯克希尔哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway)，一场风暴正在酝酿，它将考验复星这艘大船的适航能力。

Fosun’s chairman, Guo Guangchang, one of China’s wealthiest men, has not reported for work recently. If his disappearance is only a rumour, Fosun has done little to dispel it. On the contrary, Fosun requested that the stock exchange suspend its shares on Friday, then much later issued only a brief comment saying the Mr Guo is assisting with “judicial enquiries”. The waters are rising fast.

中国最富有的人之一、复星董事长郭广昌最近没有上班。如果说他的失联只是传言的话，那么复星几乎没有采取措施消除这种传言。相反，该公司上周五请求证交所停牌，然后拖了很长时间才发布简短声明称，郭广昌在协助“相关司法机关调查”。潮水正快速上涨。

With an equity value of $15bn, Fosun is indebted enough to warrant a junk rating from rating agencies S&P and Moody’s. Only a recent rights issue has brought net debt down from high levels; thus communication with the market is vital for Fosun.

复星的股权价值高达150亿美元，其负债率高，足以被标普(S&P)和穆迪(Moody’s)等评级机构评为垃圾级。只是最近的一次配股才使净债务从高水平回落；因此，对复星而言，与市场的沟通至关重要。

Its debt swelled on the back of an acquisition spree, based on what it calls its “competitive advantage as a China expert”. More than 45 subsidiaries and investments sit under the listed company’s banner, spread among healthcare, steel and financials. Its latest targets have been in the latter industry. Fosun has spent over $2bn on insurers this year alone.

基于其所称的“中国动力嫁接全球资源”理念，复星大举并购，其债务随之大幅飙升。这家上市公司旗下有逾45个子公司和投资项目，涵盖医疗、钢铁和金融业。该公司最新的目标是在金融行业。仅仅在今年，复星就斥资逾20亿美元投资于保险公司。

The shift towards financials is noteworthy. As of June, 60 per cent of Fosun International’s profits stemmed from this sector, especially insurance (a favourite of Mr Buffett). At the same point last year, financials contributed nothing. Fosun may think that owning financial companies outside of China will help fund acquisitions outside of the country’s closed capital system and capture cheap offshore financing.

这种向金融业的转变值得注意。截止今年6月，复星国际的利润有60%来源于金融部门，尤其是保险部门（巴菲特青睐的行业）。在去年6月，金融部门还没有给复星国际带来任何利润。复星可能认为，在中国境外拥有金融公司将有助于在本国封闭的资本体系之外为收购提供资金，并获得廉价的离岸融资。

The waters show no signs of ebbing, and without further clarification investors will have no choice but to assume a flood is on the way. The ark Mr Guo has built had better be sturdy.

洪水没有退潮的迹象，在没有进一步澄清的情况下，投资者将别无选择，只能认为洪水正在涌来。郭广昌建造的方舟最好足够结实。