经济放缓令中国领导人面临艰难抉择

China's manufacturing and property sectors slid further last month, leaving Chinese leaders with what economists said is a tough choice of accepting the economic slowdown under way or stimulating the economy at the risk of exacerbating longer-term problems.

上个月中国制造业和地产行业进一步下滑，这令中国领导人面临经济学家们所称的“艰难抉择”，要么接受经济正放缓的现实，要么冒着长期问题恶化的风险采取刺激举措。

More signs of the sharp slowdown under way came Tuesday with the release of more indicators. China's official manufacturing purchasing managers index, a measure of activity in the factory sector, staged a small rebound. The index edged up to 50.3, compared with February's 50.2, where any figure below 50 indicates contraction. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the figure should be close to 49.0, according to Louis Kuijs, an economist at RBS.

周二公布的又一批数据显示出经济正大幅放缓的更多迹象。中国3月份官方制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)小幅反弹。该指数由2月份的50.2略升至50.3，指数位于50之下意味着制造业衰退。苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)的经济学家高路易(Louis Kuijs)称，经季节性调整后，该指数应接近49.0。

The HSBC PMI, a private-sector index, fell to 48.0 in March from 48.5 in February. Overall, manufacturing--which accounts for almost half of China's economy--looks sluggish, Mr. Kuijs and other economists said.

以民营企业为主要调查目标的汇丰3月份PMI由2月份的48.5降至48.0。高路易和其他经济学家表示，总体上看，占中国经济总量近一半的制造业表现似乎疲软。

'Domestic economic activity slowed across the board in early 2014,' said Mr. Kuijs. With excess capacity in some industries and future demand uncertain, many companies are reluctant to invest, he said.

高路易说，2014年初，中国国内经济活动全面放缓。鉴于一些行业产能过剩和未来需求的不确定性，许多公司不愿投资。

Real estate, a vital component of China's long boom, also shows signs of strain. Average new-home prices were up 10% from a year earlier in March, data provider China Real Estate Index System said Monday. But the pace marked the third-straight month of deceleration, and prices fell year-over-year in 12 of the 100 cities covered by CREIS, up from 10 cities recorded in February.

房地产行业是中国经济长期繁荣的一个至关重要组成部分，该行业也出现乏力现象。中国房地产指数系统(China Real Estate Index System, 简称CREIS)的数据显示，3月份新房均价同比上涨10%，但连续第三个月上涨速度下降。CREIS调查覆盖的100个城市中有12个房价同比下跌，较2月份时的10个有所增加。

The weakening economy adds to concerns from economists that China is in danger of missing the government-set economic growth target for the first time in 16 years.

经济疲软令经济学家们更加担心，中国可能16年来首次出现实际经济增速达不到政府设定目标的情况。

The government announced the target of 'about 7.5%' early last month. Only weeks later, as the gloomy statistics piled up, the State Council, the government's executive body, said it was prepared to tweak growth through limited measures--an easing of monetary policy, accelerated approval of infrastructure projects.

上个月初，中国政府宣布今年经济增长目标为7.5%左右。但就在几周后，随着疲软经济数据的不断公布，国务院表示，准备通过有限措施（放松货币政策和加快基建项目审批）来刺激经济增长。

At a meeting with provincial leaders last week, Premier Li Keqiang said downward pressure on the economy shouldn't be ignored, according to state news agency Xinhua.

据官方媒体新华社报道，国务院总理李克强上周在一个会议上对各省领导讲，经济的下行风险不容忽视。

'My biggest concern is that we're moving toward fiscal or monetary stimulus, and I think that's the wrong policy,' said Haibin Zhu, chief China economist at J.P. Morgan.

摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)中国首席经济学家朱海斌说，他最担心的是政府可能将出台财政或者货币刺激措施，而他认为这是错误的政策。

Last year, China eked out 7.7% growth, helped along by a midyear push from the government in the shape of looser monetary policy and faster approvals for infrastructure. In the slowing economy, some companies are struggling to repay debts. Last month a solar-panel manufacturer, a steelmaker and a small property developer--all industries afflicted by overcapacity--defaulted on bank loans and a bond payment, sparking fears of wider trouble in the financial system.

去年中国经济勉强实现了7.7%的增速，这还要归功于年中时政府放宽货币政策以及加快基建项目审批。由于经济放缓，一些企业在偿债方面遇到困难。上月一家太阳能电池板生产企业、一家钢铁企业和一家小型房地产开发商（都处于产能过剩行业）相继出现贷款和债券违约，令外界担忧中国金融体系将更大面积地出现问题。

Fresh stimulus, however, potentially could worsen a buildup of debt and overcapacity, said Mr. Zhu and other economists. China's total debt rose to 213% of GDP last year, from 140% in 2007, according to Standard & Poor's, a rating agency.

但是朱海斌和其他经济学家认为，新的刺激措施可能导致债务和产能过剩问题进一步恶化。评级机构标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)的数据显示，2013年中国债务占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例达到213%，远高于2007年的140%。

Housing is a particular problem. Worried about falling prices, potential home buyers are staying on the sidelines as property developers introduce price cuts, sales agents said. Angry home buyers in cities like Changzhou and Hangzhou have recently trashed showrooms after developers introduced discounts of as much as 20% to stimulate sales of unsold units.

住房市场尤其成问题。房产中介说，目前开发商正在打折促销，但是由于害怕房价下跌，潜在购房者纷纷采取观望态度。最近，常州、杭州等地的业主怒砸售楼处，因为开发商为了卖掉库存房，给出了高达20%的降幅。

'Signs are mounting that the housing market in a number of cities is not just cooling but actually cracking,' said Wei Yao, an economist at Société Générale.

法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)经济学家姚炜说，越来越多的迹象显示，许多城市的楼市不仅仅是在降温，而是在崩盘。

The government could ease credit or reverse curbs it introduced on house purchases to cool the market when it was hot. But many of the smaller cities already show signs of being overbuilt. 'China is producing more residential property than it really needs,' said Mark Williams of Capital Economics, a research firm.

政府可以通过放松信贷或取消限购令的方式来缓解楼市压力。但是许多小城市已经出现过度建设的迹象。研究公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)表示，中国建造的住房量已经超过了实际需求。

Many economists expect a cut in banks' reserve requirement ratio, which would free up more money for lending. The central bank can also ease financing conditions by keeping interbank rates low.

许多经济学家预计中国央行将下调银行存款准备金率，从而释放出更多可用于放贷的资金。央行还可以通过把银行间利率维持在低位的方式来放宽融资环境。