国际油价下跌考验加拿大油砂产业

OTTAWA, Ontario — For as long as 400-ton dump trucks have been rumbling around the open pit mines of Canada’s oil sands, crews from Kal Tire have been on hand to replace and repair their $70,000, 13-foot diameter tires.

加拿大渥太华——自从400吨的自卸卡车开始在加拿大露天油砂矿的矿坑周围轰鸣行驶，卡尔轮胎公司(Kal Tire)就一直在为这些汽车更换和维护价值7万美元、直径13英尺（约3.9米）的轮胎。

But the relationship, going back over a decade, didn’t spare the company when oil prices began plummeting.

然而油价开始大幅下跌时，这种延续10年的良好关系并没有让这家公司省去麻烦。

Dan Allan, the senior vice president of Kal’s mining tire unit, said that customers immediately began looking for price concessions. Others asked Kal to withdraw personnel from some sites or swiftly canceled plans to add more maintenance crews.

卡尔轮胎矿业轮胎部门的高级副总裁丹·艾伦(Dan Allan)说，他的客户们马上就开始寻求价格优惠。另一些公司则要求卡尔从一些矿场撤出人员，或者迅速取消了增加养护人员的计划。

“We’re sort of caught at the sharp end of the spear,” said Mr. Allan, who is now looking to relocate some employees. “It’s really difficult.”

“我们陷入了最麻烦的境地，”艾伦说。“真的很棘手。”他正在考虑转移部分员工。

Canada’s oil sands — and the 167 billion barrels of reserves — prompted an unprecedented expansion over the last decade. But the roughly $155 billion spending spree left the industry with unusually high production costs.

加拿大的油砂储量有1670亿桶，在过去10年，加拿大油砂产业出现了前所未有的扩张。不过约1550亿美元（约合9700亿元人民币）的开支狂潮，却让这个产业有了异常高的生产成本。

Now, oil sands operators are scrambling to limit the damage, as crude prices hover near seven-year lows.

现在，由于原油价格徘徊在七年以来的最低水平，油砂开采企业正在手忙脚乱地控制损失。

Suncor, the largest oil sands operator, announced plans to eliminate about 1,000 contract jobs. Shell Canada said it would cut its oil sands work force by about 10 percent. Cenovus Energy said that it would reduce investment spending by 27 percent, and set aside plans for two oil sands project expansions.

最大的油砂企业森科能源(Suncor)宣布，计划裁减1000个外包岗位。壳牌加拿大公司(Shell Canada)表示，将会裁减大约10%的油砂员工。西诺沃斯能源(Cenovus Energy)表示，将会削减27%的投资开支，并搁置扩建两个油砂项目的计划。

A camp for workers in Northern Alberta, the heart of the oil sands, was permanently closed and another was temporarily shut. Several proposed oil sands projects and expansions are under review or have been deferred.

在油砂储量的核心艾伯塔省北部，一座容纳工人住宿的营地被永久关闭，另一座则被临时关闭。若干个修建或扩建油砂项目的计划正在接受重新审议，或已被搁置。

The cuts, though, won’t necessarily translate into lower production. Oil sands production is expected to increase by 25 percent, to 4.8 million barrels a day, according to January estimates by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, partly because of new projects moving into production.

不过，削减投资开支未必会导致产量下滑。加拿大石油生产商协会(Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers)今年1月估计，油砂产量还会提高25%，达到每日480万桶，部分原因在于一些新项目即将投产。

The enormous projects are just too difficult to switch off, and the companies must keep pumping crude to cover the sizable debt on their multibillion-dollar investments. They also don’t want to cede market share to producers in other countries.

大型的项目要想关闭没那么容易，而且这些企业必须要一直生产，才能偿还投资时账目上产生的几十亿美元债务。此外，它们也不想将市场份额让给其他国家的生产商。

Imperial Oil, which is controlled by Exxon Mobil, said on Monday that fourth-quarter earnings dropped by 36 percent. Even so, the company plans to start production at two new oil sands projects this year.

由埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)控股的帝国石油公司(Imperial Oil)周一表示，该公司四季度营收下降了36%。尽管如此，这家公司今年还是计划让两座新的油砂项目投入生产。

“It really makes no economic sense to bring down production at this point because most of the costs are sunk,” said Stewart Glickman, an energy equity analyst with S&P Capital IQ Equity.

“现在就减产在经济上实在没有意义，因为大部分成本已是沉没成本，”标普资本智商股权投资(S&P Capital IQ Equity)的能源产业分析师斯图尔特·格里克曼(Stewart Glickman)表示。

A frequently cited study prepared for the United States State Department’s review of the Keystone XL pipeline estimated that many oil sands projects become unprofitable at prices of $65 to $75 a barrel. Prices are now below $50.

一份供美国国务院(State Department)审议的关于Keystone XL管线的报告受到了广泛的引用。报告中称，许多油砂项目需要价格在65美元至75美元一桶才能赚钱。目前价格低于50美元。

But the State Department review, which was released in January 2014, doesn’t necessarily account for the changing environment.

不过，国务院的审议报告是在2014年1月发布的，并不一定考虑到了商业环境的变化。

Andrew Leach, an economist and professor of energy policy at the University of Alberta, said that the American figure inflated the break-even point by including a 12 percent profit margin for oil producers. The drop in the Canadian dollar has also provided an added cushion for domestic oil companies that are paid for their products in the now more valuable American currency.

艾伯塔大学(University of Alberta)经济学家，研究能源政策的教授安德鲁·里奇(Andrew Leach)说，美国的数据高估了收支平衡点，因为其中计入了石油生产商12%的利润率。而且加拿大元的贬值也为加拿大国内的石油企业提供了另一层缓冲，因为这些企业的产品是以如今更具价值的美元支付的。

When those factors are combined, Mr. Leach said, “you’re looking at a reduction of the growth rate at current prices, a stall.” He estimates that the production cost for synthetic crude from the major open pit mine projects is $31 to $39 a barrel, at current exchange rates. He added, though, that a few projects with production problems had much higher costs.

综合这些因素，里奇说道，“我们就在当前的价位看到了增速的降低，或者说停滞。”他估计，按当前的汇率计算，从大型的露天矿坑生产合成原油的成本为每桶31至39美元。不过他也说，一些有生产问题的项目中，成本可能会高出很多。

The industry thinking, he said, is, “I’m willing to burn through cash on this project because in the long term it will be worth it.”

他说，油砂产业的思路是，“我愿意在这个项目上烧钱挺过去，因为长远来看是值得的。”

As a result, most oil sands operators are reviewing future projects rather than considering production cuts or stopping projects already under construction. They are also looking to cut costs as swiftly as possible.

因此，多数油砂企业都在审视未来的项目，而不是考虑减产，或终止已经投入建设的项目。它们也在寻求尽可能快地削减成本。

“Nobody in the oil industry feels very secure,” said Ken Smith, president of the Unifor union local that represents about 3,600 Suncor employees who operate the giant dump trucks and excavators. “We’re kind of at the mercy of these big players like the Saudis and Russia.”

“在石油产业里，谁都不会很有安全感，”Unifor工会在本地的负责人肯·史密斯(Ken Smith)表示。“我们基本上任由沙特和俄罗斯这样的大角色摆布。”Unifor工会在这里代表着森科能源的3600名员工，他们负责操作巨大的自卸卡车和挖掘机。

Mr. Smith said he believed that none of Suncor’s 1,000 layoffs would involve his members. Sneh Seetal, a spokeswoman for Suncor, said the company had yet to determine the specifics, but noted that it would involve a mix of contract positions and employees spread across the company’s domestic operations, which include refining and gasoline retailing.

史密斯表示，他认为森科能源解雇的1000名员工，不会涉及自己工会的成员。森科能源发言人斯奈·西塔尔(Sneh Seetal)表示，该公司尚未敲定具体细节，不过提到会涉及该公司在加拿大全国的分支，包括炼油和汽油零售，既有外包岗位也有自身的雇员。

Not everyone is upset or worried about the slowdown in the oil sands. Melissa Blake, the mayor of the regional municipality of Wood Buffalo, which includes Fort McMurray and most of the major oil sands sites, said she welcomed it. After trying to keep up with a population increase of more than 125 percent since 2000, Ms. Blake said, Fort McMurray needs a break.

并不是所有人都对油砂产业的减速感到沮丧或担忧。伍德布法罗(Wood Buffalo)市长梅丽莎·布莱克(Melissa Blake)表示，她欢迎这种趋势。伍德布法罗市下辖麦克默里堡(Fort McMurray)，以及其他许多大型油砂开采地。布莱克说，自从2000年以来，麦克默里堡的人口已经增加了125%以上，这个步伐很难跟上，麦克默里堡需要喘口气。

“The past few years have been just been catching up with the growth we’ve had,” the mayor said. “There’s a bit of an advantage from having a less robust industry.”

“过去几年一直在追赶增长的步伐，”市长说。“产业发展没那么强劲也算是件好事。”

A break, Ms. Blake, said should allow the community’s infrastructure to finally catch up with its growth.

布莱克说，只有先喘口气，这个社区的基础设施才能最终赶上增长的程度。

Ms. Blake said she had seen no obvious signs of a slowdown around town, like emptier stores and restaurants. But that, she said, is probably because most of the 79,000 full-time residents of Fort McMurray are in less vulnerable jobs. That’s probably not the case, she acknowledged, for about 39,000 people who fly in to work on oil sands projects but make their homes elsewhere, often on the other side of Canada.

布莱克表示，她在城市各处没有观察到发展放缓的明显迹象，如店铺或餐馆变得冷清。不过她说，原因或许是麦克默里堡的7.9万名常住居民从事的岗位没那么容易受到冲击。不过她承认，对于那些飞到这里，在油砂项目工作，但家在其他地方的3.9万人，工作岗位或许就没那么安全。这些人的家通常在加拿大的另一边。

But if the slump in prices proves to be sustained, Ms. Blake acknowledged that few would escape its effects.

不过布莱克表示，如果发现价格下跌的趋势维持下去，就不会有什么人能摆脱它的影响。

“There’s going to have to be a real battening down of the hatches,” she said.

“那样的话就需要为迎接风浪真正做好准备，”她说。