人民币迈向国际化的关键一步
The International Monetary Fund will hold discussions in May and make a decision in November on whether to add the Chinese renminbi to the four currencies it uses to value its Special Drawing Right (SDR), the international reserve asset created by the Fund.
China is keen for this to happen, as the deputy governor of its central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), reiterated at a press conference in Beijing on Thursday. There is a snag: the renminbi is not and may never be a convertible currency, which is a standard pre-requisite of a reserve currency. But as David Lubin of Citi Research argues in a note also published on Thursday, that consideration is likely to be put aside.
中国渴望将人民币纳入SDR，正如中国人民银行(PBOC)副行长易纲3月12日上周四在北京召开的记者招待会上重申的那样。一个潜在的障碍是，人民币现在不是、并且可能永远也无法成为可兑换货币，而这正是成为储备货币的标准前提。但正如花旗研究(Citi Research)的戴维•卢宾(David Lubin)在一份同样于上周四发表的报告中所指出的那样，这方面的顾虑可能被搁置一旁。China’s share of global exports has continued to grow since it overtook the US as the world’s biggest exporter in 2007. The renminbi is used to settle almost a quarter of China’s current account transactions.
自2007年取代美国成为全球最大出口国以来，中国在全球出口中的份额持续增长。中国近四分之一的经常账户交易是用人民币结算的。
To be sure, in terms of world payments processed by SWIFT, the renminbi is still tiny compared with the US dollar, the euro and even sterling. But it is not much smaller than the yen and recently overtook the Canadian dollar to become the fifth most used currency. Also, even if by a wide margin, it is the second most used currency in trade finance.
诚然，就环球银行金融电信协会(SWIFT)处理的全球支付交易而言，与美元、欧元、甚至英镑相比，人民币仍微不足道，但它不比日元差多少，而且在最近超过加拿大元，成为全球第五大常用货币。此外，人民币还是贸易融资中的第二大常用货币，尽管比排第一位的美元落后一大截。So China has already made great strides in its ambition to make the renminbi an international currency. It is no small ambition. Success would not only reduce funding costs for Chinese companies and help them expand overseas; it would also support the creation of a Sino-centric financial order to challenge the western-dominated Breton Woods institutions set up after World War II.
因此，中国在人民币国际化的抱负上已经取得了巨大的进展。这种抱负不小。如果取得成功的话，它不仅会降低中国企业的融资成本，并帮助它们海外扩张；而且还会对创立一个以中国为核心的金融秩序起支持作用，来挑战在二战后创立、由西方主导的布雷顿森林体系。How would inclusion in the SDR basket advance China’s progress to its goal? As Lubin notes, adding the renminbi to the dollar, euro, yen and sterling in the SDR basket would not put any obligation on central banks actually to hold renminbi among their reserves, although it would give any bank holding SDRs an implicit exposure to the renminbi.
将人民币纳入SDR货币篮子会如何推动中国实现其目标？正如卢宾指出的那样，将人民币像美元、欧元、日元和英镑一样纳入SDR货币篮子，并不会强制各国央行实际持有人民币作为储备，尽管这会让持有SDR的银行间接持有人民币。Significantly, however, inclusion in the SDR basket would allow the renminbi to sidestep the convertibility criterion for a reserve currency. As Lubin notes, IMF rules state that “reserve assets must be denominated and settled in convertible foreign currencies…” Under that rule, central banks that currently hold renminbi cannot report them as part of their foreign reserves. But if the renminbi joined the SDR basket, it would automatically and by definition become a reserve currency – in all likelihood, Lubin reckons, precipitating a change in the IMF’s rules.
然而，重要的是，纳入SDR货币篮子将让人民币绕过储备货币所必须满足的可兑换标准。正如卢宾所指出的那样，按照IMF的规定，“储备资产必须由可兑换的外国货币计价和结算……”根据此规定，当前持有人民币的央行不能将之报告为外汇储备的一部分。但如果人民币加入SDR货币篮子，它就会按照定义自动成为一种储备货币——卢宾估计，这多半会促使IMF的规则发生调整。If so, central banks would be free to hold renminbi as part of their reserves. This would mark a huge step forward for China’s strategic aims. Rubin writes:
若果真如此，各国央行将能自由地将人民币作为外汇储备的一部分。这将标志着中国的战略目标取得巨大进展。Creating RMB liabilities is really the only way in which China can advance its goal of internationalising its currency, and the persistence of China’s trade surplus means that it is difficult to create net RMB liabilities through the current account of the balance of payments. As a result, China needs to rely on capital transactions to achieve its goal, and inclusion in the SDR basket is an important way of achieving this…
卢宾写道：“创造人民币债务实际上是中国推进其人民币国际化目标的唯一途径，而中国持续贸易顺差意味着，它很难通过国际收支中的经常账户来创造人民币净债务。因此，中国需要依赖资本交易来实现其目标，将人民币纳入SDR货币篮子是实现这一点的重要途径……”Of greater significance, however, is the change implied in the global financial order were the renminbi to join the SDR basket. Lubin quotes a well-known speech of 2009 by the governor of the PBoC arguing that the SDR should become the centre of gravity of the international monetary order, functioning as a “super-sovereign reserve currency” that would be “disconnected from economic conditions and sovereign interests of any single country”. China, then, would share a central role in a system hitherto dominated overwhelmingly by the US dollar.
然而，更重要的是，如果人民币加入SDR货币篮子，它意味着全球金融秩序的改变。卢宾提到了中国人民银行行长周小川在2009年的一场著名演讲，当时周小川表示，SDR应该成为国际货币秩序的重心，作为一种“超主权储备货币”，“超脱于任何一国的经济状况和利益”。中国将在一个迄今由美元占据压倒性主导地位的体系中分享核心角色。What are the renminbi’s chances of inclusion? The IMF, Lubin notes, has two criteria: a country’s share in global exports; and whether its currency is “freely usable”.
人民币进入SDR货币篮子的机会有多大？卢宾指出，IMF有两个标准：一个是一国占全球出口的份额，另一个是其货币是否“可自由使用”。As shown above, the renminbi meets the first of those conditions by a wide margin. The second condition – the IMF’s own rules notwithstanding – is not the same as being “freely convertible”. One of the tests to determine whether a currency is freely usable, Lubin notes, is whether it is “widely traded”. Here, too, the rebminbi appears to qualify. What’s more, Lubin writes, “the IMF makes it clear that the decision to include the RMB in the SDR is not a box-ticking exercise: judgment will be required.”
正如上文讲述的那样，人民币大大超出了第一个标准。第二个标准（尽管是IMF自己制定的规则）并不等同于“可自由兑换”。卢宾指出，决定一国货币是否可自由使用的标准之一是，它是否“被广泛交易”。从这一点来说，人民币似乎也是符合的。此外，卢宾写道：“IMF明确表示，将人民币纳入SDR货币篮子的决定不是打钩练习：它将需要判断。”As Simon Mundy reported for the FT, also on Thursday, Samsung Electronics has outlined plans to start trading renminbi in South Korea, in a bid to cash in on China’s drive for internationalisation. The renminbi’s long march is looking unstoppable.
正如西蒙•芒迪(Simon Mundy)上周四为英国《金融时报》报道的那样，为了利用中国的人民币国际化努力，三星电子(Samsung Electronics)已经草拟了开始在韩国交易人民币的计划。人民币国际化的漫长征途看起来势不可挡。
