人民币全球使用量回落

Use of the renminbi in global payments fell last month, raising questions over how closely the currency’s path to internationalisation is tied to expected appreciation in the coming years.

人民币在全球支付中的使用量上月有所下降，令人质疑人民币的国际化路径与其未来几年升值预期之间的联系是否密切。

The Chinese currency broke into the top five most used payments currencies in December, according to data from clearing system Swift, overtaking the Canadian and Australian dollars.

清算系统Swift数据显示：去年12月，人民币超过加拿大元和澳元，进入全球使用量最大的五种货币行列。

But in February, renminbi use dropped to 1.8 per cent of global payments from 2.2 per cent in December, figures released yesterday showed, nudging it back down to seventh in the rankings.

但昨天公布的数据显示，今年2月，人民币在全球支付中的份额从去年12月的2.2%下滑至1.8%，跌回第7名。

Swift said the fall was probably due to the seasonal effects of Chinese new year, which fell in February this year. But other recent indicators suggest a possible slowdown in renminbi take-up by investors and companies.

Swift表示，这一下降可能是因为中国春节的季节性影响，今年春节是在2月份。但近来的其他指标也表明，投资者和公司转向人民币的速度可能在放缓。

Issuance of offshore renminbi bonds — known as “dim sum” bonds — has fallen sharply this year, and is expected by some analysts to record the first annual contraction since the market opened in 2007.

今年以来，离岸人民币债券（被称为“点心”债券）的发行量大幅减少，有些分析师预计，今年可能成为自2007年该市场开放以来此类债券发行量减少的第一个年份。

So far this year, $5bn has been raised in the dim sum bond market, according to Dealogic, down from $8.6bn over the same period in 2014.

Dealogic数据显示，今年迄今，点心债市场累计融资50亿美元，低于2014年同期的86亿美元。

A survey by HSBC found that fewer global companies were expecting to increase their use of renminbi in cross-border business this year than did in a similar survey a year earlier. HSBC also found that only 27 per cent of those not currently using the renminbi were planning to start using it, down from 32 per cent in 2014.

汇丰(HSBC)的一份调查报告发现，跟一年前的一次类似调查相比，今年希望在跨境业务中更多使用人民币的全球企业有所减少。汇丰还发现，在目前尚未使用人民币的公司中，打算开始使用人民币的仅为27%，低于2014年的32%。

Even Chinese companies are looking elsewhere, choosing to raise new debt offshore in euros as the onset of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank reduces borrowing costs.

就连中国企业都开始转向其他货币，在海外新融资时选择发行欧元债，因为欧洲央行(ECB)开启量化宽松减低了借款成本。

Increasing hesitancy about using the renminbi coincides with a rise in two-way volatility against the US dollar. This month the Chinese currency fell to its lowest level versus the dollar since 2012.

在使用人民币的问题上更加犹豫，恰逢人民币兑美元汇率的双向波幅开始扩大。本月，人民币兑美元汇率跌至2012年以来的最低水平。

Although small compared with the swings in some emerging market exchange rates, the downward moves in the renminbi over the past year have been large by historical standards.

尽管相比某些新兴市场货币汇率，人民币兑美元汇率的变动仍较小，但以历史标准来衡量，过去一年内人民币汇率的跌幅较大。

Expectations of further renminbi depreciation have been building as capital outflows have accelerated and the People’s Bank of China has acted to boost growth by cutting interest rates. Chinese equity markets soared to a seven-year high yesterday on a growing belief that further economic stimulus measures are imminent.

随着资本外流加快以及中国央行(PBoC)以降息提振增长，人民币将进一步贬值的预期近期在加强。昨日，中国股票市场大涨至7年高点，因为人们越来越相信，当局很快就会推出更多的经济刺激措施。

Beijing has taken a number of steps over the past year to encourage international use of its currency, most notably with the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect — a cross-border equity trading link denominated in renminbi.

在过去一年里，北京方面采取了许多扩大人民币国际使用量的措施，其中最引人瞩目的是推出了沪港通，这是一种以人民币计价的跨境股票交易通道安排。

China has also appointed renminbi clearing banks in a number of international financial centres, agreed new currency swap lines with other central banks and handed out renminbi investment quotas. Swift notes that while Hong Kong still dominates renminbi business outside mainland China, its share has been falling as renminbi use in other centres has grown.

中国还在很多国际金融中心指定了人民币清算行，与其他国家央行达成了新的货币互换额度，并发放了人民币投资额度。Swift指出，尽管香港仍在中国内地以外的人民币业务中占据主导地位，但随着其他金融中心人民币使用量的增加，香港所占份额一直在下降。