下一个大泡沫:债券,创业公司,中国?

Blowing bubbles can be fun, but even kids know they pop eventually. Do investors realize this too?

吹气泡是很有趣的，但是，甚至连孩子们也知道，他们最终是会破灭的。投资者们也相信这点吗？

Instead of oxygen, asset bubbles grow because of easy money and unreasonable investor expectations.

不是因为吹入空气，资产泡沫的膨胀源自于低息贷款和不理智的投资期望。

For the past seven years, investors have been living in an era of extremely low interest rates. Investor s have been basically forced into riskier assets to make money. That raises the potential for another dot -com style bubble (and crash) where valuations get way ahead of fundamentals.

在过去的7年里,投资者生活在一个极端低利率的时代。多数投资者都被驱使着进入风险资产以获得财富。这提升了产生与互联网泡沫(或破裂）相似泡沫的可能性，评估价值高于实际价值。

Is the same thing happening today? Possibly.

现在，同祥的事情又发生了吗？有可能。

"There are bubbles everywhere. When you've had zero and negative interest rates and massive amounts of money printing, how could we not be in some kind of bubble?" says Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group.

林赛集团的高级市场分析师彼得·布克瓦说，"泡沫到处都是。当你保持零利率或负利率，同时大量印刷钞票，我们怎么可能不陷入某种泡沫呢？"

It's too early to say for sure, but here are a few of the asset classes being scrutinized as possible bubbles:

现在下结论还言之过早，但是，下面是几个被审查出来的可能存在泡沫的资产种类。

Bonds: Many investors believe the enormous bull market in bonds is defying gravity.

债券：很多投资者相信，债券市场大牛市已经失控。

The clearest sign that things are not right is that bond yields in Europe have actually gone negative. That's not supposed to happen. Investors are essentially paying to own the government debt of countries like France and Germany, which earlier this year sold a five-year bond with negative yield.

失控的最显著信号是，欧洲债券收益率已经是实实在在的负利率了。这本不应该发生。投资者实际上是购买了国债，比如法国和德国国债，今年早些时候，它们出售了一笔5年期的负收益率国债。

"Fixed income is an epic bubble globally," said Boockvar.

布克瓦说，"定息债券是一个史诗级别的全球泡沫。"

The question is what happens to the rest of the financial system if there's a huge correction in the bon d market when the Federal Reserve finally raises rates, especially given concerns about liquidity in fixe d income.

这就是当美联储最终升息，债券市场获得巨大修正时，全球其他金融系统中会发生的事情。尤其考虑到定息债券还有流动性困境。

Startups: Young tech companies with little track record or revenue — let alone profitability — are raising money at a breathtaking pace.

创业公司：年轻的科技公司根本没有业绩和收入，更不用说利润了，他们正在疯狂集资。

Bigger name companies like Airbnb, Lyft and Pinterest are garnering eye-popping valuations that rival those of public companies. Ride-sharing app Uber is reportedly being valued at $50 billion. Talk about surge pricing.

更大的声名显赫的公司，比如爱本卜，Lyft和品趣志，都筹集了令人瞠目结舌的投资，与上市公司竞争。共享应用软件Uber据报道价值500亿美元。价格飙升。

SnapChat reportedly raised money at a $19 billion valuation in February, doubling its value just from December.

SnapChat据报道二月份集资达190亿美元，比它十二月份的价值高两倍。

Noted investor Mark Cuban said the startup bubble is "far worse" than the dot-com one. And even SnapChat CEO Evan Spiegel warned of a coming "correction" in the frothy startup world.

著名投资者马克·库班说，创业公司泡沫比互联网泡沫"糟糕得多"。甚至连SnapChat的CEO埃文·斯皮格尔都对这个即将到来的创业泡沫世界提出警告。

A collapse in the pre-IPO market could dent confidence in the technology sector and the economy more broadly.

上市前融资市场可能会降低技术部门和更多其他经济部门的信心。

"It could be a precursor to a bigger contagion effect down the line," said Ankur Patel, chief investment officer at R-Squared Macro Management.

R平方宏观管理的高级投资主管安珂·帕特尔说，"这可能就是泡沫完全扩散的前兆。"

China: No major stock market is as hot as China's. It's up more than 100% this year alone, despite the fact that economic growth is slowing big time.

中国：没有哪个主要的股票市场能像中国这样火爆。今年，它的股市独自上涨了超过100%，完全不顾经济的大减速。

The mega gains are being fueled by easy money from China's central bank. Retail investors are racing to join the party, with millions of people opening new stock trading accounts.

这个大爆发是被中国央行的低息贷款点燃的。散户们跑步进场，数百万人开通了新的股市账户。

Bank of America Merrill Lynch warned on Friday that "risks are mounting" in China as valuations "have come unhinged" from monetary conditions, corporate earnings and the country's economic growth, which has slowed in recent months.

美林银行周五警告称，中国危机正随着源自货币状况，公司收益和减速的经济增长的评估混乱而加重。

Investors poured $4.5 billion into China funds last week, the largest weekly inflow since April 2008, according to BofA.

根据美国银行的数据，上周，投资者倾泻了45亿美元进入中国基金，这是自2008年4月以来最大的周资金注入。

"That's a violent bubble move too," said Boockvar.

布克瓦说，"这也是一个急剧吹大的泡沫。"

Tech stocks: Investors are on guard for signs the bull market in stocks could be overdone. The U.S. stock market may be more expensive than its peers, but the rally has taken a breather in recent months. The S&P 500 is up less than 3% so far this year.

科技股：投资者们正在警惕着牛市可能过热的信号。美国股市可能过高了，但是，最近几个月，股市已经在休整了。标普500指数今年至今为止只增长不到3%。

That doesn't mean certain pockets of the market can't be experiencing bubbles on their own. Patel pointed to small-cap stocks as well as technology and biotechs as "areas of concern."

这并不意味着市场中的某些股票不能安全的穿越股市泡沫。帕特尔指的是，小微股票，科技和生物技术股票。

Even Fed chief Janet Yellen warned last summer that smaller biotech and social media stocks look somewhat inflated.

但联邦高官珍妮特·耶伦去年夏天甚至警告称，就连小型生物科技公司和社会媒体股票看起来某种程度上也已经产生了泡沫。

Art: It's not just stocks and bonds that are looking problematic. The high end of the art market has been on fire lately. Christie's sold a whopping $1.5 billion of art in three weeks earlier this year, including a Picasso that sold for a record-shattering $179 million.

艺术品：有问题并不只是股票和债券。高端艺术品市场近来也已经膨胀。奥斯陆在今年早些时候，三周内卖出了价值15亿美元的艺术品，包括毕加索的作品，售出了破纪录的1.79亿美元。

"As with high flying stocks, the logic was that the money had to go somewhere and why not a wall instead of a monthly portfolio statement," famed bond investor Bill Gross wrote in a note to clients last week.

著名的债券投资人比尔·格罗斯上周在一篇写给客户的信中说，"随着股票的飞升，逻辑已经变成，钱被驱使到达那些地方，为什么每个月都是疯狂投资且不会停止呢。"

Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the 2008 crisis, recently warned that the lack of transparency into art prices makes it subject to "fads, fashions, manias -- and potential bubbles."

成功预测了2008年危机的鲁里埃尔·鲁比尼，近来警告称，由于艺术品的价格缺乏透明度，它的价格已经受制于"一时的狂热，时尚，投资疯狂——和潜在的泡沫。"

NYC luxury condos: As the pre-crisis housing bubble showed, real estate markets can get out of whack with reality.

纽约的奢侈公寓：危机前房产泡沫显示，房地产市场可以脱离现实。

Some observers are keeping a close eye on the market for luxury condos and other properties in hot destinations like Manhattan.

一些观察者在密切关注奢侈公寓市场和其他高热房地产市场，比如曼哈顿。

A new condo in Manhattan will cost more than $3 million next year, working out to median of $2,158 per square foot, according to CityRealty.

根据城市地产提供的数据，明年，曼哈顿的一间新公寓将价值300万美元，算出来每平方英尺的中位数是2158美元。

A two-level duplex penthouse in One57, a Manhattan skyscraper, sold for a record-breaking $100.5 million in January.

在One57的顶层复式阁楼——一栋曼哈顿摩天——一月份售价达到了创纪录的1.005亿美元。

Now what? Only time will tell which -- if any -- of these asset classes are actually in bubble territory.

又怎么了？只有时间能告诉我们有哪些——如果有的话——资产类别确实出现了泡沫。

And even if they are, it doesn't mean the party will end any time soon. It's notoriously difficult to time when bubbles will pop.

即使它们是泡沫，也并不意味着它们会很快破裂。众所周知，很难预测泡沫何时才会破裂。

"No one knows when these things end. You could have bought the bubble in the Nasdaq in 1998 and had a great 1999," said Boockvar.

布克瓦说，"没人会知道泡沫何时破裂。你本来也可以在1998年购买纳斯达克股票，然后在1999年大赚一笔。"

Of course, your 2000 wouldn't have been so hot if you stayed in.

当然，如果你在2000年还没有退出，那么，你应该就不会那么幸运了。