希腊应该做好放弃欧元的准备

It has been obvious for some time that the creation of the euro was a terrible mistake. Europe never had the preconditions for a successful single currency — above all, the kind of fiscal and banking union that, for example, ensures that when a housing bubble in Florida bursts, Washington automatically protects seniors against any threat to their medical care or their bank deposits.

一段时间以来，人们已经清晰地认识到，欧元的缔造是一个糟糕的错误。欧洲根本没有成功维系单一货币的先决条件——举例来说，首先它就没有那种财政联盟和银行联盟，能在佛罗里达的房地产泡沫破灭时，确保华盛顿方面自动为老年人提供保障，让他们的医疗保险或银行存款不受威胁。

Leaving a currency union is, however, a much harder and more frightening decision than never entering in the first place, and until now even the Continent’s most troubled economies have repeatedly stepped back from the brink. Again and again, governments have submitted to creditors’ demands for harsh austerity, while the European Central Bank has managed to contain market panic.

然而与一开始就不进入货币联盟相比，脱离货币联盟的决定要艰难得多、恐怖得多。迄今为止，就连欧洲大陆处境最糟的经济体也会一再从危机边缘走回来。一次又一次，政府都屈从了债权人实行严苛的紧缩政策的要求，而欧洲央行也抑制了市场的恐慌。

But the situation in Greece has now reached what looks like a point of no return. Banks are temporarily closed and the government has imposed capital controls — limits on the movement of funds out of the country. It seems highly likely that the government will soon have to start paying pensions and wages in scrip, in effect creating a parallel currency. And next week the country will hold a referendum on whether to accept the demands of the “troika” — the institutions representing creditor interests — for yet more austerity.

然而希腊的处境现在似乎到了无可挽回的地步，银行暂时关闭、政府采取了资本控制措施，限制资金流出希腊。一种极有可能发生的情况是，政府很快就不得不用白条来支付养老金和工资了，这实际上等于创造一种并行的货币。下周，该国就会举行公投，决定是否接受“三驾马车”采取更多紧缩措施的要求。“三驾马车”代表的是债权人的利益。

Greece should vote “no,” and the Greek government should be ready, if necessary, to leave the euro.

希腊人应该投反对票，希腊政府应该做好准备，如果有必要的话，就退出欧元区。

To understand why I say this, you need to realize that most — not all, but most — of what you’ve heard about Greek profligacy and irresponsibility is false. Yes, the Greek government was spending beyond its means in the late 2000s. But since then it has repeatedly slashed spending and raised taxes. Government employment has fallen more than 25 percent, and pensions (which were indeed much too generous) have been cut sharply. If you add up all the austerity measures, they have been more than enough to eliminate the original deficit and turn it into a large surplus.

要想理解我为什么这样说，你就需要认识到，你们听到的关于希腊人挥霍无度、不负责任的说法，大多数都是假的——不是说全都是假的，而是大多数。的确，希腊政府在2010年之前那几年里的开支没有量入为出，然而从那时开始，该国就反复削减开支、提高税收。政府雇员规模已经下降了超过25%，退休金（在过去的确太过慷慨了）也被大幅削减。如果再加上所有的紧缩举措，省下的钱早就可以填补最初的赤字，实现巨额盈余了。

So why didn’t this happen? Because the Greek economy collapsed, largely as a result of those very austerity measures, dragging revenues down with it.

那为什么这种情况没有发生？因为希腊经济崩溃了，接着又拖累了财政收入，其原因基本上就是这些紧缩举措。

And this collapse, in turn, had a lot to do with the euro, which trapped Greece in an economic straitjacket. Cases of successful austerity, in which countries rein in deficits without bringing on a depression, typically involve large currency devaluations that make their exports more competitive. This is what happened, for example, in Canada in the 1990s, and to an important extent it’s what happened in Iceland more recently. But Greece, without its own currency, didn’t have that option.

而希腊经济的崩溃，也与欧元有关——它把希腊拴在了一个经济牢笼里。在紧缩政策的成功案例中，国家能够控制赤字，同时又不造成经济衰退，它通常包括使其出口产品变得具有竞争力的大幅货币贬值。比如，1990年代的加拿大就发生了这样的情况，近些年冰岛的情形在很大程度上也是如此。然而希腊没有自己的货币，没有这一选项。

So have I just made the case for “Grexit” — Greek exit from the euro? Not necessarily. The problem with Grexit has always been the risk of financial chaos, of a banking system disrupted by panicked withdrawals and of business hobbled both by banking troubles and by uncertainty over the legal status of debts. That’s why successive Greek governments have acceded to austerity demands, and why even Syriza, the ruling leftist coalition, was willing to accept the austerity that has already been imposed. All it asked for was, in effect, a standstill on further austerity.

所以我刚才阐述的是希腊脱离欧元区的理由？并不一定是。希腊脱离欧元区的问题，一直都在于会在金融体系引发混乱的风险：恐慌引发挤兑从而扰乱银行体系；银行经营困难，而且债务的法律地位存在不确定性，这两点也都会干扰商业经营。正因为如此，历任希腊政府都迁就了紧缩要求，也正是因为如此，就连执政的激进左翼联盟(Syriza)也愿意接受现在已经施加的紧缩条款。希腊政府现在要求的，实际上只是不再增加新的紧缩措施。

But the troika was having none of it. It’s easy to get lost in the details, but the essential point now is that Greece has been presented with a take-it-or-leave-it offer that is effectively indistinguishable from the policies of the past five years.

然而三驾马车完全不肯接受。人们很容易迷失在细节当中，但现在的重点是，希腊面前摆着一些非接受不可的要求，它实际上与过去五年里的政策没有什么差别。

This is, and presumably was intended to be, an offer Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, can’t accept, because it would destroy his political reason for being. The purpose must therefore be to drive him from office, which will probably happen if Greek voters fear confrontation with the troika enough to vote yes next week.

这样的条件希腊总理阿列克西斯·齐普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)是不会接受的，因为接受的话，就会毁掉他从政的根本理由。而这么做可能是故意之举，所以其目的肯定是把他赶下台。如果希腊选民足够担心与三驾马车发生对抗，于是在下周投了赞成，齐普拉斯可能就要下台。

But they shouldn’t, for three reasons. First, we now know that ever-harsher austerity is a dead end: after five years Greece is in worse shape than ever. Second, much and perhaps most of the feared chaos from Grexit has already happened. With banks closed and capital controls imposed, there’s not that much more damage to be done.

然而出于三个原因，他们不应该投赞成票。首先，我们知道日益严苛的紧缩是死胡同，经过了五年，希腊的状况前所未有的糟。其次，人们担心希腊脱离欧元区后发生的混乱，有很多（或许是大多数）都已经发生了。银行关闭、施加资本控制，还没发生的损害已经不剩多少了。

Finally, acceding to the troika’s ultimatum would represent the final abandonment of any pretense of Greek independence. Don’t be taken in by claims that troika officials are just technocrats explaining to the ignorant Greeks what must be done. These supposed technocrats are in fact fantasists who have disregarded everything we know about macroeconomics, and have been wrong every step of the way. This isn’t about analysis, it’s about power — the power of the creditors to pull the plug on the Greek economy, which persists as long as euro exit is considered unthinkable.

最后，接受三驾马车的最后通牒，就不能再假装希腊是一个独立国家了。不要听信三驾马车官员只是技术官僚的说法，以为他们是在向无知的希腊人解释应该做什么。这些所谓的技术官僚实际上充满幻想，完全无视现存的宏观经济知识，一路上每一步都是错的。现在的局面与分析无关，但却关乎权力——债权人让希腊经济刹车的权力，只要脱离欧元区的举动是不可想象的，这样的权力就会一直存在。

So it’s time to put an end to this unthinkability. Otherwise Greece will face endless austerity, and a depression with no hint of an end.

现在正应该结束这种脱离欧洲不可想象的局面，否则希腊就会面临无穷无尽的紧缩，经济萧条也会一眼望不到尽头。